******************************************************************************* * THIS IS THE DATA FILE THAT CORRESPONDS TO THE PROGRAM FILE IN THE PAPER * * "CAN NOMINAL GDP TARGETING RULES STABILIZE THE ECONOMY?" BY MICHAEL DUEKER * * WHICH APPEARS IN THE MAY/JUNE 1993 REVIEW. (NOTE: THE DATA IS STACKED.) * ******************************************************************************* DATA SOURCE: U.S. DEPT. OF LABOR, BEA VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS: CPI : CPI FOR ALL CONSUMERS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, 1982-1984=100 DATA SOURCE: U.S. DEPT. OF COMMERCE, BEA VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS: NGDP : GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BILLIONS OF 1987$ NGNP : GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, BILLIONS OF 1987$ GDPDEF: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR, GDP, 1987=100 GNPDEF: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR, GNP, 1987=100 DATA SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS: INDPRO : TOTAL INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 1987=100 CAPUTIL: MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE, RATIO OF ACTUAL OUTPUT TO CAPACITY OUTPUT BOGBASE: ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE, COMPUTED BY THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS, BILLIONS OF 1987$, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WASHINGTON, D.C. VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS: M1 : MONEY STOCK, M1, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TBILL3M: T-BILL RATE (3-MONTH) SECONDARY MARKET, AVERAGES OF DAILY CLOSING BID PRICES QUOTED ON A BANK-DISCOUNT BASIS DATA SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS: STLBASE: ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE, COMPUTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NOTE: DATE- QUARTERLY INDEX FROM 1959.1-1992.2 DATE INDPROD CPI NGDP NGNP GDPDEF GNPDEF M1 59.1 36.6 29 483.5 486.2 25.3 25.3 139.4 59.2 38.4 29 496.2 498.9 25.6 25.6 140.5 59.3 36.8 29.2 496.4 499.3 25.7 25.7 141.5 59.4 37 29.4 500.5 503.6 25.8 25.8 140.3 60.1 39.2 29.4 514 517 26 26 139.9 60.2 38.4 29.6 512.9 516 26 26 139.6 60.3 37.8 29.6 515.8 519 26.1 26.1 140.9 60.4 36.8 29.8 510.8 514.2 26 26 140.9 61.1 36.3 29.8 515.1 518.8 26 26 141.5 61.2 37.7 29.8 525.9 529.4 26.2 26.2 142.6 61.3 38.9 29.9 536.6 540.2 26.3 26.4 143.4 61.4 40.3 30 549.5 553.2 26.5 26.5 144.7 62.1 40.9 30.1 561.9 565.7 