Monetary Aggregates and Their Components
Implied One-Year Forward Rates are calculated by this Bank from Treasury constant maturity yields. Yields to maturity, R(m), for securities with m = 1,..., 10 years to maturity are obtained by linear interpolation between reported yields. These yields are smoothed by fitting the regression suggested by Nelson and Siegel (1987), R(m) = a0 + (a1 + a2)(1 – e–m/50)/(m/50) – a2 × e–m/50, and forward rates are calculated from these smoothed yields using equation (a) in table 13.1 of Shiller (1990), f(m) = [D(m)R(m) – D(m–1)] / [D(m) – D(m–1)], where duration is approximated as D(m) = (1 – e–R(m) × m)/R(m). These rates are linear approximations to the true instantaneous forward rates; see Shiller (1990). For a discussion of the use of forward rates as indicators of inflation expectations, see Sharpe (1997).
Rates on 3-Month Eurodollar Futures trace through time the yield on three specific contracts.
Rates on Selected Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts.
Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis.