Results 1 - 2 of 2 for yield curve has inverted signaling [Year: 2009]
Can the Term Spread Predict Output Growth and Recessions? A Survey of the Literature - Review
This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity.
Challenges in Macro-Finance Modeling - Review
This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models.
research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2009/10/21/challenges-in-macro-finance-modeling
