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First Quarter 2022

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Posted 2022-01-14

Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model with “Acquired Immunity”

by Juan Esteban Carranza, Juan David Martin, and Álvaro José Riascos

We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data.

Posted 2022-01-14

Sectoral Impacts of Trade Wars

by Wan-Jung Cheng and Ping Wang

In recent years, we have witnessed rising trade protectionism with broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products. In this article, we develop an accounting framework to evaluate the sectoral impacts of the current U.S.-China trade war.

Posted 2022-01-14

The Impact of Juvenile Conviction on Human Capital and Labor Market Outcomes

by Limor Golan, Rong Hai, and Hayley Wabiszewski

This article documents the long-term relationship among juvenile conviction, occupational choices, employment, wages, and recidivism. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we document that youth convicted at or before age 17 have lower a full-time employment rate and lower wage growth rate even after 10 years in the labor market.

Posted 2022-01-14

Further Evidence on Greenspan’s Conundrum

by Cletus C. Coughlin and Daniel L. Thornton

During his February 2005 congressional testimony, Alan Greenspan identified what he termed a conundrum. Despite the fact that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had increased the federal funds rate 150 basis points since June 2004, the 10-year Treasury yield remained essentially unchanged.