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Should We Fear the Inverted Yield Curve? - Page One Economics®

The yield curve inverted before every one of the last nine U.S. recessions. How do U.S. government bonds shape the yield curve, why does it invert, and is it really a warning signal? Find out in the December 2019 issue of Page One Economics®.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../page1-econ/2019/11/29/should-we-fear-the-inverted-yield-curve

Measuring Financial and Economic Risk with FRED® - Page One Economics®

FRED® (Federal Reserve Economic Data) provides access to a wide range of time-series data. Several of those series signal stress levels in financial markets and the probability of economic recession. This Special Edition of Page One Economics® describes indexes of financial and economic recession risk for new data users and can serve as a reference for advanced data users.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../page1-econ/2020/09/15/measuring-financial-and-economic-risk-with-fred