ALLAN MELTZER REAL EXCHANGE RATES: SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE POSTWAR YEARS TABLE 2 (THIS TABLE WAS DONE IN LOTUS.) REAL GDP (OR GNP) AND TERMS OF TRADE GDP (GNP) TOT DATE US GER JPN UK US GER JPN UK 1959.1 1909.7 . 54857 186 1.1939 1.0645 2.1521 0.9473 1959.2 1941.2 . 56697 190 1.1982 1.0567 2.173 0.9604 1959.3 1931.7 . 59634 193 1.2008 1.0639 2.2491 0.9447 1959.4 1942.7 . 59076 198 1.1991 1.0585 2.2603 0.9397 1960.1 1977.8 836 63221 201 1.2025 1.066 2.2579 0.9486 1960.2 1973.5 849 63322 198 1.1974 1.0635 2.2083 0.9611 1960.3 1976.2 877 65518 201 1.2016 1.0909 2.2673 0.9676 1960.4 1965.1 887 68140 203 1.2016 1.0961 2.2558 0.9611 1961.1 1979.7 897 70022 207 1.2161 1.1067 2.1993 0.9713 1961.2 2008.8 893 71387 208 1.2278 1.116 2.1309 0.9618 1961.3 2036.5 901 72699 208 1.205 1.1275 2.129 0.981 1961.4 2077.4 908 76224 206 1.2259 1.1328 2.1241 0.981 1962.1 2105.8 928 77282 206 1.2372 1.124 2.1213 0.981 1962.2 2127.5 937 78367 211 1.2194 1.1237 2.1395 0.981 1962.3 2143.9 952 79349 210 1.2161 1.1435 2.1655 0.981 1962.4 2142.1 953 80843 210 1.2109 1.135 2.1587 0.9907 1963.1 2173.5 919 81903 211 1.2 1.0995 2.1661 0.9808 1963.2 2203.1 959 84266 219 1.2033 1.1127 2.1437 0.9713 1963.3 2239 996 86577 219 1.1803 1.1265 2.1363 0.9807 1963.4 2256.4 999 89505 224 1.1788 1.1094 2.0949 0.9713 1964.1 2315 1006 92441 226 1.1693 1.1004 2.0911 0.9531 1964.2 2333.2 1033 94996 230 1.1646 1.1183 2.1341 0.9713 1964.3 2359.8 1037 96425 228 1.1646 1.1334 2.1585 0.9804 1964.4 2365.1 1052 97244 234 1.1752 1.1267 2.1419 0.9713 1965.1 2410.4 1069 98300 233 1.1865 1.1179 2.1836 0.9804 1965.2 2443.9 1088 99828 233 1.1904 1.1124 2.1737 0.9804 1965.3 2488.1 1089 101991 235 1.1857 1.1202 2.1672 0.9988 1965.4 2551.4 1103 103194 238 1.1679 1.1069 2.1573 0.9894 1966.1 2601.8 1125 106175 237 1.1914 1.0933 2.1125 0.9983 1966.2 2606.7 1127 110734 239 1.1937 1.107 2.1121 0.9978 1966.3 2634.7 1119 113290 240 1.2062 1.1325 2.1185 1.0069 1966.4 2646.1 1108 115375 242 1.2115 1.1405 2.1488 1.0069 1967.1 2662.1 1103 118481 246 1.223 1.1384 2.1423 1.0252 1967.2 2673.7 1113 121611 246 1.2277 1.1492 2.1568 1.0348 1967.3 2704.9 1114 125831 248 1.2145 1.1442 2.1672 1.0342 1967.4 2720.6 1144 128271 245 1.2316 1.1361 2.1286 0.9971 1968.1 2758 1151 131195 256 1.2384 1.1238 2.1114 0.9794 1968.2 2802.2 1160 135965 252 1.2442 1.1431 2.1461 0.9873 1968.3 2819.1 1182 139078 258 1.2205 1.157 2.1672 0.9952 