This document contains the data for the March/April 1995 Review article entitled "United States Official Forecasts of Group-of-Seven Economic Performance, 1976-90" by Michael Ulan, Willian G.Dewald and James B. Bullard. The World Economic Outlook(WEO) forecasts evaluated in this article are the last predictions of both economic growth and inflation for the next year made during the previous year. The Blue Chip and DRI forecasts for the United States and Canadian economies selected for comparision to the Administration forecasts were those published during the same months as the Administration forecasts. The DRI forecasts begin with those for 1976 and run through 1990. A complete set of DRI forecasts for all of the G-7 countries is available for each year since 1983. The OECD projections are those published in December for the next year, begining with the outlook for 1976. The Federal Reserve forecasts are those associated with the last Greenbook issued in a given calendar year (usually December). The following is a list of WEO dates from which the forecasts and results were taken: Growth Inflation Year Outcome Forecast Outcome Forecast 1976 Oct. 77 Dec. 75 Sep. 77 Dec. 75 1977 May 79 Oct. 76 May 79 Oct. 76 1978 IMF 81* Nov. 77 IMF 81* Sep. 77*** 1979 Oct. 80 Sep. 78 Jan. 81 Sep. 78 1980 Jan. 82 Sep. 79 Jan. 82**** Sep. 79**** 1981 Dec. 82 Nov. 80 Dec. 82 Nov. 80 1982 Jan. 84 Sep. 81 Jan. 84 Sep. 81 1983 Dec. 84 Dec. 82 Jan. 85 Dec. 82 1984 Jan. 86 Sep. 83 Jan. 86 Sep. 83 1985 Jan. 87 Dec. 84 Jan. 87 Sep. 84 1986 Jan. 88 Sep. 85 Jan. 88 Sep. 85 1987 Jan. 89 Sep. 86 Jan. 89 Sep. 86 1988 Jan. 90 Sep. 87 Jan. 90 Sep. 87 1989 Jul. 90** Sep. 88 Jul. 90 Sep. 88 1990 Oct. 92** Oct. 89 Jul. 90 Sep. 89 * International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1981. ** In 1989, the Administration was forecasting 1990 U.S. GNP. By 1992, however, the focus of our NIPA had shifted to GDP; hence, it is the GDP number for 1990 that is reported in the WEO. The GNP data for 1989 and 1990 (from which the percentage change can be calculated) are found on page 52 of the July 1992 Survey of Current Business. These data represent the last revision of the NIPA prior to October 1992. *** The inflation forecasts numbers for Japan and the United Kingdom are the midpoint of a forecasted range. **** The U.S. forecasts for 1980 is for the GNP deflator. The 1980 outcome for the GNP deflator was taken from the International Financial Statistics Yearbook. The descriptive statistics consists of SSE (sum of squared errors), MSE (mean