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Ninth Annual Missouri Economics Conference - Conference Program

The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis along with the Department of Economics at the University of Missouri—Columbia hosted the ninth Missouri Economics Conference, at the University of Missouri—Columbia Reynolds Alumni Center, March 27-28, 2009.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Economics of Human Capital

"The Kids Keep Getting Smarter: Can Education Explain the Rapid, Sustained Productivity Growth in the Czech Transition?"
David Wiczer, University of Illinois

"Human Capital, Returning Migration and Rural Entrepreneurship in China"
Jialu Liu, Indiana University—Bloomington

"Giving and the Nature of Communities: An Analysis of How Community Characteristics Affect an Individual's Likelihood of Engaging in Volunteer Work"
Florence Neymotin, Kansas State University

Applied Macroeconomics

"Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation"
James Murray, Viterbo University

"Revisions to Short Rate Expectations: Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic News"
Michael D. Bauer, University of California—San Diego
Paper | Presentation Slides

"The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Shocks Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks"
Daniel L. Thornton, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

"When Do World Orderings and Long-Run Recursive Identifying Restrictions Yield Identical Results?"
John Keating, University of Kansas

International Public Goods

"War and Peace: A Model of Conflict with Endogenous Destruction"
Yang-Ming Chang, Kansas State University

"Foreign Aid as Counterterrorism Policy"
Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

"Debt Targeting in a Small Open Economy"
Huixin Bi, Indiana University—Bloomington

Economic Growth

"Pollution, Health and Economic Growth"
Min Wang, Iowa State University

"Knowledge Diffusion and the Japanese Growth Miracle"
Atsushi Oshima, University of Iowa

"News Shocks and Learning-by-doing"
Hammad Qureshi, Ohio State University

"Human Capital, Technology Adoption and Development"
A. Kerem Cosar, The Pennsylvania State University

Applied Microeconomics

"Location and Venture Funding in the U.S. Biotech Industry"
Christos Kolympiris, University of Missouri—Columbia

"Analyzing the Effects of a Merger between Airline Codeshare Partners"
David Brown, Kansas State University

"Profit Persistence Revisited: The Case of the UK"
Mark E. Wohar, University of Nebraska—Omaha

"The Impact of Storms on Firm Survival: a Bayesian Spatial Econometric Model for Firm Survival"
Mihaela Craioveanu, University of Central Missouri

Industrial Organization

"Access Price and Vertical Control Policies for a Vertically Integrated Upstream Monopolist When Sabotage is Costly"
George Chikhladze, University of Missouri—Columbia

"'Endogenous' Status Concerns: The Impact of Workers' Characteristics on Status, Profits and Diversity in the Firm"
Abhijit Ramalingam, Indiana University—Bloomington

"Price Matching in a Sequential Search Duopoly"
Aleksandr Yankelevich, Washington University in St. Louis

Applied Economic Forecasting

"Improving Recession Probability Forecasts in the U.S. Economy"
Munechika Katayama, Louisiana State University

"Forecasting Credit Rating Movements"
Nilay Chandra, University of Missouri—Columbia

"How Predictable are Components of the Aggregate Market Portfolio?"
David E. Rapach, St. Louis University

"The Propagation of Regional Recessions"
Michael T. Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

International Economics

"Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Globally?"
Mingming Zheng, University of Kansas

"Imports 'R' Us: Retail Chains as Platforms for Developing-Country Imports"
Emek Basker, University of Missouri—Columbia

"Equilibrium Sovereign Default with Endogenous Exchange Rate Depreciation"
Sergey V. Popov, University of Illinois

"Accounting for City Real Exchange Rate Changes in India"
A.K.M. Mahbub Morshed, Southern Illinois University—Carbondale

Economic Theory I

"Is Less More: Menu Costs and the Estimated Thresholds in the Response of Output to Monetary Policy"
Luiggi Donayre, Washington University in St. Louis

"The Economics of Counterfeiting"
Elena Quercioli, Tulane University

"Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles"
Hajime Tomura, Bank of Canada

Financial Markets

"Risk, Instability and Propensities: A Hybrid Model of Financial Disruption"
David L. Sallach, University of Chicago

"Relationship Lending and the Transmission of Monetary Policy"
Kinda Hachem, University of Toronto

"Does the Structure of Banking Matter for Economic Growth? Evidence from the Rise of U.S. Manufacturing"
David C. Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Regional Economics

"Crime Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina"
Ioana Pacurar, University of Memphis

"The Effect of Unaffordable Housing on Employment Growth and Business Formation: Evidence from California Cities"
Ritashree Chakrabarti, Clark University

"Relative Gender Differentials and Islam in Non-Arabic Nations: A Regional Analysis"
Sharmistha Self, Missouri State University

Microeconomic Theory

"When to go Local, When to go Edible: Trade, Technology and Food Security"
Thomas R. Sadler and William Koch, Western Illinois University

"Multidimensional Uncertainty and The Effects of Governance Structure Choice"
Jong Chul Won, University of Missouri—Columbia

"Kin-targeted Altruism with Noise"
Carmen Astorne-Figari, Washington University in St. Louis

"Who Invests in Research and Development?: A Model of Endogenous Sectoral Choice under Costly External Finance"
Rasim Burak Uras, Washington University in St. Louis


"Change Points in Arbitrage-Free Affine Term-Structure Models: Pricing Estimation and Forecasting"
Kyu Ho Kang, Washington University in St. Louis

