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Working Paper 1998-015B

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"Trend-Reverting Fluctuations in the Life-Cycle Model"
by Costas Azariadis, James B. Bullard, and Lee Ohanian

Aggregate time series provide evidence of short term dynamic adjustment that appears to be governed by complex or negative real eigenvalues. This finding is at odds with the predictions of reasonably parameterized, convex one-sector growth models with complete markets. We study life cycle economies in which aggregate saving depends non-trivially on the distribution of wealth among cohorts. If consumption goods are weak gross substitutes near the steady state price vector, we prove that the unique equilibrium of a life cycle exchange economy converges to the unique non-monetary steady state via damped oscillations. We also discuss examples and extensions.

(Previously circulated under the title,"Complex Eigenvalues and Trend-Reverting Fluctuations.")

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Category > Monetary Policy/Macroeconomics
Author > James B. Bullard