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William T. Gavin

Emeritus

Education

Ph.D. Economics
Ohio State University
1982

B.A. Economics
Xavier University
1970

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 873-8422
Fax: (314) 444-8731

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442



Review Articles

"Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2018
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2018.151-69

"Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy"
with  Diana A. Cooke
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2015
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.97.1-24

"Introduction and Related Material"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2013
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.95.449-450

"Taylor-Type Rules and Total Factor Productivity"
with  Benjamin D. Keen and  Michael R. Pakko
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.41-64

"What Explains the Growth in Commodity Derivatives?"
with  Parantap Basu
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2011
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.93.37-48

"Editor's Introduction"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2010
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.92.225-28

"More Money: Understanding Recent Changes in the Monetary Base"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2009
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.91.49-60

"FOMC Consensus Forecasts"
with  Geetanjali Pande
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2008, Part 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.90.149-164

"Forecasting Inflation and Output: Comparing Data-Rich Models with Simple Rules"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2008, Part 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.90.175-192

"Editor's Introduction"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2007
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.89.209-214

"Recent Trends in Homeownership"
with Carlos Garriga and  Don Schlagenhauf
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2006
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.88.397-412

"The Monetary Instrument Matters"
with  Benjamin D. Keen and  Michael R. Pakko
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2005
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.633-658

"Monetary Policy and Commodity Futures"
with  Michelle T. Armesto
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2005
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.395-406

"FOMC Forecast: Is All the Information in the Central Tendency?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2003
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.85.27-46

"Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.15-28

"Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?"
with  Rachel J. Mandal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2001
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.83.11-20

"The Nominal Facts and the October 1979 Policy Change"
with  Finn E. Kydland
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2000
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.82.39-62

"What Do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves Imply for Price-Level Targeting?"
with  Robert Dittmar
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2000
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.82.21-30

"Editor"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2000
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.82.1-2

"Price-Level Uncertainty and Inflation Targeting"
with  Robert Dittmar and  Finn E. Kydland
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1999
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.81.23-34

"The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Price-Level Targets"
with  Robert Dittmar and  Finn E. Kydland
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 1999
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.81.23-32

"The FOMC in 1995: A Step Closer to Inflation Targeting?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1996
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.78.29-48


Economic Synopses Articles

"The Mechanics Behind Manufacturing Job Losses"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 20
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.20

"Household Wealth: Has It Recovered?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 16
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.16

"Commodity Futures Index Trading and Spot Oil Prices"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.21

"What Is Potential GDP and Why Does It Matter?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 11
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.11

"CPI Inflation: Running on Motor Fuel"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 13
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.13

"Deflation and the Fisher Equation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 27
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.27

"Are Low Interest Rates Good for Consumers?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 3
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.3

"Monetary Policy Stance: The View from Consumption Spending"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 41
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.41

"Index Funds: Hedgers or Speculators?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 17
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2008.17

"Measuring Consensus as the Midpoint of the Central Tendency"
with  Geetanjali Pande
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 3
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2008.3

"Stable Interest Rates Follow Stable Prices"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 17
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.17

"Economic Forecasts: Public and Private"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.8

"Who’s Worrying about Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 28
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.28

"Trends in Home Ownership"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 29
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.29

"M2 and “Reigniting” Inflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 13
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.13

"Gasoline Affordability"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 27
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.27

"How Money Matters"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 13
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.13

"PPI versus CPI Inflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 5
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.5


Regional Economist Articles

"The Ups and Downs of Inflation and the Role of Fed Credibility"
with  Diana A. Cooke
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2014, Vol. 22, No. 2

"Low Interest Rates Have Yet To Spur Job Growth"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2013, Vol. 21, No. 2

"Movin' On Up"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 2

"What Should a Central Bank Look Like?"
with  William Poole
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2003, Vol. 11, No. 3

"Predicting Inflation: Food For Thought"
with  Rachel J. Mandal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2002, Vol. 10, No. 1

"When GDP Growth and Inflation Send Mixed Signals"
with  Rachel J. Mandal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2000, Vol. 8, No. 3

"Inside the Briefcase: The Art of Predicting the Federal Reserve"
with  Rachel J. Mandal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2000, Vol. 8, No. 3