1968.4 2824.8 1203 147869 261 1.2281 1.1398 2.1628 0.995 1969.1 2867.4 1233 148715 256 1.248 1.1495 2.1511 1.0026 1969.2 2872.5 1249 152915 259 1.2452 1.1504 2.136 0.9946 1969.3 2887.9 1277 156342 262 1.2471 1.1593 2.1613 0.9789 1969.4 2880.6 1293 163147 264 1.2564 1.2023 2.1855 0.9713 1970.1 2872.2 1295 167869 261 1.2527 1.1995 2.1707 1.0037 1970.2 2859.4 1328 169349 267 1.2607 1.2047 2.1702 1.0037 1970.3 2896.5 1335 174183 268 1.2326 1.2232 2.1913 1.0222 1970.4 2875.3 1354 173975 271 1.231 1.2269 2.1795 1.0202 1971.1 2947.1 1360 174721 266 1.224 1.2296 2.1432 1.0199 1971.2 2953.8 1361 177579 273 1.224 1.2286 2.1234 1.0017 1971.3 2972.8 1375 180593 278 1.2166 1.263 2.1303 1.021 1971.4 2986.6 1381 182447 278 1.2251 1.2795 2.1942 1.0477 1972.1 3040.1 1401 187510 275 1.198 1.2846 2.1921 1.0494 1972.2 3090 1416 191447 280 1.188 1.2911 2.1844 1.047 1972.3 3124.6 1432 195337 279 1.1723 1.2952 2.198 1.0386 1972.4 3173.6 1460 200310 287 1.1782 1.2965 2.1207 1.0048 1973.1 3252.2 1482 206664 304 1.1847 1.2314 2.0086 0.9848 1973.2 3267.5 1491 208570 303 1.1593 1.2186 2.0253 0.9449 1973.3 3264.9 1501 208695 303 1.1623 1.2371 1.9381 0.8944 1973.4 3289.7 1504 210303 299 1.1625 1.1624 1.9316 0.8623 1974.1 3259.4 1506 204901 296 1.0615 1.0572 1.6714 0.803 1974.2 3267.6 1500 206587 299 0.9735 1.1016 1.5755 0.7903 1974.3 3239.1 1496 208886 303 0.9677 1.1219 1.5673 0.8066 1974.4 3226.4 1481 207550 300 0.9724 1.1264 1.5109 0.8239 1975.1 3154 1460 207286 298 0.9949 1.1688 1.4642 0.8597 1975.2 3190.4 1465 212627 298 0.9796 1.1864 1.4384 0.872 1975.3 3249.9 1486 214853 294 1.0086 1.1622 1.3935 0.8772 1975.4 3292.5 1501 217330 300 1.0172 1.1387 1.348 0.872 1976.1 3356.7 1535 219164 307 1.0169 1.1408 1.3272 0.868 1976.2 3369.2 1557 220965 304 1.0183 1.1408 1.3296 0.8477 1976.3 3381 1564 223676 308 1 1.1342 1.3338 0.8505 1976.4 3416.3 1581 224300 314 1.008 1.1453 1.3309 0.8438 1977.1 3466.4 1588 229657 308 0.9799 1.1229 1.2956 0.8575 1977.2 3525 1587 231509 308 0.9712 1.1238 1.2942 0.8675 1977.3 3574.4 1599 232903 311 0.9641 1.1539 1.3462 0.8783 1977.4 3567.2 1620 236344 319 0.96 1.165 1.382 0.8969 1978.1 3591.8 1633 240192 320 0.9578 1.1913 1.4103 0.9388 1978.2 3707 1646 242145 322 0.9743 1.199 1.4735 0.9233 1978.3 3735.6 1661 245560 324 0.9719 1.2115 1.5785 0.9342 1978.4 3779.6 1676 248627 328 0.9834 1.215 1.5722 0.9338 1979.1 3780.8 1686 252822 322 0.9722 1.1791 1.5095 0.9478 1979.2 3784.3 1722 