#2001-005C "Evaluating FOMC Forecasts"
by William T. Gavin, and Rachel J. Mandal

Revised August 2002

Monetary policy outcomes have improved since the early 1980s. One factor contributing to the improvement is that Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. More...

PUBLISHED: International Journal of Forecasting, October 1, 2003, 19(4), pp. 655-667

#2000-026A "Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?"
by William T. Gavin, and Rachel J. Mandal
September 2000

FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. More...

PUBLISHED: Business Economics, January 2001, 36(1), pp. 13-20