26.7 26.7 145.7 62.2 41.3 30.2 569.4 573.5 26.8 26.8 146.6 62.3 41.7 30.3 576.2 580.3 26.9 26.9 146.5 62.4 42.1 30.4 578.9 583.7 27 27 147.3 63.1 42.9 30.5 588.1 592.7 27.1 27.1 148.8 63.2 44 30.5 596.7 601.1 27.1 27.1 150.2 63.3 44.3 30.7 609.4 613.9 27.2 27.2 151.7 63.4 45 30.8 618.3 623 27.4 27.4 153.2 64.1 45.7 30.9 634.8 639.9 27.4 27.4 154.2 64.2 46.7 31 643.6 648.5 27.6 27.6 155.3 64.3 47.5 31.1 654.1 659.2 27.7 27.7 157.9 64.4 48.2 31.2 659.7 664.5 27.9 27.9 159.9 65.1 50 31.3 679.8 685.3 28.2 28.2 161.1 65.2 51.2 31.5 691.9 697.7 28.3 28.3 162.1 65.3 52.3 31.6 708.3 713.7 28.5 28.5 163.9 65.4 53.3 31.8 730.7 735.6 28.6 28.6 166.9 66.1 54.9 32.1 753.1 758.2 28.9 28.9 169.8 66.2 56 32.4 762.2 767.3 29.2 29.2 171.6 66.3 56.8 32.7 775.3 780.3 29.4 29.4 171.1 66.4 57.4 32.9 788.5 793.9 29.8 29.8 171.6 67.1 57.1 33 797.7 803 30 30 173.3 67.2 56.9 33.2 803.8 809 30.1 30.1 175.7 67.3 57.2 33.5 820.5 826.2 30.3 30.3 179.6 67.4 58.8 33.9 835.3 841 30.7 30.7 182.5 68.1 59.6 34.2 859.6 865.5 31.2 31.2 184.8 68.2 60.4 34.5 883.7 889.8 31.5 31.5 188.1 68.3 60.9 35 900.3 906.6 31.9 31.9 191.8 68.4 61.8 35.4 913.7 920 32.3 32.4 195.9 69.1 63 35.9 937.3 943.7 32.7 32.7 199.4 69.2 63.3 36.4 951.1 957.3 33.1 33.1 201 69.3 64 36.9 970.7 976.7 33.6 33.6 201.9 69.4 63.6 37.5 978.8 984.8 34 34 203.5 70.1 62.1 38.1 989.7 996 34.4 34.5 205.8 70.2 61.8 38.6 1003.8 1010.4 35.1 35.1 207.2 70.3 61.5 39 1022.8 1029.4 35.3 35.3 210 70.4 60.2 39.6 1026.4 1032.5 35.7 35.7 213.7 71.1 61.4 39.9 1069.8 1077.3 36.4 36.4 217.4 71.2 61.9 40.3 1088.2 1096.2 36.9 36.9 221.9 71.3 62.1 40.7 1108.4 1115.7 37.4 37.4 225.7 71.4 63.5 41 1122.3 1130.2 37.7 37.7 227.9 72.1 66 41.3 1160.9 1169.2 38.2 38.2 232.4 72.2 67.6 41.6 1192.5 1200.8 38.6 38.6 236.1 72.3 68.4 41.9 1217.7 1226.8 39 39 241 72.4 71 42.4 1256.8 1265.9 39.6 39.6 246.9 73.1 72.5 43 1304.4 1315.1 40.1 40.1 251.9 73.2 73.4 43.9 1334.5 1346.2 40.8 40.9 254.8 73.3 74.5 44.8 1358.4 1372.3 41.6 41.6 257.8 73.4 74.8 45.9 1401.2 1415.6 42.6 42.6 261 74.1 72.9 47.3 1410.9 1428.1 43.3 43.3 265.4 74.2 73.6 48.6 1444.1 1460.7 44.2 44.2 267.8 74.3 73.6 49.9 1474.7 1490.2 45.5 45.5 270.3 74.4 70.8 51.5 1504.8 1518.3 46.6 46.7 273.6 75.1 65.2 52.6 1513.6 1525.2 48 48 275.2 75.2 64.8 53.2 1552.1 1564 48.7 48.7 279.3 75.3 66.7 54.3 1614.4 1627.6 49.7 49.7 284.6 75.4 68.5 55.3 1663.3 1679.5 50.5 50.5 286.9 76.1 70.6 55.9 1717.8 1733.7 51.2 51.2 290.7 76.2 71.8 56.4 1746.4 1763.3 51.8 51.9 295.4 76.3 72.8 57.3 1779.9 1797.2 52.6 52.7 298.6 76.4 74.4 