257042 339 0.9686 1.1374 1.3913 0.9688 1979.3 3807.5 1733 259513 330 0.9288 1.1101 1.235 0.9878 1979.4 3814.6 1744 261487 333 0.8904 1.0968 1.1385 0.9747 1980.1 3830.8 1753 265233 328 0.848 1.0533 0.9729 0.9882 1980.2 3732.6 1738 264410 323 0.8465 1.0436 0.9699 1.0086 1980.3 3733.5 1734 266954 326 0.8639 1.0526 0.9645 1.0244 1980.4 3808.5 1730 270188 321 0.8757 1.0253 0.9793 1.0171 1981.1 3860.5 1737 273985 322 0.8651 0.9851 0.9772 1.0325 1981.2 3844.4 1736 274198 321 0.8705 0.9713 0.9616 1.0259 1981.3 3864.5 1745 276900 321 0.9053 0.9543 0.9637 1.0157 1981.4 3803.1 1744 278095 322 0.9192 0.9761 0.9694 1.0012 1982.1 3756.1 1726 281150 324 0.9334 0.9839 0.9637 1.0126 1982.2 3771.1 1726 284611 325 0.9716 0.9978 0.9487 1 1982.3 3754.4 1720 286173 324 0.9556 0.9935 0.9204 1.0123 1982.4 3759.6 1716 289053 328 0.9614 0.9882 0.8973 1.0072 1983.1 3783.5 1732 290073 335 1.0105 1.0174 0.9206 1.0023 1983.2 3886.5 1752 291140 336 0.9968 1.0262 0.9591 0.9931 1983.3 3944.4 1752 295495 338 0.9989 1.0053 0.9557 1.0056 1983.4 4012.1 1772 296342 342 1.0293 0.9989 0.9671 1.0022 1984.1 4089.5 1800 301414 344 1.0292 0.9927 0.9755 1 1984.2 4144 1787 305365 342 1.0386 0.9938 0.9862 0.9968 1984.3 4166.4 1808 307061 342 1.0541 0.9848 1 0.9865 1984.4 4194.2 1821 309746 346 1.0544 0.9791 0.9961 0.9939 1985.1 4221.8 1819 315125 352 1.0827 0.9661 0.9831 0.9856 1985.2 4254.8 1836 320880 357 1.0712 0.9843 0.9856 0.997 1985.3 4309 1848 322846 357 1.0646 1.0141 1.006 1.003 1985.4 4333.5 1847 327373 358 1.0371 1.0386 1.0301 1.0146 1986.1 4390.5 1858 324555 363 1.0242 1.0949 1.0988 0.9698 1986.2 4387.7 1883 329483 368 1.0499 1.1586 1.3364 0.9447 1986.3 4412.6 1884 331117 373 1.041 1.2014 1.4963 0.9363 1986.4 4427.1 1893 335612 377 1.0405 1.2119 1.4599 0.9326 1987.1 4460 1886 337798 379 1.0154 1.2204 1.4027 0.9378 1987.2 4515.3 1898 339775 384 1.002 1.2183 1.3795 0.9641 1987.3 4559.3 1917 346064 392 0.992 1.2141 1.3465 0.9724 1987.4 4625.5 1936 353609 399 0.9902 1.2245 1.3429 0.9682 1988.1 4655.3 1957 359513 398 0.9894 1.2329 1.3783 0.9636 1988.2 4704.8 1963 362196 401 0.9952 1.2344 1.3928 0.9729 1988.3 4734.5 1990 368986 406 1.0191 1.2254 1.3961 0.9764 1988.4 4779.7 2009 373442 409 1.0056 1.2301 1.4405 0.9693 1989.1 4809.8 2029 377327 410 0.9972 1.2078 1.4063 0.9849 1989.2 4832.4 2054 377326 411 0.9908 1.1988 1.3425 0.9825 1989.3 4845.6 2053 386419 414 1.0065 1.2161 1.3446 0.9715 1989.4 4859.7 2078 391512 416 0.9962 1.2215 1.3527 0.9675 1990.1 4880.8 2109 397816 418 0.9711 1.2354 1.325 0.9715 1990.2 4900.3 2123 403252 421 0.9945 1.2573 1.3151 0.9724 1990.3 4903.3 2164 407811 416 0.9838 1.2472 1.3054 1.0103 1990.4 4855.1 2182 410402 411 0.9351 1.2161 1.1739 1.013 1991.1 4824 2197 421406 408 0.9726 1.2457 . 