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2017 Fourth Quarter

2017 Fourth Quarter

A majority of agricultural bankers in the Eighth Federal Reserve District reported that farm income declined during the fourth quarter of 2017 compared with a year earlier. This finding is consistent with the past several surveys. Although bankers were modestly more optimistic about the near-term prospects for farm income, they still expect income in the first quarter of 2018 to fall below year-earlier levels.

Actual and expected farm household spending and capital expenditures also remain below year-earlier levels. Quality farmland and ranch and pastureland values posted solid increases in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Quality farmland values rose 5 percent in the fourth quarter, while ranchland and pastureland values surged nearly 15 percent. Cash rents for both land categories also increased in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

Compared with three months earlier, a slightly larger percentage of bankers reported that the demand for bank loans increased in the fourth quarter relative to a year earlier. Some further strengthening in loan demand is expected in the first quarter of 2018. Proportionately more bankers reported an erosion in loan repayment rates between the third and fourth quarters of 2017. Except for interest rates on loans secured by farm real estate, rates on most fixed- and variable-rate loan products were little changed in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter.

There were three special questions in this quarter's survey. The first two questions asked bankers about the health of the rural economy in their area. A majority of bankers reported that the economy in their area could be characterized as poor to fair at the end of 2017. About three-quarters of bankers expect no change in local economic conditions in 2018. The final question asked bankers about their expectation for the return on farmland in 2018. Nearly all bankers believe that farmland returns in 2018 will be greater than 0 percent but less than 5 percent.

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