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March/April 1995, 
Vol. 77, No. 2
Posted 1995-03-01

U.S. Official Forecasts of G-7 Economies, 1976-90

by Michael Ulan, William G. Dewald, and James Bullard

Decisions concerning monetary and fiscal policy often depend in part on forecasts of the future course of real activity. But how accurate are those forecasts? Michael Ulan, William G. Dewald and James B. Bullard examine the relative accuracy of forecasts for inflation and economic growth made by the U.S. government for G-7 economies from 1976 to 1990. They compare the official forecasts to those made by other major private and public groups, including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ) and the Federal Reserve.

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