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April 1985, 
Vol. 67, No. 4
Posted 1985-04-01

Local Area Labor Statistics—A Phantom Army of the Unemployed?

by G.J. Santoni

G. J. Santoni discusses a sharp increase in official estimates of local area unemployment rates for 40 “small” (less populous) states including those in the Eighth Federal Reserve District. These estimates of unemployment show a significant run-up relative to the national unemployment rate in the late 1970s and subsequently remained high in comparison to the national unemployment rate throughout the 1979-84 period. Many observers have attributed this increase to various structural changes in the national economy that have had large and adverse consequences on particular states. This explanation is puzzling because the asserted change has had no apparent effect on other indicators of regional economic activity. In contrast, Santoni shows that the upward shift in the official estimates of the unemployment rate for the 40 small states was due to a change in the method of estimating local area unemployment. In short, pre- and post-1978 official estimates of local area unemployment rates are not comparable. The relative rise in local area unemployment rates indicated by official estimates vanishes when a consistent estimating technique is used.