0.9953 1991.2 4840.7 2224 . 406 0.9936 1.246 . 0.9888 1991.3 4861 . . . 0.9945 1.2506 . . GROWTH RATES OF REAL GDP (OR GNP) AND OF TERMS OF TRADE GDP (GNP) TOT DATE US GER JPN UK US GER JPN UK 1959.1 1959.2 6.6 13.42 8.44 1.44 -2.95 3.9 5.52 1959.3 -1.96 20.73 8.03 0.86 2.74 14.01 -6.52 1959.4 2.28 -3.75 10.12 -0.57 -2.04 1.98 -2.12 1960.1 7.23 28.06 5.48 1.13 2.83 -0.42 3.76 1960.2 -0.87 6.31 0.64 -6.56 -1.68 -0.94 -8.79 5.27 1960.3 0.55 12.87 13.87 6.18 1.4 10.3 10.69 2.72 1960.4 -2.25 4.52 16.01 4.69 0 1.92 -2.03 -2.7 1961.1 2.97 4.89 11.05 8.08 4.8 3.88 -10.01 4.25 1961.2 5.88 -1.89 7.8 0.73 3.86 3.34 -12.43 -3.92 1961.3 5.52 3.59 7.35 0.55 -7.44 4.1 -0.37 8 1961.4 8.03 3.14 19.4 -3.37 6.94 1.89 -0.91 0 1962.1 5.47 8.72 5.55 0.42 3.7 -3.09 -0.54 0 1962.2 4.12 4.06 5.62 8.23 -5.78 -0.11 3.44 0 1962.3 3.08 6.23 5.01 -0.66 -1.08 7.05 4.86 0 1962.4 -0.34 0.2 7.53 -0.04 -1.69 -3 -1.25 3.96 1963.1 5.86 -14.05 5.24 1.43 -3.62 -12.51 1.36 -4 1963.2 5.45 17.44 11.54 15.49 1.11 4.81 -4.12 -3.89 1963.3 6.52 15.53 10.97 -0.66 -7.64 4.96 -1.39 3.88 1963.4 3.11 0.95 13.53 9.02 -0.5 -6.06 -7.76 -3.85 1964.1 10.39 3.02 13.12 3.89 -3.23 -3.25 -0.71 -7.48 1964.2 3.14 10.49 11.06 6.41 -1.61 6.5 8.22 7.62 1964.3 4.56 1.64 6.01 -2.09 0 5.41 4.57 3.77 1964.4 0.9 5.64 3.4 10.09 3.65 -2.36 -3.08 -3.74 1965.1 7.66 6.63 4.34 -1.78 3.81 -3.15 7.78 3.74 1965.2 5.56 7.06 6.22 0.01 1.34 -1.97 -1.8 0 1965.3 7.23 0.52 8.67 3.09 -1.58 2.83 -1.21 7.51 1965.4 10.18 5.02 4.72 4.99 -6.01 -4.75 -1.82 -3.74 1966.1 7.9 7.86 11.55 -0.59 8.03 -4.91 -8.31 3.57 1966.2 0.75 0.84 17.18 2.96 0.8 5 -0.07 -0.19 1966.3 4.3 -2.85 9.23 0.6 4.16 9.21 1.21 3.67 1966.4 1.73 -4.04 7.36 4.65 1.76 2.81 5.72 0 1967.1 2.42 -1.53 10.77 6.58 3.81 -0.71 -1.2 7.27 1967.2 1.74 3.59 10.57 -0.97 1.54 3.79 2.7 3.74 1967.3 4.67 0.17 13.88 3.5 -4.31 -1.77 1.92 -0.23 1967.4 2.32 11 7.76 -4.44 5.63 -2.82 -7.12 -14.37 1968.1 5.5 2.37 9.12 16.91 2.21 -4.34 -3.22 -7.1 1968.2 6.41 2.93 14.54 -5.53 1.88 6.89 6.56 3.25 1968.3 2.41 7.75 9.16 9.64 -7.63 4.83 3.93 3.17 1968.4 0.81 7.19 25.28 4.71 2.49 -5.94 -0.8 -0.08 1969.1 6.03 10 2.29 -7.92 