Skip to main content

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N)

Source(s): Piger, Jeremy Max
Chauvet, Marcelle
Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities  

Description of growth rate formulas  
Not Seasonally Adjusted 
Notes: Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at
Updated: 2015-11-02 3:31 PM CST 

Note: CSV files do not contain header information.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Follow us

Twitter logo Google Plus logo Facebook logo YouTube logo LinkedIn logo
Back to Top
Click to send us feedback