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First Quarter 2019

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Posted 2019-01-14

Understanding Lowflation

by David Andolfatto and Andrew Spewak

Central banks are viewed as having a demonstrated ability to lower long-run inflation. Since the Financial Crisis, however, the central banks in some jurisdictions seem almost powerless to accomplish the opposite. 

Posted 2019-01-14

How Have Shanghai, Saudi Arabia, and Supply Chains Affected U.S. Inflation Dynamics?

by Kristin J. Forbes

Understanding and forecasting inflation has always been a key focus of macroeconomics and monetary policymaking. Historically, many macroeconomists and central banks have relied on the “Phillips curve” framework for this purpose. 

Posted 2019-01-14

Data Revisions of Aggregate Hours Worked: Implications for the Europe-U.S. Hours Gap

by Alexander Bick, Bettina Brüggemann, and Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln

In this article, we document that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Conference Board’s Total Economy Database (TED) have substantially revised their measures of hours worked over time. Relying on the data used by Rogerson (2006) and Ohanian et al. (2008), we find that, for 2003, hours worked per person in Europe is 18 percent lower than hours worked in the United States. 

Posted 2019-01-14

Pork-Barrel Politics and Polarization

by Aaron Hedlund

This article explores how earmarks shape the ideological composition of elected officials in Congress. Relative to the classic median voter theorem, the framework developed here introduces multiple legislative districts and incorporates a desire for local earmarks in the specification of voter preferences.