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Working Paper 1994-030A

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"U.S. Official Forecasts of Group of Seven Economic Performance, 1976-90"
by Michael Ulan, William G. Dewald, and James B. Bullard

In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Treasury Department forecasts of real growth and inflation from 1976 to 1990 for the Group of Seven (G-7) economies. The accuracy of these forecasts is measured against the standard of actual real world growth and inflation as subsequently published in the Treasury's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The primary comparison is to forecasts made by the OECD for each of the G-7 nations, but for the United States and Canada, we compare the forecasts to those made by the Blue Chip consensus and the Federal Reserve 'Greenbook'.

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Category > Monetary Policy/Macroeconomics
Author > James B. Bullard