Skip to main content

November 1985, 
Vol. 67, No. 9
Posted 1985-11-01

Monthly Economic Indicators: A Closer Look at the Coincident Index

by Keith M. Carlson

Keith M. Carlson discusses the Commerce Department’s composite index of coincident indicators. This index condenses the information from the most important monthly economic indicators into one summary measure. The component indicators from which the composite index is derived include employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments in constant (1972) dollars, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales in constant (1972) dollars. After describing the coincident index and its component indicators, Carlson discusses the Commerce Department’s scoring system. This system is based on seven criteria. The focus of the article, however, is on the criterion of cyclical performance. An examination of the component indicators reveals that each indicator generally conforms well with the National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle reference points, particularly when viewed with some perspective.