"Using Federal Funds Futures Rates to Predict Federal Reserve Actions," by John C. Robertson and Daniel L. Thornton in the November/December 1997 "REVIEW", pages 45-53. The federal funds futures data are from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). These data are proprietary and can not be provided with this dataset. If you are interested in this data, contact the CBOT, Market Data Services Department at 312-341-7010. Data were manipulated and equations estimated in the software package Econometric Views (EViews) interactively and in a Lotus 123 spreadsheet, which can not be provided because of the proprietary CBOT data. Given the proprietary nature of the CBOT data, the only data that can be provided for this article are the following series: DATE YYYYMM format FF Effective Federal Funds Rate, Average of Daily Figures, Percent Source: Board of Governors, H.15 Statistical Release FF_XSWED Effective Federal Funds Rate excluding Settlement Wednesdays, Average of Daily Figures, Percent FFTAR Federal Funds Rate Target, Average of Daily Figures, Percent Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York TAR_EOM Federal Funds Rate Target, End of Month, Percent Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York DATE FF FF_XSWED FFTAR TAR_EOM 198810 8.30 8.281 8.1734 8.25 198811 8.35 8.365 8.2979 8.375 198812 8.76 8.747 8.5524 8.75 198901 9.12 9.115 8.9677 9.00 198902 9.36 9.343 9.2656 9.75 198903 9.85 9.815 9.7500 9.75 198904 9.84 9.824 9.7500 9.75 198905 9.81 9.769 9.8065 9.8125 198906 9.53 9.537 9.6042 9.5625 198907 9.24 9.238 9.3206 9.0625 198908 8.99 8.968 9.0182 9.00 198909 9.02 9.000 9.0000 9.00 198910 8.84 8.834 8.8871 8.75 198911 8.55 8.509 8.5417 8.50 198912 8.45 8.423 8.4032 8.25 199001 8.23 8.227 8.2500 8.25 199002 8.24 8.231 8.2500 8.25 199003 8.28 8.266 8.2500 8.25 199004 8.26 8.244 8.2500 8.25 199005 8.18 8.233 8.2500 8.25 199006 8.29 8.274 8.2500 8.25 199007 8.15 8.153 8.0968 8.00 199008 8.13 8.104 8.0000 8.00 199009 8.20 8.108 8.0000 8.00 199010 8.11 8.056 7.9758 7.75 199011 7.81 7.782 7.6083 7.50 199012 7.31 7.258 7.1936 7.00 199101 6.91 6.822 6.8145 6.75 199102 6.25 6.246 6.2500 6.25 199103 6.12 6.081 6.0565 6.00 199104 5.91 5.895 5.9917 5.75 199105 5.78 5.770 5.7500 5.75 199106 5.90 5.914 5.7500 5.75 199107 5.82 5.831 5.7500 5.75 199108 5.66 5.620 5.5403 5.50 199109 5.45 5.433 5.3500 5.25 199110 5.21 5.205 5.2419 5.00 199111 4.81 4.834 4.7917 4.75 199112 4.43 4.437 4.3468 4.00 199201 4.03 3.980 4.0000 4.00 199202 4.06 4.034 4.0000 4.00 199203 3.98 3.973 4.0000 4.00 199204 3.73 3.682 3.8167 3.75 199205 3.82 3.806 3.7500 3.75 199206 3.76 3.754 3.7500 3.75 199207 3.25 3.216 3.2661 3.25 199208 3.30 3.293 3.2500 3.25 199209 3.22 3.127 3.0250 3.00 199210 3.10 3.071 3.0000 3.00 199211 3.09 3.039 3.0000 3.00 199212 2.92 2.891 3.0000 3.00 199301 3.02 2.985 3.0000 3.00 199302 3.03 3.004 3.0000 3.00 199303 3.07 3.021 3.0000 3.00 199304 2.96 2.958 3.0000 3.00 199305 3.00 2.989 3.0000 3.00 199306 3.04 3.035 3.0000 3.00 199307 3.06 3.033 3.0000 3.00 199308 3.03 3.029 3.0000 3.00 199309 3.09 3.069 3.0000 3.00 199310 2.99 3.003 3.0000 3.00 199311 3.02 3.021 3.0000 3.00 199312 2.96 2.954 3.0000 3.00 199401 3.05 3.031 3.0000 3.00 199402 3.25 3.239 3.2232 3.25 199403 3.34 3.349 3.3307 3.50 199404 3.56 3.574 3.6083 3.75 199405 4.01 4.023 3.9919 4.25 199406 4.25 4.257 4.2500 4.25 199407 4.26 4.212 4.2500 4.25 199408 4.47 4.466 4.5081 4.75 199409 4.73 4.736 4.7500 4.75 199410 4.76 4.763 4.7500 4.75 199411 5.29 5.270 5.1500 5.50 199412 5.45 5.393 5.5000 5.50 199501 5.53 5.507 5.5000 5.50 199502 5.92 5.940 6.0000 6.00 199503 5.98 5.985 6.0000 6.00 199504 6.05 6.036 6.0000 6.00 199505 6.01 6.003 6.0000 6.00 199506 6.00 6.004 6.0000 6.00 199507 5.85 5.799 5.7903 5.75 199508 5.74 5.708 5.7500 5.75 199509 5.80 5.776 5.7500 5.75 199510 5.76 5.736 5.7500 5.75 199511 5.80 5.780 5.7500 5.75 199512 5.60 5.549 5.6452 5.50 199601 5.56 5.499 5.4919 5.25 199602 5.22 5.200 5.2500 5.25 199603 5.31 5.309 5.2500 5.25 199604 5.22 5.203 5.2500 5.25 199605 5.24 5.227 5.2500 5.25 199606 5.27 5.236 5.2500 5.25 199607 5.40 5.354 5.2500 5.25 199608 5.22 5.222 5.2500 5.25 199609 5.30 5.291 5.2500 5.25 199610 5.24 5.220 5.2500 5.25 199611 5.31 5.298 5.2500 5.25 199612 5.29 5.256 5.2500 5.25 199701 5.25 5.227 5.2500 5.25 199702 5.19 5.207 5.2500 5.25 199703 5.39 5.391 5.3060 5.50 199704 5.51 5.499 5.5000 5.50 199705 5.50 5.496 5.5000 5.50 199706 5.56 5.566 5.5000 5.50 199707 5.52 5.507 5.5000 5.50 199708 5.54 5.542 5.5000 5.50