58.1 1829.6 1847.7 53.6 53.6 304.3 77.1 76 59.2 1881.7 1902.7 54.3 54.3 311.5 77.2 78.3 60.2 1952.9 1973.8 55.4 55.4 317 77.3 79.1 61.1 2015.1 2036.2 56.4 56.4 322.4 77.4 79.3 62 2046.8 2065.8 57.4 57.4 329.4 78.1 79.3 63 2090.2 2112.4 58.2 58.2 335.8 78.2 82.5 64.5 2213.9 2232.8 59.7 59.7 343.3 78.3 83.7 66 2274.7 2295.9 60.9 60.9 350.2 78.4 85 67.5 2352 2377.1 62.2 62.2 356.4 79.1 85.7 69.2 2399.2 2425.2 63.5 63.5 360.6 79.2 85.8 71.4 2453.3 2483 64.8 64.8 369.6 79.3 85.5 73.7 2523.3 2559.6 66.3 66.3 378.9 79.4 85.8 76 2578.8 2615.3 67.6 67.6 382.3 80.1 86.1 79 2650.1 2687.7 69.2 69.2 388.4 80.2 82.8 81.7 2643.9 2679.4 70.8 70.8 385.1 80.3 82.4 83.2 2705.3 2739.8 72.5 72.5 399.6 80.4 85.1 85.6 2832.9 2861.5 74.4 74.4 410.8 81.1 85.4 87.9 2953.5 2985.5 76.5 76.5 415 81.2 85.6 89.8 2993 3023.5 77.9 77.9 425.1 81.3 86.8 92.3 3079.6 3112.4 79.7 79.7 427.4 81.4 84.9 93.8 3096.3 3133.7 81.4 81.4 433 82.1 83.4 94.6 3092.9 3123.7 82.3 82.4 442.3 82.2 82.8 96 3146.2 3179.2 83.4 83.4 446.8 82.3 81.5 97.6 3164.2 3193.8 84.3 84.3 452.5 82.4 79.9 97.9 3195.1 3222.6 85 85 471.1 83.1 80.9 98 3254.9 3283.8 86 86 483.6 83.2 83.1 99.1 3367.1 3394 86.6 86.7 498.9 83.3 86.6 100.1 3450.9 3481.6 87.5 87.5 510.9 83.4 88.9 101.1 3547.3 3578.4 88.4 88.4 520 84.1 91.3 102.5 3666.9 3694.2 89.7 89.7 527.6 84.2 93 103.5 3754.6 3778.3 90.6 90.6 537 84.3 93.9 104.4 3818.2 3843.3 91.6 91.7 542.4 84.4 93.1 105.3 3869.1 3890.2 92.2 92.3 548.2 85.1 93.7 106.3 3940 3955.7 93.3 93.3 561.8 85.2 94.5 107.2 3997.5 4012.9 94 94 576.4 85.3 94.5 107.9 4076.9 4089.5 94.6 94.6 597.1 85.4 94.8 109 4140.5 4156.2 95.5 95.6 613.8 86.1 95.4 109.6 4215.7 4231.4 96 96 626.5 86.2 94.7 109 4232 4239.1 96.5 96.5 651.7 86.3 95 109.7 4290.2 4300 97.2 97.2 679.6 86.4 96.2 110.5 4336.6 4340.5 98 98 709 87.1 97.4 111.9 4408.3 4412.4 98.8 98.8 731.6 87.2 99.2 113.2 4494.9 4497.5 99.5 99.5 744.9 87.3 100.9 114.4 4573.5 4577.7 100.3 100.3 746.3 87.4 102.4 115.4 4683 4690.5 101.2 101.2 753.8 88.1 103.6 116.3 4752.4 4764.3 102.1 102.1 759.4 88.2 104.7 117.6 4857.2 4862.7 103.2 103.2 773.7 88.3 106.2 119.1 4947.3 4951.6 104.5 104.5 784 88.4 106.9 120.4 5044.6 5054.3 105.5 105.5 786 89.1 107.7 121.8 5150 5164 106.9 106.9 785.3 89.2 108.4 123.7 5229.5 5243.3 108.1 108.1 776.8 89.3 108.1 124.7 5278.9 5294.7 109.1 109.1 780.7 89.4 108.1 125.9 5344.8 5365 110.1 110.1 790.6 90.1 108.3 128.1 5445.2 5464.1 111.3 111.3 799.9 90.2 109.4 129.4 5522.6 5537 112.6 112.6 807.7 90.3 110.5 131.6 5559.6 5577.8 113.9 113.9 816.4 90.4 108.5 