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May 1982

Money, Credit and Velocity

by Mack Ott

Have the links between monetary aggregates and national economic policy variables—that is, GNP, inflation, and real economic growth—been severed by a host of financial and credit market innovations? If so, then a monetary policy based on targeting the growth of a monetary aggregate would become increasingly ineffective and inappropriate, as credit arrangements are substituted for monetary payments. This article provides a theoretical framework in which to address the question and to examine empirical evidence bearing on the purported policy consequences. The author finds that, despite recent claims to the contrary, the growth of the monetary aggregates is still reliably linked to the economic variables of interest to policymakers.