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Daniel L. Thornton

Emeritus

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
1976

M.S. Economics
Arizona State University
1969

B.A. Economics
Parsons College
1967

Contact Info

Fax: (314) 444-8731

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442



Review Articles

"How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?"
with Clemens J.M. Kool
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2015
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2015.303-22

"Making Sense of Dissents: A History of FOMC Dissents"
with David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2014
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.96.213-227

"QE: Is There a Portfolio Balance Effect?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2014
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.96.55-72

"The U.S. Deficit/Debt Problem: A Longer-Run Perspective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.441-456

"The Dual Mandate: Has the Fed Changed Its Objective?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.117-134

"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Need to Go to Now? A Perspective from the U.S. Experience"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.65-81

"How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.21-39

"The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2011
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.93.439-454

"The Relationship Between the Daily and Policy-Relevant Liquidity Effects"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2010
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.92.73-88

"The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2009
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.91.13-22

"A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance"
with Daniel J. McDonald
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2008
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.90.31-46

"Open Market Operations and the Federal Funds Rate"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2007
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.89.549-570

"The Lower and Upper Bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Long-Run Inflation Objective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2007
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.89.183-194

"Editors' Introduction"
with Athanasios Orphanides
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2005, Part 2
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.139-144

"Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2004
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.21-40

"Editors' Introduction"
with Jeremy M. Piger
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2004
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.3-14

"The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Identification in Structural VARs"
with Lucio Sarno
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2004
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.49-60

"The FOMC’s Balance-of-Risks Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions"
with Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.37-50

"Editor's Introduction"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.7-14

"Market Anticipations of Monetary Policy Actions"
with William Poole and Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.65-94

"Identifying the Liquidity Effect at the Daily Frequency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2001
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.83.59-78

"Editor's Introduction"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2001
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.83.7-16

"The Expected Federal Budget Surplus: How Much Confidence Should the Public and Policymakers Place in the Projections"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2001
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.83.11-24

"A History of the Asymmetric Policy Directive"
with David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2000
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.82.1-16

"Money in a Theory of Exchange"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2000
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.82.35-62

"Tests of the Market's Reaction to Federal Funds Rate Target Changes"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1998
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.80.25-36

"Using Federal Funds Futures Rates to Predict Federal Reserve Actions"
with John C. Robertson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1997
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.79.45-53

"Does the Fed's New Policy of Immediate Disclosure Affect the Market?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1996
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.78.77-88

"The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability: An Assessment of Howitt's Rule"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 1996
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.78.23-38

"Is There a Case for "Moderate" Inflation?"
with Alvin L. Marty
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1995
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.77.27-38

"Editor's Introduction: Channels of Policy Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference"
with David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 1995
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.77.vii-xii

"Financial Innovation Deregulation and the "Credit View" of Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 1994
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.76.31-49

"An Extended Series of Divisia Monetary Aggregates"
with Piyu Yue
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1992
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.74.35-52

"Targeting M2: The Issue of Monetary Control"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1992
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.74.23-35

"Alternative Measures of the Monetary Base: What Are the Differences and Are They Important?"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1991
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.73.19-35

"The Multiplier Approach to the Money Supply Process: A Precautionary Note"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1991
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.73.47-64

"A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income"
with David A. Dickey and Dennis W. Jansen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 1991
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.73.58-78

"Do Government Deficits Matter?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1990
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.72.25-39

"The Link Between M1 and the Monetary Base in the 198O's"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1989
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.71.35-52.usa

"Tests of Covered Interest Rate Parity"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1989
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.71.55-66.owi

"The Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Spending: A Review"
with K. Alec Chrystal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1988
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.70.48-60.wqs

"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Short-Term Interest Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 1988
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.70.53-72.bok

"The Borrowed-Reserves Operating Procedures: Theory and Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 1988
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.70.30-54.phh

"Solving the 1980s' Velocity Puzzle: A Progress Report"
with Courtenay C. Stone
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, August/September 1987
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.69.5-23.ktb

"The Monetary-Fiscal Policy Debate and the Andersen-Jordan Equation"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1986
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.68.9-17.itk

"The Discount Rate and Market Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, August/September 1986
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.68.5-21.ssw

"The Cost of Checkable Deposits in the United States"
with Kenneth C. Carraro
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, April 1986
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.68.19-27.qvh

"Are Weighted Monetary Aggregates Better Than Simple-Sum M1?"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1985
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.67.29-40.tmm

"Money Demand Dynamics: Some New Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March 1985
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.67.14-23.yfx

"The Discount Rate, Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Rates: An Analysis with Daily Data"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, February 1985
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.67.22-30.twr

"Monetizing the Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, December 1984
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.66.30-43.rjf

