The surge in U.S. wage inequality over the past several decades is now commonly attributed to an increase in the returns paid to skill. Although theories differ with respect to why, specifically, this increase has come about, many agree that it is strongly tied to the increase in the relative supply of skilled (i.e. highly educated) workers in the U.S. labor market.
State-wide reports on police traffic stops and searches summarize very large populations, making them potentially powerful tools for identifying racial bias, particularly when statistics on search outcomes are included. But when the reported statistics conflate searches involving different levels of police discretion, standard tests for racial bias are not applicable.
We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.
We use a spatial model to investigate a state's choice of branch banking and interstate banking regimes as a function of the regime choices made by other states and other variables suggested in the literature. We extend the basic spatial econometric model by allowing spatial dependence to vary by geographic region.
We implement a spatial probit model to differentiate states with a lottery from those without a lottery. Our analysis extends the basic spatial probit model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across geographic regions.
We reexamine the relationship between school quality and house prices and find it to be nonlinear. Unlike most studies in the literature, we find that the price premium parents must pay to buy a house associated with a better school increases as school quality increases.
This article will explore the extent, causes, and proposed solutions of the current fiscal crisis from a historical perspective of state finance. Although the current fiscal crisis is severe, it becomes more difficult to assess unless one has a more complete understanding of the historical changes that have occurred in state revenue streams.
Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments.
The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indexes to characterize state business cycles in this way.
This paper explores the impact of political influence on the allocation of U.S. direct agriculture disaster payments. The results reveal that disaster payments are not based solely on need, but are higher in those states represented by public officials key to the allocation of relief.
This paper tests the ability of consumer sentiment to predict retail spending at the state level. The results here suggest that, although there is a significant relationship between sentiment measures and retail sales growth in several states, consumer sentiment exhibits only modest predictive power for future changes of retail spending.
This paper presents evidence that banking deregulation led to decreases in entrepreneurship in some U.S. regions, and to increases in others. This is contrary to recent research that found an unambiguous positive relationship.
This paper uses a spatial panel approach to examine the effect of the government-policy environment on the level of entrepreneurship. Specifically, we investigate whether marginal income tax rates and bankruptcy exemptions influence rates of entrepreneurship.
We examine a two-jurisdiction tax competition environment where local governments can only imperfectly monitor where agents pay taxes and risk-averse individuals my choose to cross borders to pay lower taxes in a neighboring location.
We explore whether presidential and congressional influences affect the rate of disaster declaration and the allocation of FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) disaster expenditures across states. We find that states politically important to the president have a higher rate of disaster declaration by the president, and that FEMA disaster expenditures are higher in states having congressional representation on FEMA oversight committees.
Previous studies find state lottery sales are significantly influenced by socioeconomic characteristics of the population. We extend this literature by examining how the overall expected value, the top prize, and the total combinations influence sales after controlling for these other socioeconomic factors.
Mergers of community banks across economic market areas potentially reduce both idiosyncratic and local market risk. A merger may reduce idiosyncratic risk because the larger post-merger bank has a larger customer base. Negative credit and liquidity shocks from individual customers would have smaller effects on the portfolio of the merged entity than on the individual community banks involved in the merger.
Recent work has suggested the possibility that the Beveridge curve can shift over the business cycle. This is in contrast with a large body of literature claiming that Beveridge curves have shifted due to structural changes alone.
Despite economists' nearly universal support for free trade policies, the general public has serious reservations about free trade. To understand this opposition, one must understand the preferences of individuals as they relate to the policy choices of policymakers. Ideally, one would like to know how these preferences differ across regions because legislators who represent their constituents in the U.S. Congress cast the actual votes on trade policies.
The trade liberalization associated with NAFTA has affected the pattern of state exports by altering the origin as well as the destination of merchandise exports. We find that NAFTA has increased US merchandise exports to Mexico and Canada by just over 15 percent, and has increased total US merchandise exports by nearly 8 percent.
There is a well-established literature finding that the Canada-U.S. border has a large dampening effect on trade, is asymmetric, and differs across provinces. In this paper, I demonstrate that the standard gravity model used to obtain these results provides biased estimates of the volume of trade
Debates over the desirability a preferential trading area (PTA) begin with the supposition that it will have two effects on the volume of trade: it will increase trade between PTA members, and decrease trade between members and non-members. This paper demonstrates, however, that at the regional level the effects of NAFTA have been much more complicated than what is normally supposed should happen.
There is a great deal of variation in the levels of entrepreneurship, or rates of self-employment, across the regions of Britain. Over the period 1983-95, average self-employment in the North, Scotland, and the West Midlands was respectively 25%, 15%, and 15% lower than the national average, whereas in the South West, East Anglia, and Wales it was respectively 28%, 23%, and 21% higher.
We discuss specification of regression models for using migration data to infer the living standards of different regions, and for observing how much of the standard of living is determined by economic opportunities versus non-pecuniary amenities.
This paper reexamines and extends the literature on the use of migration rates to estimate compensating differentials as measures of regional quality of life. I estimate an interregional migration regression for the UK and use the results to measure regional quality of life and standard of living.
After sealing itself for decades from the global economy, in the late I 970s China began to remove some of the barriers to the inflow of foreign direct investment. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal regionsof China have received the bulk of EDT inflows to the country. In this paper, we use provincelevel data to explain the pattern of EDT location across China.