133.8 5561.3 5592.7 115 115 824.1 91.1 105.8 134.9 5585.8 5614.9 116.5 116.4 834.9 91.2 106.4 135.7 5657.6 5674.3 117.5 117.4 850.3 91.3 108.2 136.6 5713.1 5726.4 118.2 118.2 866.2 91.4 108 137.8 5753.3 5764.1 118.9 118.9 890.1 92.1 107.1 138.8 5840.2 5859.8 119.8 119.8 926.8 92.2 108.5 140 5902.2 5909.3 120.6 120.6 949.6 DATE STLBASE BOGBASE TBILL3M CAPUTIL M2 59.1 43.3 40.5 2.77 81.3723 287.9 59.2 43.6 40.7 3 84.5589 292.2 59.3 43.8 41 3.54 80.4988 296.1 59.4 43.8 40.9 4.23 80.0757 297.2 60.1 43.8 40.7 3.87 84.4715 298.7 60.2 43.6 40.6 2.99 81.318 301.1 60.3 43.9 40.9 2.36 78.8989 306.5 60.4 44.3 41.1 2.31 75.8523 311 61.1 44.4 40.9 2.35 73.8284 316.3 61.2 44.4 40.8 2.3 76.3543 322.2 61.3 44.8 41.2 2.3 78.4144 327.6 61.4 45.3 41.8 2.46 80.6409 333.4 62.1 45.7 41.9 2.72 81.1862 340.3 62.2 46.2 42.2 2.71 81.3356 347.4 62.3 46.4 42.5 2.84 81.5601 352.9 62.4 46.8 42.9 2.81 81.6345 360 63.1 47.4 43.2 2.91 82.3156 368 63.2 48 43.6 2.94 83.7831 375.9 63.3 48.6 44.2 3.29 83.5563 383.6 63.4 49.1 44.7 3.5 84.2037 391.2 64.1 49.8 45.2 3.53 84.4956 397.6 64.2 50.4 45.7 3.48 85.5447 404.3 64.3 51.2 46.4 3.5 86.057 413.4 64.4 51.8 47 3.68 86.492 422.1 65.1 52.5 47.5 3.89 88.866 430.5 65.2 53.1 47.9 3.87 89.3981 437.5 65.3 53.8 48.5 3.87 89.9023 445.9 65.4 54.7 49.3 4.17 89.9839 456.1 66.1 55.6 50 4.61 91.1195 464.7 66.2 56.3 50.6 4.59 91.5667 470.1 66.3 56.9 51.1 5.04 91.2437 473 66.4 57.1 51.4 5.21 90.5906 477.9 67.1 58 52.2 4.51 88.5961 485.4 67.2 58.7 52.7 3.66 86.8065 497.1 67.3 59.7 53.4 4.3 85.9992 510.8 67.4 60.8 54.3 4.75 87.3655 521.4 68.1 61.8 55.2 5.05 87.4039 530.1 68.2 62.6 56 5.52 87.3702 539.2 68.3 63.8 56.9 5.2 86.7776 549.9 68.4 65.1 57.9 5.59 87.2191 562.2 69.1 66.1 58.8 6.09 87.8064 571.7 69.2 66.6 59.5 6.2 87.0718 577 69.3 67 60.1 7.02 87.005 580.9 69.4 67.7 61.1 7.35 85.3501 586.8 70.1 68.4 62 7.21 82.0221 589.7 70.2 69.5 63 6.68 80.6353 594 70.3 70.7 63.7 6.33 79.3379 606.3 70.4 72 64.6 5.35 76.6067 622.7 71.1 73.6 66 3.84 77.7667 642.7 71.2 75 67.2 4.25 77.9108 668.4 71.3 76.6 68.5 5.01 77.6745 687.7 71.4 77.5 68.9 4.23 79.426 706.7 72.1 78.8 70.4 3.44 81.8843 727.9 72.2 80.4 71.4 3.77 83.189 746.9 72.3 81.7 72.6 4.22 83.6389 771.7 72.4 83.8 74.4 4.86 86.2281 797.1 73.1 85.6 76.3 5.7 87.5889 816.8 73.2 87.3 77.4 6.6 88.0249 830.5 73.3 88.7 78.9 8.32 88.4875 843.2 73.4 90.2 80.6 7.5 88.2106 854.7 74.1 92.1 82.3 7.62 85.2879 870.9 74.2 94.3 84.3 8.15 85.0937 881.9 74.3 95.9 85.9 8.19 84.4402 891.6 74.4 98 87 7.36 80.2223 904.8 75.1 99.5 88.3 5.75 72.5014 