#1997-023A "Trade, Investment, and International Borrowing in Two-Country Business Cycle Models."
by Michael R. Pakko
December 1997

Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. More...

PUBLISHED: Topics in Macroeconomics, 2003, 3(1), Article 14

#1997-022B "The Transition From a Pay-As-You-Go to a Fully-funded Social Security System: Is There a Role for Social Insurance"
by Patricia S. Pollard, and Rowena A. Pecchenino

Revised May 1998

This paper develops a model to examine the effects of introducing a fully-funded government sponsored pension plan into an overlapping generations model with an extant pay-as-you go social security system. We examine whether individual and social welfare can be improved by phasing out the current pay-as-you-go system and replacing it with a fully-funded system in which pension benefits are at least partially annuitized. More...

#1997-021A "The Role of the Euro as an International Currency"
by Patricia S. Pollard
November 1997

The creation of the euro will link an economy that is nearly as large and as open as the United States. Does this imply that the euro will rival the role of the dollar as an international currency? More...

PUBLISHED: Columbia Journal of International Law, Spring 1998

#1997-020A "Does the United States Invest Too Little?"
by Milka S. Kirova, and Robert E. Lipsey
November 1997

The standard measures of nominal capital formation show the United States investing a proportion of GDP much lower than those of other developed countries throughout the last 25 years and falling further behind over time. In contrast, measures we have calculated in real terms across countries and over time indicate that U.S. investment ratios have been rising over time and have been coming closer and closer to those of the other countries. More...

#1997-019A "Construction of an Estimated Domestic Monetary Base Using New Estimates of Foreign Holdings of US Currency"
by Richard G. Anderson, and Robert H. Rasche


This paper has been replaced with working paper 2000-002, "The Domestic Adjusted Monetary Base".

This paper provides a consistent, monthly measure of the amount of the U.S. adjusted monetary base that is domestically held, and of the amount held abroad. Most macroeconomic models that address the role of outside money as a determinant of the economy's aggregate price level are closed economy models, suggesting a need to accurately measure the domestic monetary base. More...

#1997-018B "Location Determinants of New Foreign-Owned Manufacturing Plants"
by Cletus C. Coughlin, and Eran Segev


Manufacturing employment in the United States trended downward between 1979 and 1993. Geographically, the Northeast and Mideast regions incurred the brunt of this decline and, except in the Southwest region, urban counties tended to fare worse than rural counties. Meanwhile, foreign-owned manufacturing associated with new plants has been playing a larger role in the U.S. economy, especially in the Southeast region. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of Regional Science, May 2000, 40(2), pp. 323-51

#1997-017A "A State Space Forecasting Model with Fiscal and Monetary Control"
by Donald S. Allen, and Meenakshi Pasupathy


In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an atheoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. More...

#1997-016A "Population Growth and Asset Prices"
by Peter S. Yoo
August 1997

This paper explores the theoretical relationship between the population growth rate and asset prices implied by an overlapping-generations model. The model shows that changes in a population's age distribution affect asset prices but such changes generate low frequency movements in asset prices. More...

#1997-015C "Technical Trading Rules in the European Monetary System"
by Christopher J. Neely, and Paul A. Weller

Revised November 1998

Using genetic programming, we find trading rules that generate significant excess returns for three of four EMS exchange rates over the out-of-sample period 1986- 1996. Permitting the rules to use information about the interest rate differential proved to be important. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of International Money and Finance, June 1999, 18(3), pp. 429-58

#1997-014A "Modeling US Households' Demand for Liquid Wealth in an Era of Financial Change"
by Sean Collins, and Richard G. Anderson
May 1997

Money demand models overpredicted M2 growth in the United States from 1990 to 1993. We examine this overprediction using a model of household demand for liquid wealth. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 1998