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These brief essays delve into the economic issues of the day for a generally informed readership.

2015 / No. 27
Posted 2015-12-22

The Unemployment and Participation Rates for Aggregate Human Capital

by Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Faisal Sohail

To assess the loss in aggregate production, unemployment and labor force participation must account for the human capital of workers.

2015 / No. 26
Posted 2015-11-06

Age and Gender Differences in Long-Term Unemployment: Before and After the Great Recession

by Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Faisal Sohail

Long-term unemployment increased disproportionately for older women after the Great Recession.

2015 / No. 25
Posted 2015-11-06

Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure

by Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, and Michael T. Owyang

Assessing inflation’s likely path matters to policymakers and those in financial markets.

2015 / No. 24
Posted 2015-10-19

China’s Slowdown: Is Currency Appreciation to Blame?

by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

Evidence suggests that the exchange rate appreciation is not to blame for China’s slowdown.

2015 / No. 23
Posted 2015-10-02

India’s Atypical Structural Transformation

by Manisha Goel and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

Does India have a stagnant manufacturing sector or an exceptionally productive services sector?

2015 / No. 22
Posted 2015-09-08

What Drives Household Debt?

by Juan M. Sánchez and Lijun Zhu

Reduced credit creation, and not increased credit destruction, has been the key driver of the recent evolution of U.S. household debt.

2015 / No. 21
Posted 2015-09-04

The Greek Debt Crisis: What Are the Potential Scenarios Going Forward?

by Ana Maria Santacreu

Sound macroeconomic policies are key to preventing solvency crises in a currency union.

2015 / No. 20
Posted 2015-08-21

How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Employment?

by Maria E. Canon and Yang Liu

Texas accounted for 37 percent of the decline in the U.S. job market in March.

2015 / No. 19
Posted 2015-08-18

Secular Stagnation and Returns on Capital

by Paul Gomme, B. Ravikumar, and Peter Rupert

Returns on government debt bear little resemblance to returns on productive capital.

2015 / No. 18
Posted 2015-08-07

Financial Engineering Versus Cancer

by Christopher J. Neely

If financial engineering can distribute the pecuniary risk of medical research, then it can play a role in curing cancer.

2015 / No. 17
Posted 2015-07-31

A Cross-Country Comparison of Labor Force Participation

by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin and Hannah Shell

The labor force participation rates for prime-working-age men have been falling across countries.

2015 / No. 16
Posted 2015-07-17

Is Inflation Running Hot or Cold?

by Joseph McGillicuddy and Lowell R. Ricketts

Changes in the aggregate price level can be traced back to changes in the underlying components.

2015 / No. 15
Posted 2015-07-10

Synchronization of Business Cycles and the Extensive Margin of Trade

by Ana Maria Santacreu

The business cycle is more highly synchronized between countries that trade more differentiated intermediate products with each other.

2015 / No. 14
Posted 2015-06-24

Lagging Long-Term Wage Growth

by YiLi Chien and Maria A. Arias

The long-run trend of average wages has consistently failed to keep pace with overall economic growth.

2015 / No. 13
Posted 2015-06-19

The Relationship Between Labor Market Conditions and Wage Growth

by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin and Hannah Shell

The negative relationship between unemployment and earnings growth seems to hold across states.

2015 / No. 12
Posted 2015-06-05

Liftoff and the Natural Rate of Interest

by William Dupor

The natural rate is viewed in some circles as a useful concept for the FOMC in setting the federal funds rate.

2015 / No. 11
Posted 2015-05-15

Safe Occupations Are Growing

by Amanda Michaud and David Wiczer

Health problems and disability claims have declined in the fastest-growing occupations.
2015 / No. 10
Posted 2015-05-11

How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?

by Christopher J. Neely

It is puzzling why large monthly or quarterly oil price changes predict very small changes in the CPI but daily oil prices predict large changes in breakeven inflation.
2015 / No. 9
Posted 2015-05-06

How Accurate Are Measures of Long-Term Inflation Expectations?

by Kevin L. Kliesen

Inflation expectations formed in the mid-2000s weren’t very accurate—in large part because of the shocks from the recession and financial crisis.
2015 / No. 8
Posted 2015-05-01

Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand Behind the Slump?

by Alejandro Badel and Joseph McGillicuddy

A standard decomposition suggests the role of oil supply (understood as the current physical availability of crude) has been small.
2015 / No. 7
Posted 2015-04-10

Student Loan Delinquency: A Big Problem Getting Worse?

by Juan M. Sánchez and Lijun Zhu

A delinquency rate of 15 percent for all student loan borrowers implies a delinquency rate of 27.3 percent for borrowers with loans in repayment.
2015 / No. 6
Posted 2015-03-27

Jobs: More Slowly Created, More Slowly Destroyed

by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin

Reduced dynamism in the labor market is consistent not only with more stable, longer-lived jobs but also longer joblessness and less job switching.
2015 / No. 5
Posted 2015-02-27

Measuring Labor Productivity: Technology and the Labor Supply

by Ana Maria Santacreu

GDP per hour (rather than GDP per capita) better measures labor productivity.
2015 / No. 4
Posted 2015-02-13

Firm Size and Employment Dynamics

by Maria E. Canon and Yang Liu

Large firms have been creating

a significantly higher fraction of jobs since the Great Recession.

2015 / No. 3
Posted 2015-02-06

Are Oil Price Declines Good for the Economy?

by Kevin L. Kliesen

As expected, falling crude oil prices lead to falling gasoline prices and lower inflation.
2015 / No. 2
Posted 2015-01-30

The Economic Fundamentals of Emerging Market Volatility

by Ana Maria Santacreu

Countries with weaker economic fundamentals experienced higher currency volatility and capital flows.
2015 / No. 1
Posted 2015-01-09

Global Monetary Policy Amidst Deflationary Concerns

by Ana Maria Santacreu

Fear of demand-driven deflation calls for expansionary economic policies.

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