squared errors), RMSE (root mean squared errors), and Bias. SSE=Sum of squared differences between forecast and outcome MSE=SSE divided by number of years RMSE=Square root of MSE Bias=Sum of forecast minus outcome ADMINISTRATION OUTCOMES Date U.S.GNP CanadaGNP JapanGNP FranceGNP GermGNP ItalyGNP U.K.GNP 1976 6 4.9 6.3 5.2 5.6 5.6 2.1 1977 4.9 2.7 5.2 3 2.6 1.7 1.8 1978 4.8 3.4 5.1 3.7 3.6 2.7 3.6 1979 2.3 2.8 5.9 3.3 4.5 5 1.5 1980 -0.2 0 4.2 1.3 1.8 4 -2.8 1981 1.9 3.4 3.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -2.4 1982 -1.9 -4.4 3.3 2 -1.1 -0.3 1.5 1983 3.7 3.3 3.4 0.7 1.3 -1.2 3.3 1984 6.6 5 5.1 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.8 1985 2.7 4 4.7 1.4 2.5 2.3 3.6 1986 2.9 3.3 2.4 2 2.5 2.7 3 1987 3.4 4 4.5 2.3 1.8 3.1 4.2 1988 4.4 5 5.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 1989 1.8 2.9 4.9 3.7 4 3.2 2.3 1990 -0.3 -0.5 5.2 2.2 5 2.2 1 ADMINISTRATION FORECASTS Date U.S.GNP CanadaGNP JapanGNP FranceGNP GermGNP ItalyGNP U.K.GNP 1976 6.2 4 4.5 3.9 3.5 2.9 2 1977 5.7 5 7 4 4.5 2.3 3.9 1978 4.3 4.2 6 3.5 3 2 3 1979 3.5 3.4 6 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.5 1980 1 2.5 4.8 2.2 3.1 2.3 -1.2 1981 1.4 1.3 4.2 1.6 0.4 0 -0.9 1982 3.4 3.2 5.1 3.1 1.1 1.8 2.3 1983 2.8 2.1 3 0.7 -0.2 1 1.8 1984 5.2 4.7 4.5 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.3 1985 3.7 3.1 4.7 1.7 3.8 3.2 3 1986 4.2 4.4 4.5 2 3.2 2.8 2.8 1987 4 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.7 3 2.2 1988 3.3 3 3 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.5 1989 3.1 2.1 3.5 1.7 1.5 2.7 2.2 1990 2.3 2 5.2 2.7 3 3 1.8 DRI FORECASTS Date U.S.GNP CanadaGNP JapanGNP FranceGNP GermGNP ItalyGNP U.K.GNP 1976 6.2 5.9 NA NA NA NA NA 1977 5.7 4 NA NA NA NA NA 1978 4.9 4.6 NA NA NA NA NA 1979 2 3 NA NA NA NA NA 1980 0.2 2.1 NA NA NA NA NA 1981 1.4 1.9 NA NA NA NA NA 1982 2.4 2.1 NA NA NA NA NA 1983 2.2 1.7 2.4 1 0.9 1.4 2.1 1984 5 5.1 3.4 0.9 2.6 2.5 1.6 1985 2.1 2.2 4.4 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 1986 2.1 2.7 3.2 2 3.4 2.2 2.4 1987 1.5 2.9 3.4 2.6 2.1 3 3.2 1988 2.6 2.9 3.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 1989 2.7 2.3 3.6 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.4 1990 1.6 1.6 4 2.5 3.7 2.8 1.3 OECD FORECASTS Date U.S.GNP CanadaGNP JapanGNP FranceGNP GermGNP ItalyGNP U.K.GNP 1976 5.75 4.25 4.25 3 3.25 1.5 0 1977 4.5 3.5 6 3 3.5 -0.5 1.5 1978 4.25 3.75 5 3.25 3.25 1 3 1979 2 4 4.75 3.5 4 3.5 2.25 1980 -1.25 1.5 4.75 2 2.25 2 -2 1981 0.75 1.25 3.75 1 -0.25 -1 -2 1982 -0.5 1 3.75 2.5 1.25 1 0.25 1983 2 1.25 