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Daniel L. Thornton

Emeritus

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
1976

M.S. Economics
Arizona State University
1969

B.A. Economics
Parsons College
1967

Contact Info

Fax: (314) 444-8731

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442



Journal Publications

"Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis"
with Massimo Guidolin
International Journal of Forecasting, October-December 2018, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 636-664

"Effectiveness of QE: An Assessment of the Event-Study Evidence"
Journal of Macroeconomics, June 2017, Vol. 52, pp. 56-74

"Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March-April 2018, Vol. 50, No. 2-3, pp. 513-43

"Federal Reserve Mischief and the Credit Trap"
The Cato Journal, Spring/Summer 2017, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 263-285

"Understanding the Predictability of Excess Returns"
Kredit und Kapital, December 2016, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 485-505

"Guest Editor’s Introduction: What Monetary Policy Can and Cannot Do"
Journal of Macroeconomics, March 2016, Vol. 47 (Part A), pp. 1-4

"Requiem for QE"
Cato Institute Policy Analysis, November 2015, No. 783

"Monetary Policy: Why Money Matters, and Interest Rates Don’t"
Journal of Macroeconomics, June 2014, Vol. 40, pp. 202-13
Working Paper

"The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Actions Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks"
Oxford Economic Papers, January 2014, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 67-87
Working Paper

"The Effect of Underreporting on LIBOR Rates"
with Andrea Monticini
Journal of Macroeconomics, September 2013, Vol. 37, pp. 345-48
Working Paper

"Out-of-Sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset-Allocation Perspective"
with Giorgio Valente
Review of Financial Studies, October 2012, Vol. 25, No. 10, pp. 3141-3168
Working Paper

"The U.S. Deficit/Debt Problem: A Longer-Run Perspective"
University of Louisville Law Review, June 2012, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 625-42

"The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us"
with Ellen E. Meade
Oxford Economic Papers, April 2012, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp. 197-216
Working Paper

"The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value"
with Pasquale Della Corte and Lucio Sarno
Journal of Financial Economics, July 2008, Vol. 89, No. 1, pp. 158-74
Working Paper

"What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence From a Spectral Perspective"
with Lucio Sarno and Yi Wen
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, April 2007, Vol. 69, No. 2, pp. 293-319
Working Paper

"The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields"
with Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, March 2007, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 81-100
Working Paper

"When Did the FOMC Begin Targeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, December 2006, Vol. 38, No. 8, pp. 2039-71
Working Paper

"Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March 2006, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 511-42
Working Paper

"Test of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Anomalies When the Short-Term Rate Is the Federal Funds Rate"
Journal of Banking & Finance, October 2005, Vol. 29, No. 10, pp. 2541-56
Working Paper

"Federal Funds Rate Prediction"
with Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2005, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 449-71
Working Paper

"A Note on the Expectations Hypothesis at the Founding of the Fed"
with Clemens J.M. Kool
Journal of Banking & Finance, December 2004, Vol. 28, No. 12, pp. 3055-68
Working Paper

"Forecasting the Treasury's Balance at the Fed"
Journal of Forecasting, August 2004, Vol. 23, No. 5, pp. 357-71
Working Paper

"The Fed and Short-Term Rates: Is It Open Market Operations, Open Mouth Operations or Interest Rate Smoothing?"
Journal of Banking & Finance, March 2004, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 475-98
Working Paper

"Monetary Policy Transparency: Transparent About What?"
Manchester School, September 2003, Vol. 71, No. 5, pp. 478-97
Working Paper

"The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds Rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation"
with Lucio Sarno
Journal of Banking & Finance, June 2003, Vol. 27, No. 6, pp. 1079-1110
Working Paper

"The Federal Reserve's Operating Procedure, Nonborrowed Reserves, Borrowed Reserves and the Liquidity Effect"
Journal of Banking & Finance, September 2001, Vol. 25, No. 9, pp. 1717-39
Working Paper

"Lifting the Veil of Secrecy From Monetary Policy: Evidence From the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 2000, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 155-67
Working Paper

"The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements: What Is Behind the Announcement Effect"
Journal of Banking & Finance, January 1998, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 83-108
Working Paper

"The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 1995, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 838-847

"Why Do T-Bill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 1994, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 839-50
Working Paper

"Why Do Market Interest Rates Respond to Money Announcements?"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 1991, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 33-60
Working Paper

"Comments on 'Modeling the Demand for Money in Large Industrial Countries Buffer Stock and Error Correction Approaches' by James M. Boughton and George S. Tavlas (1990)"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Summer 1990, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. pp. 463-67

"The Effect of Unanticipated Money on the Money and Foreign Exchange Markets"
Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1989, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 573-87
Working Paper

"On the Informational Content of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates"
with K. Alec Chrystal
Journal of International Money and Finance, September 1988, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 321-330

"The Federal Reserve's Operating Procedure, Nonborrowed Reserves, Borrowed Reserves and the Liquidity Effect"
Journal of Banking & Finance, September 2001, Vol. 25, No. 9, pp. 1717-39
Working Paper

"The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements: What Is Behind the Announcement Effect"
Journal of Banking & Finance, January 1998, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 83-108
Working Paper

"A Note on the Efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt Estimator of the AR(1) Regression Model"
Journal of Econometrics, November 1987, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 369-76
Working Paper

"Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment"
with R. W. Hafer
Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1986, Vol. 68, No. 3, pp. 539-42
Working Paper

"Monetary Anticipations and the Demand for Money: Reply to MacKinnon and Milbourne"
with Jack Carr and Michael R. Darby
Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1985, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 251-257

"The Appropriate Interest Rate and Scale Variable in Money Demand: Results from Non-Nested Tests"
Applied Economics, August 1985, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 735-44
Working Paper

"The Andersen-Jordan Equation, Revisited"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1985, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 419-32
Working Paper

"Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality Between Money and Income"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1985, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 164-78
Working Paper

"A Note on Almon's Endpoint Constraints"
with Dallas S. Batten
Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 1985, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 683-90
Working Paper

"The Government Budget Constraint with Endogenous Money"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1984, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 57-67
Working Paper

"Discount Rate Changes and the Foreign Exchange Market"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1984, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 279-92
Working Paper

"Bank Money, Net Wealth and the Real-Balance Effect"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1983, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 105-17

"The Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money: Additional Evidence"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1982, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 325-38

"Maximum Likelihood Estimates of a Partial Adjustment-Adaptive Expectations Model of the Demand for Money"
Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp. 325-29

"Bank Money as Net Wealth: A Comment"
Atlantic Economic Journal, December 1981, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 43-45

"The Empirical Significance of the Real Balance Effect"
with Paul E. Smith
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1980, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 213-32

"In-Service Education and Its Effects on Secondary Students: A New Approach"
with George M. Vredeveld
Journal of Economic Education, Spring 1977, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 93-99


 




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