"An Early Look at the Volatility of Money and Interest Rates under CRR"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1984
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.66.26-32.vyu

"How Robust Are the Policy Conclusions of the St. Louis Equation?: Some Further Evidence"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1984
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.66.26-32.day

"Why Does Velocity Matter?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, December 1983
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.65.5-13.wxn

"Lagged and Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting: An Alternative View"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November 1983
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.65.26-33.xpk

"The FOMC in 1982: De-emphasizing M1"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1983
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.65.26-35.nyu

"M1 or M2: Which Is the Better Monetary Target?"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1983
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.65.36-42.aeq

"Polynomial Distributed Lags and the Estimation of the St. Louis Equation"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, April 1983
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.65.13-25.pmo

"Simple Analytics of the Money Supply Process and Monetary Control"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1982
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.64.22-39.mmx

"The Discount Rate and Market Interest Rates: What's the Connection?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1982
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.64.3-14.pah

"The FOMC in 1981: Monetary Control in a Changing Financial Environment"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, April 1982
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.64.3-22.jej


Economic Synopses Articles

"Are Virtual “Currencies” Likely to Succeed?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2014.8

"Has QE Been Effective?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 3
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2014.3

"Is Nominal GDP Targeting a Rule Policymakers Could Accept?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 29
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.29

"Does the Economy Need More Spending Now?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 24
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.24

"A Perspective on Possible Fed Exit Strategies"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.21

"Why Is Output Growth So Slow?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 4
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.4

"Is the FOMC’s Unemployment Rate Threshold a Good Idea?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.1

"A Proposal for Improving Forward Guidance"
with Leo Krippner
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 27
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.27

"Verbal Guidance and the Efficacy of Forward Guidance"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 26
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.26

"The Efficacy of the FOMC’s Zero Interest Rate Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 23
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.23

"The Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Tale from Two Decades"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 18
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.18

"Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 4
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.4

"Inflation Objective and Policy Credibility: A Potential Problem for the FOMC"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 38
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.38

"Why Is Employment Growth So Low?"
with Juan M. Sánchez
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 37
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.37

"The FOMC’s Interest Rate Policy: How Long Is the Long Run?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 29
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.29

"Tax Rates and Revenue Since the 1970s"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 24
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.24

"The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.21

"The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 20
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.20

"Is the FOMC’s Policy Inflating Asset Prices?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 18
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.18

"Core Versus Headline Inflation Again"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 16
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.16

"Core Versus Headline Inflation: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 12
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.12

"Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 7
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.7

"What Does the Change in the FOMC's Statement of Objectives Mean?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.1

"Monetary Policy and Longer-Term Rates: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 36
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.36

"The Downside of Quantitative Easing"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 34
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.34

"Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth, Employment, or Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 29
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.29

"Can the FOMC Increase the Funds Rate Without Reducing Reserves?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 28
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.28

"Which Comes First: Inflation or the FOMC's Funds Rate Target?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 25
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.25

"Monetizing the Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 14
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.14

"The Case for “Inflation First” Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 47
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.47

"Personal Saving and Economic Growth"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 46
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.46

"Would Quantitative Easing Sooner Have Tempered the Financial Crisis and Economic Recession?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 37
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.37

"What Caused Long-Term Rates to Rise?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 32
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.32

"Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 30
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.30

"The Effect of the Fed’s Purchase of Long-Term Treasuries on the Yield Curve"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 25
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.25

"What the Libor-OIS Spread Says"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 24
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.24

"A Perspective on the Current Recession: It’s Not the “Worst Case” Yet"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 2
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.2

"Is There Less Agreement About Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.1

"Walter Bagehot, the Discount Window, and TAF"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 27
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2008.27

"Housing and the "R" Word"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 5
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2008.5

"Subprime Side Effects in the Federal Funds Market"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 23
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.23

"Measure for Measure: Headline versus Core Inflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.21

"The Federal Funds and Long-Term Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 10
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.10

"The Fed’s Inflation Objective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 15
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.15

"“Measured Pace” in the Conduct of Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 6
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.6

"Greenspan’s Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off"
with Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.1

"The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.21

"Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 12
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.12

"Public Officials and Job Creation"
with Thomas A. Garrett
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 22
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.22

"The FOMC’s “Considerable Period”"
with Richard G. Anderson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 3
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.3

"Making Monetary Policy More Transparent"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.1

"Alternative Policy Weapons?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 18
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.18

"Predictability and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 15
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.15

"How Effective Is Monetary Policy?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.1

"Withering Dissents"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2002, No. 18
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2002.18

"Does a Mild Recession Imply a Weak Recovery?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2002, No. 9
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2002.9