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Working Paper 2009-037A

"The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Actions Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks"
by Daniel L. Thornton

It is common practice to estimate the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks, such as the federal funds futures rate. I show that because interest rates and market-based measures of monetary policy shocks respond simultaneously to all news and not simply news about monetary policy actions, market-based measures of monetary policy shocks yield biased estimates of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions. I propose a methodology that corrects for this “joint-response bias.” The results indicate that the response of Treasury yields to monetary policy actions is considerably weaker than previously estimated. In particular, there is no statistically significant response of longer-term Treasury yields before February 2000 and no statistically significant response of any Treasury rate after.

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Category > Applied Econometrics
Category > Monetary Policy/Macroeconomics
Author > Daniel L. Thornton
Research Papers and Publications: JEL Code > E40
Research Papers and Publications: JEL Code > E52