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Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
Birinci, Serdar; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2025-02-28)
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-025

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock
Andolfatto, David; Martin, Fernando M. (2025-02-14)
We use an analytically tractable DSGE model to study the surge in the cost of living in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. A calibrated version of the model is used to assess the conduct of US monetary and fiscal policy over the 2020-2024 period. The model is also used to estimate the economic and welfare consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policies. The calibrated model suggests that while the extraordinary fiscal transfers made in 2020-21 generally improved economic welfare, they were significantly larger than needed. These welfare gains came primarily in the form of insurance, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-004

Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David (2025-02-11)
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from a series of nationally representative U.S. surveys of generative AI use at work and at home. As of late 2024, nearly 40% of the U.S. population age 18-64 uses generative AI. 23% of employed respondents had used generative AI for work at least once in the previous week, and 9% used it every work day. Relative to each technology’s first mass-market product launch, work adoption of generative AI has been ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-027

Working Paper
Lifetime Work Hours and the Evolution of the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-02-03)
The gender wage gap expanded between 1940 and 1975 but narrowed sharply between 1980 and 1995. We use a human capital accumulation model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life-cycle profiles of market time and occupation sorting in explaining the gender wage gap dynamics over the long run. Men’s aggregate hours profiles changed little across cohorts, but women’s profiles converged to those of men, and especially so in higher-paying occupations. We calibrate the model to wage data by age, year, gender and occupation, and find that changing time ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

Working Paper
Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-02-03)
We present a novel theory of intergenerational persistence in college attainment that does not rely on credit constraints, parental transfers and investments, or persistence in innate ability. The gist of our theory is heterogeneity in time preferences, which are endogenous since parents can teach patience to their children before the children make their college decisions. We show, analytically, that the most patient parents are simultaneously more likely to have a college degree and to educate their children to be patient. Persistence follows. We also show that persistence occurs if and only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-003

Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David (2025-01-30)
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from a series of nationally representative U.S. surveys of generative AI use at work and at home. As of late 2024, nearly 40 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 uses generative AI. 23 percent of employed respondents had used generative AI for work at least once in the previous week, and 9 percent used it every work day. Relative to each technology’s first mass-market product launch, work adoption of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-027

Working Paper
The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan
Neely, Christopher J. (2025-01-28)
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-034

Working Paper
Time Averaging Meets Labor Supplies of Heckman, Lochner, and Taber
Graves, Sebastian; Gregory, Victoria; Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J. (2025-01-08)
We add endogenous career lengths to the Heckman, Lochner, and Taber (1998a) (HLT) model with its credit markets and within-period labor supply indivisibilities, all of which are essential features of Ljungqvist and Sargent (2006) “time-averaging.” A benchmark social security system puts all workers at corner solutions of their retirement decisions. That lets our model reproduce most outcomes in HLT’s model with its inelastic labor supply and mandatory retirement date for all types of workers. Eight types of workers are indexed by pairs of innate abilities and choices of education ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-012

Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-01)
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-026

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