921.3 75.2 101.4 89.8 5.39 71.5 955.1 75.3 103.4 91.7 6.33 73.5128 989.9 75.4 105.2 93.2 5.63 75.2465 1014.3 76.1 106.9 95 4.92 77.3021 1046.3 76.2 109.3 97.2 5.16 77.9863 1078.9 76.3 111 98.8 5.15 78.7477 1108.5 76.4 113.2 100.8 4.67 79.7665 1149.5 77.1 115.2 102.7 4.63 81.2639 1188.3 77.2 117.5 104.6 4.84 83.073 1221 77.3 120.2 107.2 5.5 83.4897 1250.6 77.4 122.7 109.6 6.11 83.3846 1278.4 78.1 125.8 112.2 6.39 82.9314 1302 78.2 128.5 114.4 6.48 85.0275 1325.5 78.3 131.4 117.1 7.31 85.6312 1351.7 78.4 134.2 119.7 8.57 86.7451 1380.3 79.1 136.6 121.6 9.38 86.7943 1403 79.2 139 123.6 9.38 85.8648 1436.2 79.3 142.5 127.1 9.67 84.7746 1471.3 79.4 145.5 130.3 11.84 84.2454 1491.9 80.1 147.9 132.8 13.35 83.8143 1518.2 80.2 150 135.1 9.62 79.2114 1536.1 80.3 154 137.9 9.15 77.8298 1589 80.4 157.6 141.2 13.61 80.1022 1625.3 81.1 158.5 142.3 14.39 79.9304 1653.6 81.2 161.6 144.5 14.91 79.6224 1697.3 81.3 163.2 146.4 15.05 79.1716 1732.5 81.4 164.4 147.9 11.75 76.2898 1776.6 82.1 167.9 150.4 12.81 74.7376 1817.9 82.2 170.4 152.8 12.42 73.7202 1851.9 82.3 173 155.5 9.32 72.3314 1892.1 82.4 176.9 158.8 7.91 70.4634 1938 83.1 182.1 163.1 8.11 71.7714 2038.3 83.2 187.1 167.9 8.4 73.6696 2094.5 83.3 191.1 171.2 9.14 76.2288 2131.4 83.4 195.1 174.6 8.8 78.0324 2175.4 84.1 199.5 177.9 9.17 79.9286 2218.4 84.2 203.3 181 9.8 80.6088 2263.4 84.3 206.1 183.7 10.32 80.8748 2298.5 84.4 208.4 186.3 8.8 80.1529 2349.6 85.1 211.7 189.4 8.18 79.7582 2419.4 85.2 216.1 192.9 7.46 79.9643 2456.2 85.3 221.4 197.8 7.11 79.3805 2513 85.4 226.2 202.2 7.17 79.0699 2553.7 86.1 229.6 205.5 6.9 79.2826 2587.8 86.2 235.4 210 6.14 78.7111 2653.8 86.3 241.6 215.2 5.52 78.7384 2725.6 86.4 248 221 5.35 79.3974 2788.9 87.1 254.2 226.4 5.54 79.9483 2831.9 87.2 259.1 230.3 5.65 81.0288 2851.8 87.3 262 233.5 6.04 81.9794 2876.2 87.4 266.9 238.6 5.87 82.7951 2908.6 88.1 271.4 242.9 5.72 83.104 2954.1 88.2 277 247.5 6.22 83.6322 3010.5 88.3 281.7 252.3 7.02 84.3236 3035.8 88.4 285.1 255.9 7.73 84.5663 3060.6 89.1 287.3 258.5 8.55 84.6583 3078.4 89.2 289.1 260.2 8.4 84.5485 3093.6 89.3 291.4 263 7.85 83.6621 3149.7 89.4 294.7 266.2 7.65 82.8865 3206.9 90.1 299.9 271.4 7.76 82.6694 3256.3 90.2 306.2 276.8 7.75 82.8439 3285.5 90.3 313 284.1 7.48 82.9312 3315.7 90.4 320.2 291.3 6.99 80.7706 3335.7 91.1 330.9 300.8 6.03 78.0303 3366.8 91.2 335.1 303.9 5.56 77.8933 3404.1 91.3 340 308.9 5.38 78.7088 3409.5 91.4 347 315.3 4.55 78.1957 3429 92.1 355.1 322.5 3.9 77.2927 3465.8 92.2 362.7 328.2 3.68 77.8883 287.9