Working Papers

"An Evaluation of Event-Study Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: The Reasonable Person Standard"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2013-033B, March 2014

"How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?"
with  Clemens J.M. Kool
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2012-063A, December 2012

"The Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2012-050A, October 2012

"Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2012-036A, September 2012

"Evidence on The Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2012-015A, October 2012

"Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis"
with  Massimo Guidolin
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2010-013B, January 2011

"Revisiting the Predictability of Bond Risk Premia"
with  Giorgio Valente
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2009-009A, March 2009

"Resolving the Unbiasedness Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2009-002A, January 2009

"Monetary Policy: Why Money Matters and Interest Rates Don't"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2008-011A, April 2008

"The Unusual Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Yields: A Conundrum or an Instance of Goodhart's Law?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2007-039C, August 2009

"Resolving the Unbiasedness and Forward Premium Puzzles"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2007-014A, February 2007

"The Daily and Policy-Relevant Liquidity Effect"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2007-001B, December 2006

"The Daily Liquidity Effect"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2006-020A, April 2006

"A New Federal Funds Rate Target Series: September 27, 1982 — December 31, 1993"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2005-032A, May 2005

"A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U. S. Interest Rates to News"
with  Marco Lippi
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-013A, July 2004

"Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-010A, June 2004

"Do Bank Loan Rates Exhibit a Countercyclical Mark-up?"
with  Michael J. Dueker
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1997-004A, February 1997

"Discount Rate Policies of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1996-001A, February 1996

"Asymmetry in the Prime Rate and Firms' Preference for Internal Finance"
with  Michael J. Dueker
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1994-017A, January 1994

"Should Consumer Expenditures be the Scale Variable in Empirical Money Demand Equations?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1988-003A, January 1988

"Weighted Monetary Aggregates As Intermediate Targets"
with  Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1985-010A, November 1984

"Tests of Price Sluggishness in the U.K."
with  K. Alec Chrystal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1984-019A, January 1984

"A Note on the Relative Efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt and OLS Estimators when the Autocorrelation Process has a Finite Past"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1984-002A, January 1984

"The Real-Balance Effect with Resource-Using Money: A Capital-Theoretic Interpretation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1983-010A, January 1983

"Complete Results for Lag Length Selection"
with  Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1983-009A, January 1983

"Endpoint Constraints and the St. Louis Equation: A Clarification"
with  Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1983-001A, January 1983

"The Appropriate Autocorrelation Transformation when the Autocorrelation Process has a Finite Past"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1982-002B, February 1982