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Our most academic publication offers research and surveys on monetary policy, national and international developments, banking, and more. The content is written for an economically informed readership—from the undergraduate student to the PhD.

Vol. 86, No. 1 (Posted 2004-01-01)

Subjective Probabilities: Psychological Theories and Economic Applications

by Abbigail Chiodo, Massimo Guidolin, Michael T. Owyang, and Makoto Shimoji

The psychology gap. In their models, economists assume people plan their lives rationally. Psychologists show that people rely on loose rules of thumb to predict the future. In this article, the authors discuss the gap.

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