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Our most academic publication offers research and surveys on monetary policy, national and international developments, banking, and more. The content is written for an economically informed readership—from the undergraduate student to the PhD.


Vol. 86, No. 5 (Posted 2004-09-01)

Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan

by Daniel L. Thornton

The EH in Japan. Deregulation of financial markets in Japan has prompted several investigations of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates. Daniel Thornton expands this literature by estimating a general VAR of the long- and short-term rates and testing restrictions implied by the EH under alternative assumptions about the stationarity of interest rates. He also considers the implications of nonstationarity of interest rates for the EH itself.

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