#1999-023A "The Contribution of On-Site Examination Ratings to an Empirical Model of Bank Failures"
by David C. Wheelock, and Paul Wilson
November 1999

This paper investigates how well regulator examinations predict bank failures, and how best to incorporate examination information into an econometric model of time-to-failure. We estimate proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates and find that examiner ratings help explain the failure hazard. More...

PUBLISHED: Review of Accounting and Finance, November 2005, 4(4), pp. 110-34

#1999-022B "The Relationship Between the Federal Funds Rate and the Fed's Federal Funds Rate Target: Is It Open Market or Open Mouth Operations"
by Daniel L. Thornton

Revised December 2000

It is widely believed that the Fed controls the funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the federal funds rate. Recently, however, several economists have suggested that open market operations may not be necessary for controlling the funds rate. More...

PUBLISHED: Published under "The Fed and Short-Term Interest Rates: Is It Open Market Operations, Open Month or Interest Rate Smoothing"

#1999-021A "What Do New Keynesian Phillips Curves Imply for Price Level Targeting?"
by Robert Dittmar, and William T. Gavin
August 1999

This paper extends the analysis of price level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price level rules. More...

PUBLISHED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2000, 82(2), pp. 21-30

#1999-020A "Committing and Reneging: A Dynamic Model of Policy Regimes"
by Joseph G. Haubrich, and Joseph Ritter
September 1999

Actual policy decisions are made in real time and are not irrevocable. These observations are mundane, but most policy modeling has neglected them. More...

#1999-019B "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity"
by Michael J. Dueker, and Katrin Wesche

Revised October 2001

This article presents a new type of business cycle index that allows for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country, cross-country comparisons of business cycle correlation and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle. The paper examines probit-type specifications of binary recession/expansion variables in a Gibbs-sampling framework, wherein it is possible to incorporate time-series features to the model, such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and regime switching. More...

PUBLISHED: Economic Inquiry, January 2003, 41(1), pp. 116-31

#1999-018A "Corporate Governance And Corporate Performance"
by William R. Emmons, and Frank A. Schmid


National corporate-governance traditions are distinctive, deeply rooted, and difficult to change. Recent research points to a country's legal traditions and its stage of economic development as important determinants of corporate-governance institutions. More...

FORTHCOMING: Corporate Governance and Globalization, edited by Gavin Boyd and Stephen Cohen, Edward Elgar, 2000

#1999-017A "Endogenous Export Subsidies and Welfare Under Domestic Cost Heterogeneity"
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Eun-Soo Park, and Howard J. Wall


We present a model of Cournot rivalry where domestic and foreign firms compete in a third country market, and where the domestic export subsidy is determined by lobbying. Greater domestic cost heterogeneity (a mean-preserving spread of the marginal costs of the domestic firms) means that the subsidy level, aggregate domestic output, and domestic market share will all be higher. More...

PUBLISHED: Economics and Politics, 2004, 16:3, pp. 347-366

#1999-016B "Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market"
by Christopher J. Neely, and Paul A. Weller

Revised January 2001

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies, a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model. When realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account, we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 22(2), pp. 223-237

#1999-015D "Risk-Adjusted, Ex Ante, Optimal, Technical Trading Rules in Equity Markets"
by Christopher J. Neely

Revised August 2001

This paper uses genetic programming to construct risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal, trading rules for the S&P 500 Index and then characterizes the predictive content of these rules. These results extend previous results by using risk-adjustment selection criteria to generate ex ante rules with improved performance. More...

PUBLISHED: International Review of Economics and Finance, Spring 2003, 12(1), pp. 69-87

#1999-014A "Effects of Federal Reserve Services on the Efficiency of the System for Collecting Checks in the United States: 1915-30."
by R. Alton Gilbert


This paper investigates whether the services of the Federal Reserve System improved the efficiency of the system in the United States for collecting checks relative to the efficiency of the system used by banks just prior to the formation of the Federal Reserve. More...

PUBLISHED: Published under "The Advent of the Federal Reserve and the Efficiency of the System for Collecting Checks in the U.S.: 1915-30"