"A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models"
Abhishek Gupta, Johns Hopkins University

"Nested Forecast Model Comparisons: A New Approach to Testing Equal Accuracy"
Michael W. McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

"Generalized Spectral Estimation of Asset Pricing Models Using Conditional Moment Restrictions"
Jinho Choi, Indiana University—Bloomington

Macroeconomic Theory

"On-the-Job Search, Sticky Prices, and Persistence"
Willem Van Zandweghe, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

"Unemployment Insurance in a Sticky-Price Model with Worker Moral Hazard"
Gregory E. Givens, Middle Tennessee State University

"Aggregate Labor Market Responses to Monetary and Technology Shocks"
Hamilton B. Fout, Kansas State University

"Supply Shocks, Demand Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations"
Riccardo DiCecio, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Financial Economics

"Portfolio Mispricing and the Cross Section of Asset Returns"
Scott Gilbert, Southern Illinois University

"Strong Bubbles and Common Expected Bubbles in a Finite Horizon Model"
Jie Zheng, Washington University in St. Louis

"Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Implications for Urban Development in Nigeria"
T .P. Ogun, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria

"Financial Market Integration of South Asian Countries: Panel Data Analysis"
Hasan Mohsin, Southern Illinois University—Carbondale

Applied Economics

"Real-Time Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals"
Tanya Molodtsova, Emory University

"Oil Prices and Real-Time Output Growth"
Amelie B. Carlton, University of Houston

"Interwar Hoarding and Liquidity Traps and the 2008 Solvency Trap"
William H. Carlson, Duquesne University

"Barger's Revised Quarterly NIPA Data: 1921-41"
Conway Lackman, Duquesne University

Inflation and Economic Policy

"Inflation Targeting or Fear of Floating in Disguise: A DSGE Approach"
Javier Reyes, University of Arkansas

"Is Inflation an International Phenomenon"
Christopher J. Neely, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

"International Monetary Transmission to Emerging Economies, a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach; The Cases of Mexico and Brazil"
Martha Cruz-Zuniga, The Catholic University of America

"Inflation and Output Growth Differentials in the Euro Area: The Role of Monetary Policy"
Tatevik Sekhposyan, University of North Carolina


"Louisiana Community Banks: An Analysis of Recent Performance"
Norbert Michel, Nicholls State University

"Big Banks versus Small Banks: Good or Bad for Industries?"
Indrit Hoxha, University of Houston

"Importance of Quality of Information in Pricing, Market Structure and Efficiency: The Case of Banking"
Marcela Giraldo, University of Florida

Plenary Session I

Panel Discussion "The Response to the Financial Crisis"
Moderator: Ron Harstad, University of Missouri—Columbia
Panel: Joseph H. Haslag, University of Missouri—Columbia, Daniel L. Thornton, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and David C. Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Plenary Session II

"Expectations and Fiscal Stimulus"
Eric M. Leeper, Indiana University—Bloomington

Applied Macroeconomics

"Explaining the Durations between Changes in Investment Risk Ratings: Evidence from a Multi-Country Study"
Manitra A. Rakotoarisoa, Economic and Social Development Department, UNFAO, Rome, Italy

"Investment Horizon and Portfolio Allocation: A Spatial Dominance Approach"
Raul Ibarra-Ramirez, Texas A&M University

"Optimal Monetary Policy in the Presence of Fiscal Foresight"
Nora Traum, Indiana University—Bloomington

"Improved Measures of Financial Risk for Hedge Funds"
Moohwan Kim, University of Missouri—Columbia

Monetary Economics

"Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles"
J. Isaac Miller, University of Missouri—Columbia

"Identifying Fiscal Policy Behavior: An Investigation of OLS Regression on the Fiscal Policy Rule"
Bing Li, Indiana University—Bloomington

"How Does a Twisted Beliefs Shock Affect the Macroeconomy?"
Jacek Suda, Washington University in St. Louis

Applied Microeconomics I

"The Effect of the Order of Implementation of Optimal Policies on Welfare Gains: The Case of Water Management"
Basharat A. Pitafi, Southern Illinois University—Carbondale

"Understanding the Link Between Ethanol Production and Food Prices"
Nathalia Monteiro, Southern Illinois University—Carbondale

"Gender Differences in Income Inequality across Immigrant Groups"
Mehmet E. Yaya, University of Alabama

"Keeping Up with the Joneses in McMansions: Changes in Wealth Inequality between College and High-School Graduates"
Takashi Yamashita, Reed College

The Macro-Finance Link

"What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability"
Kwok Ping Tsang, Virginia Tech

"Predicting Output and Inflation Using the Entire Yield Curve"
Azamat Abdymomunov, Washington University in St. Louis


"What Can Fiscal Policy Do to Curb the Effect of Oil Shocks?"
Leandro Andrian, Iowa State University

"The (Un)Reliability of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data"
Onur Ince, University of Houston

"Is the Great Moderation A Return to The Nineteenth Century Trade Cycle"
Malcolm C. Harris, Friends University

Applied Microeconomics II

"Participation in Special Language Programs (Bilingual and ESL) and Academic Performance of LEP and non-LEP Hispanic Students"
Noelia R. Paez, Texas A&M University

"New Estimates of Public Employment and Training Program Net Impacts: A Non-experimental Evaluation of the Workforce Investment Act Program"
Peter R. Mueser, University of Missouri—Columbia

Schedule of events and participants (PDF)

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