http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development en-us Copyright 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis webmaster@research.stlouisfed.org Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss http://research.stlouisfed.org/rss/images/title.gif http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/ 90 31 http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/2007/02/Rapach.pdf The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model framework. A number of variables, including the state housing price-to-income ratio, state unemployment rate, and national inflation rate, appear to provide information that is useful for forecasting real housing price growth in many Eighth District states. Given that it is typically difficult to determine a priori the particular variable or small set of variables that are the most relevant for forecasting real housing price growth for a given state and time period, the authors also consider various methods for combining the individual ARDL model forecasts. They find that combination forecasts are quite helpful in generating accurate forecasts of real housing price growth in the individual Eighth District states. Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/2007/02/Bezold.pdf Metropolitan area business cycles vary considerably in both magnitude and duration. Some metro areas recover rapidly from downtowns, some take longer, and some never recover. Because recent recessions have involved employment changes at the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) supersector level that were both cyclical and structural, part of a metro area’s recovery from a recession may include the process of workers adapting to new jobs in other industries. If worker adaptation is part of the recovery process, then metro areas with higher educational levels might be able to recover more quickly from recessions. This hypothesis is tested with multiple regression models of the 1990 and 2001 recessions. There is a significant and negative link between college attainment and the time it took for metropolitan areas to recover from the 2001 recession, but not from the 1990 recession. Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/2007/02/Rothstein.pdf In 2005, Missouri had 53 legally authorized tax credit programs. In this paper, the authors assemble basic information on all of these programs and further analyze the six largest (by tax credits issued) that include freely transferable credits. Their analysis focuses on the institutional features of these programs, the kinds of market failures or disparities they may address, and whether the design of each program is consistent with its economic rationale. The authors also consider whether the evaluation of each program by the state is consistent with its economic rationale. They conclude with a brief discussion of the transactions prices for the credits on which they have data and whether making the tax credits refundable as well as transferable could reduce the transactions costs associated with these programs. Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/2007/02/Wagner.pdf Economic downturns often force state policymakers to enact sizable tax increases or spending cuts to close budget shortfalls. In this paper the authors make use of a Markov-switching regression model to empirically describe the expansions and contractions in the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. They use the estimated parameters from the switching regressions to form probability distributions of the revenue shortfalls states are likely to encounter in future slowdowns. This allows them to estimate the probability that each state’s projected fiscal-year-end balances will be sufficient to offset the fiscal stress from a recession. Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/red/2007/02/Shideler.pdf Significant resources are being invested by government and the private sector in broadband infrastructure to increase broadband deployment and use. With a unique dataset of broadband availability (sorted by county), the authors assess whether broadband infrastructure has affected the industrial competitiveness of Kentucky counties. Their results suggest that broadband availability increases employment growth in some industries but not others. Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:59:40 CDT