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JULY/AUGUST 2009 Vol. 91, No. 4

Projecting Potential Growth: Issues and Measurements

Proceedings of the Thirty-Third Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Complete Issue (PDF 2.4M)

Contributing Authors pp. iii (PDF 34k)

President's Welcome pp. 179-180 (PDF 52k)
by James Bullard

Editor's Introduction pp. 181-186 (PDF 65k)
by Richard G. Anderson

What Do We Know (And Not Know) About Potential Output? pp. 187-214 (PDF 255k)
by Susanto Basu and John G. Fernald

Commentary pp. 215-220 (PDF 95k)
by Rodolfo E. Manuelli
Commentary on What Do We Know (And Not Know) About Potential Output?

Issues on Potential Growth Measurement and Comparison: How Structural Is the Production Function Approach? pp. 221-240 (PDF 295k)
by Christophe Cahn and Arthur Saint-Guilhem

Commentary pp. 241-246 (PDF 82k)
by Jon Faust
Commentary on Issues on Potential Growth Measurement and Comparison: How Structural Is the Production Function Approach?

Parsing Shocks: Real-Time Revisions to Gap and Growth Projections for Canada pp. 247-266 (PDF 187k)
by Russell Barnett, Sharon Kozicki, and Christopher Petrinec

Commentary pp. 267-270 (PDF 73k)
by Gregor W. Smith
Commentary on Parsing Shocks: Real-Time Revisions to Gap and Growth Projections for Canada

The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time pp. 271-290 (PDF 259k)
by Robert W. Arnold

Commentary pp. 291-296 (PDF 92k)
by Robert J. Tetlow
Commentary on The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time

Trends in the Aggregate Labor Force pp. 297-310 (PDF 214k)
by Kenneth J. Matheny

Commentary pp. 311-316 (PDF 83k)
by Ellis W. Tallman
Commentary on Trends in the Aggregate Labor Force

Potential Output in a Rapidly Developing Economy: The Case of China and a Comparison with the United States and the European Union pp. 317-342 (PDF 276k)
by Jinghai Zheng, Angang Hu, and Arne Bigsten

Commentary pp. 343-348 (PDF 87k)
by Xiaodong Zhu
Commentary on Potential Output in a Rapidly Developing Economy: The Case of China and a Comparison with the United States and the European Union

Estimating U.S. Output Growth with Vintage Data in a State-Space Framework pp. 349-370 (PDF 244k)
by Richard G. Anderson and Charles S. Gascon

Commentary pp. 371-382 (PDF 164k)
by Dean Croushore
Commentary on Estimating U.S. Output Growth with Vintage Data in a State-Space Framework

Panel Discussion pp. 383-395 (PDF 165k)
by Carlos Hamilton Araujo, Seppo Honkapohja, and James Bullard

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