3.5 0.5 -0.25 0.25 1 1984 5 5 4 0 2 2 2.25 1985 3 2.75 5 2 2.75 2.5 3 1986 2.75 3 3.5 2 3.25 2.5 2.25 1987 3 2.75 2.75 2.25 3 3 2.75 1988 2.5 2.75 3.5 1.5 1.5 2 2.75 1989 3 3 4.5 3 2.5 3.5 3 1990 2.3 2 4.5 3.1 3.2 3.2 1.3 BLUE CHIP FORECASTS GREENBOOK FORECASTS Date U.S. GNP Date U.S. GNP 1976 NA 1976 5.6 1977 4.9 1977 4.7 1978 4.3 1978 4.7 1979 2.8 1979 3.3 1980 0.2 1980 -1.7 1981 1.1 1981 -0.6 1982 2.6 1982 -0.6 1983 2.8 1983 1.4 1984 5.1 1984 5.5 1985 3.1 1985 2.7 1986 3 1986 2.4 1987 2.9 1987 2.6 1988 2.9 1988 2.3 1989 1.9 1989 3.3 1990 1.9 1990 1.7 ADMINISTRATION OUTCOMES Date U.S.CPI CanadaCPI JapanCPI FranceCPI GermCPI ItalyCPI U.K.CPI 1976 5.8 7.5 9.3 9.6 4.5 16.5 16.5 1977 5.8 8 8 9.5 3.9 18.1 15.8 1978 7.5 9 3.8 9.1 2.8 12.1 8.3 1979 11.3 9.1 3.5 10.9 4.1 14.8 13.4 1980 9 10.2 8 13.6 5.5 21.2 18 1981 10.4 12.5 4.9 13.4 6 18.7 11.8 1982 6 10.8 2.7 11.9 5.3 16.3 8.6 1983 3.2 5.8 1.9 9.3 3.3 15 4.6 1984 4.3 4.4 2.2 7.3 2.4 10.6 5 1985 3.6 4 2 5.5 2.2 8.6 6.1 1986 1.9 4.1 0.6 2.5 -0.2 6.1 3.4 1987 3.7 4.4 0.1 3.3 0.2 4.6 4.1 1988 4.1 4.1 0.7 2.7 1.3 5 4.9 1989 4.8 5 2.3 3.5 2.8 6.6 7.8 1990 5.4 4.8 3.1 3.4 2.7 6.1 9.5 ADMINISTRATION FORECASTS Date U.S.CPI CanadaCPI JapanCPI FranceCPI GermCPI ItalyCPI U.K.CPI 1976 6 10 9.5 10 5 11.6 16 1977 6.5 7 9.5 6.5 5 14 11 1978 6 6.3 6 9 3.5 8 13 1979 6.5 7 6 9 3 9 9.6 1980 8.4 9 8.5 10.5 4.1 14.5 14.5 1981 10.3 10.6 5 12 4.4 16 13 1982 7 11.5 4.1 15.5 4 17.5 10.2 1983 5.2 7.6 3.3 12 3.9 14 5.3 1984 4.4 6.5 2.3 7.4 3.6 13.5 5.8 1985 4.6 4.6 2.9 6.3 2.5 10 5.9 1986 4.2 3.3 2 5.4 2.1 10 5 1987 2.8 3.9 -0.2 2.1 1.5 4.6 4.1 1988 4.4 4.8 0.9 3.1 1.9 6.1 4.4 1989 4.2 4.7 2.6 3.1 2.5 5.2 4.6 1990 4.2 4.8 1.6 3.6 2.6 6 5.9 DRI FORECASTS Date U.S.CPI CanadaCPI JapanCPI FranceCPI GermCPI ItalyCPI U.K.CPI 1976 7.1 9 NA NA NA NA NA 1977 4.9 7.8 NA NA NA NA NA 1978 5.9 6.9 NA NA NA NA NA 1979 7.9 7.9 NA NA NA NA NA 1980 9.6 8.8 NA NA NA NA NA 1981 10.4 10.5 NA NA NA NA NA 1982 7.9 10.1 NA NA NA NA NA 1983 5.2 7.2 3.3 10.5 3.5 15.2 6.1 1984 4.8 5.3 3 8.6 4.3 13.2 6.9 1985 3.8 3.4 2.8 6.5 2.8 10 5.1 1986 3.4 4 1.5 4.6 1.7 6.3 4.3 1987 2.9 4.5 0.9 3.2 0.9 4.8 3.7 1988 4.6 5.3 -1.1 3 1.8 5.9 4.1 1989 5 4.9 0.6 3.3 2.1 5.6 6.6 1990 4.1 4.7 1.7 3.1 2.9 5.2 6.6 BLUE CHIP FORECASTS GREENBOOK FORECASTS Date U.S. CPI Date U.S. CPI 1976 NA 1976 NA 1977 NA 1977 NA 1978 NA 1978 NA 1979 NA 1979 NA 1980 8.4 1980 9.4 1981 10.2 1981 9.2 1982 8.1 1982 8.1 1983 5.2 1983 5.1 1984 5 1984 5.1 1985 4.5 1985 4.1 1986 4.3 1986 3.8 1987 3.2 1987 3.7 1988 4.6 1988 4.4 1989 4.9 1989 4.6 1990 4.4 1990 4.1