China is undergoing its long-awaited industrial revolution. There is no shortage of commentary and opinion on this dramatic period, but few have attempted to provide a coherent, in-depth, political economic framework that explains the fundamental mechanisms behind China’s rapid industrialization.
The 1960s and 1970s witnessed rapid growth in the markets for new money market
instruments, such as negotiable certificates of deposit (CDs) and Eurodollar deposits,
as banks and investors sought ways around various regulations affecting funding
Empirical analysis of the Fed’s monetary policy behavior suggests that the Fed smooths
interest rates— that is, the Fed moves the federal funds rate target in several small steps instead
of one large step with the same magnitude.
Post-World War II witnessed the largest housing boom in recent history. This paper develops a quantitative equilibrium model of tenure choice to analyze the key
determinants in the co-movement between home-ownership and house prices over the period 1940-1960.
Assuming a neoclassical production technology, this paper characterizes constrained efficient intertemporal wedges for the macro aggregate as well as the micro individual allocation of dynamic Mirrleesian economies. We frst construct "Pareto-Negishi weights" from the multipliers
on a sequence of temporary incentive constraints.
Are production factors allocated efficiently across countries? To differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences, we construct a new dataset of estimates for the output shares of natural resources for a large panel of countries.
Why has the U.S. black/white earnings gap remained around 40 percent for nearly 40 years? This paper's answer consists of a model of skill accumulation and neighborhood formation featuring a trap: Initial racial inequality and racial preferences induce racial segregation and asymmetric skill accumulation choices that perpetuate racial inequality.
Mortgages are long-term loans with nominal payments. Consequently, under incomplete
asset markets, monetary policy can affect housing investment and the economy through the
cost of new mortgage borrowing and real payments on outstanding debt.
The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates forecast booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment.
We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and their implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider a two-country environment with two currencies which can be used to settle any transactions.
The supply and demand of credit are not always well aligned and matched, as is reflected
in the countercyclical excess reserve-to-deposit ratio and interest spread between the lending
rate and the deposit rate.
What determines the earnings of a worker relative to his peers in the same
occupation? What makes a worker fail in one occupation but succeed in another?
More broadly, what are the factors that determine the productivity of a worker-occupation
match? In this paper, we propose an empirical measure of skill mismatch
for a worker-occupation match, which sheds light on these questions.
Why did the marriage probability of single females in France after World War 1 rise 50%
above its pre-war average, despite a 33% drop in the male/female singles ratio? We conjecture
that war-time disruption of the marriage market generated an abnormal abundance of
men with relatively high marriage propensities.
The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since
the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of
development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly
inadequate in explaining China’s rise.
In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP,
while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a
far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit.
Rehypothecation refers to the practice of spending a borrowed security
that is ostensibly assigned as collateral in a lending arrangement.
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium monetary model
where an “asset shortage” and incomplete markets motivates the formation
of credit relationships and the rehypothecation of assets.
We use cross-country data and instrumental variables widely used in the literature to show that (i) institutions (such as property rights and the rule of law) do not explain industrialization and (ii) agrarian countries and industrial countries have entirely different determinants for income levels.