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Fourth Quarter 2021

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Posted 2021-10-18

Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock

by Sang Yoon Lee, Minsung Park, and Yongseok Shin

The destructive economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was distributed unequally across the population. A worker's gender, race and ethnicity, age, education, industry, and occupation all mattered. We analyze the initial negative effect and its lingering effect through the recovery phase, across demographic and socioeconomic groups.

Posted 2021-10-18

Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials

by George-Levi Gayle, Mariana Odio-Zuniga, and Prasanthi Ramakrishnan

This article analyzes the changes in family structure, fertility behavior, and the division of labor within the household from the Silent generation (cohort born in 1940-49) to the Millennial generation (cohort born in 1980-89). Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this article documents the main trends and life-cycle profiles for each generation.

Posted 2021-10-18

Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis

by Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, Enrique Martínez-García, and Christopher J. Neely

We review the macroeconomic performance during the Global Financial Crisis and subsequent economic expansion, as well as the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound.

Posted 2021-10-18

Assessing Labor Market Conditions Using High-Frequency Data

by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin and Maggie Isaacson

When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in March 2020, the U.S. economy experienced a sharp, unexpected recession with large employment losses. The information on employment available from traditional data sources arrives with a lag and does not promptly reflect sudden changes in labor market conditions. In this article, we discuss how new high-frequency data from Homebase and Ultimate Kronos Group can offer critical information on the state of labor markets in real time.

Posted 2021-10-18

Stability and Equilibrium Selection in Learning Models: A Note of Caution

by YiLi Chien, In-Koo Cho, and B. Ravikumar

Relative to rational expectations models, learning models provide a theory of expectation formation where agents use observed data and a learning rule. Given the possibility of multiple equilibria under rational expectations, the learning literature often uses stability as a criterion to select an equilibrium.