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Working Paper 1997-023A

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"Trade, Investment, and International Borrowing in Two-Country Business Cycle Models."
by Michael R. Pakko

Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies a new anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: The prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to a (counterfactual) implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. Although the introduction of investment adjustment costs can reverse this anomaly, it has the side-effect of inducing the wrong cyclical behavior for net exports. Possible resolutions to this puzzle are considered, including asset market restrictions and the role of the substitution elasticities.

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Category > International
Author > Michael R. Pakko