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September/October 2009, Part 1, 
Vol. 91, No. 5
Posted 2009-09-01

Can the Term Spread Predict Output Growth and Recessions? A Survey of the Literature

by David C. Wheelock and Mark E. Wohar

This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity.

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