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August 1978

Oil Imports and the Fall of the Dollar

by Geoffrey E. Wood and Douglas R. Mudd

… the cost of foreign oil to the U.S. economy—$45 billion this year, contributing to an estimated $30 billion trade deficit—is weakening the dollar’s value overseas and causing fresh concern about future U.S. economic stability. [This] is one of many similar statements made during the past year reflecting the widely held belief that oil imports are the cause of the fall in the value of the dollar. Since imported oil in 1977 was the largest single component of total U.S. merchandise imports, the assertion is superficially plausible. However, a slightly more wide-ranging look at the facts provides substantial evidence that this contention is incorrect.