6.5 3.41 -2.17 3.07 1969.2 0.71 4.94 11.3 4.63 -0.9 0.32 -2.8 -3.2 1969.3 2.14 9.25 8.96 4.44 0.61 3.09 4.74 -6.3 1969.4 -1.01 4.9 17.41 3.45 2.96 14.85 4.47 -3.13 1970.1 -1.17 0.62 11.58 -5.28 -1.18 -0.95 -2.71 13.35 1970.2 -1.78 10.16 3.53 9.21 2.56 1.73 -0.1 -0.02 1970.3 5.19 2.17 11.42 1.7 -8.91 6.17 3.9 7.38 1970.4 -2.93 5.53 -0.48 4.88 -0.52 1.2 -2.15 -0.77 1971.1 9.99 1.9 1.72 -7.26 -2.26 0.9 -6.66 -0.12 1971.2 0.91 0.24 6.54 9.81 0 -0.35 -3.7 -7.14 1971.3 2.57 4.24 6.79 8.24 -2.42 11.2 1.28 7.69 1971.4 1.86 1.52 4.11 0.2 2.79 5.22 12.01 10.49 1972.1 7.17 5.93 11.1 -4.39 -8.84 1.62 -0.38 0.64 1972.2 6.57 4.35 8.4 6.9 -3.34 2.02 -1.41 -0.93 1972.3 4.48 4.53 8.13 -1.14 -5.31 1.26 2.49 -3.2 1972.4 6.27 7.62 10.18 10.56 2.03 0.41 -14.07 -13.02 1973.1 9.91 6.26 12.69 24.52 2.21 -20.09 -21.14 -7.95 1973.2 1.88 2.38 3.69 -1.58 -8.58 -4.14 3.33 -16.23 1973.3 -0.32 2.58 0.24 0.66 1.02 6.07 -17.22 -21.36 1973.4 3.04 0.96 3.08 -5.36 0.09 -24.17 -1.35 -14.34 1974.1 -3.68 0.43 -10.27 -4.71 -34.75 -36.18 -53.88 -27.53 1974.2 1.01 -1.49 3.29 4.46 -33.17 16.78 -22.94 -6.3 1974.3 -3.49 -1.28 4.45 5.46 -2.38 7.38 -2.08 8.23 1974.4 -1.57 -3.97 -2.56 -4.87 1.95 1.59 -14.4 8.6 1975.1 -8.98 -5.63 -0.51 -1.56 9.25 15.08 -12.35 17.38 1975.2 4.62 1.43 10.31 -0.83 -6.13 6 -7.06 5.71 1975.3 7.46 5.58 4.19 -5.32 11.83 -8.16 -12.49 2.36 1975.4 5.24 4.21 4.61 8.18 3.4 -8.1 -13.07 -2.37 1976.1 7.8 8.98 3.38 9.89 -0.1 0.74 -6.15 -1.8 1976.2 1.49 5.75 3.29 -3.53 0.56 0.01 0.71 -9.36 1976.3 1.4 1.85 4.91 4.62 -7.22 -2.31 1.25 1.32 1976.4 4.18 4.31 1.12 8.02 3.22 3.9 -0.84 -3.18 1977.1 5.87 1.62 9.55 -7.3 -11.16 -7.82 -10.61 6.51 1977.2 6.76 -0.1 3.23 -0.22 -3.53 0.34 -0.46 4.67 1977.3 5.61 2.93 2.41 3.73 -2.93 10.71 16.07 4.96 1977.4 -0.81 5.22 5.91 9.93 -1.71 3.86 10.66 8.48 1978.1 2.76 3.27 6.51 1.15 -0.92 9.03 8.18 18.69 1978.2 12.83 3.24 3.25 3.15 6.88 2.57 17.94 -6.62 1978.3 3.09 3.7 5.64 1.84 -0.96 4.17 28.49 4.75 1978.4 4.71 3.48 5 5.42 4.73 1.17 -1.6 -0.21 1979.1 0.13 2.49 6.75 -8.08 -4.57 -11.82 -15.95 6.01 1979.2 0.37 8.47 6.68 22.06 -1.49 -14.14 -31.34 8.88 1979.3 2.45 2.61 3.85 -10.58 -16.44 -9.6 -44.92 7.81 1979.4 0.75 2.59 3.04 3.02 -16.52 -4.8 -31.27 -5.29 1980.1 1.7 1.93 5.73 -5.3 -19.07 -15.86 -58.15 5.53 1980.2 -10.25 -3.48 -1.24 -7.07 -0.7 -3.67 -1.24 8.25 1980.3 0.1 -0.74 3.85 4.56 8.25 3.45 -2.22 6.27 1980.4 8.04 -1.02 4.85 -6.46 5.43 -10.38 6.1 -2.83 1981.1 5.46 1.58 5.62 0.96 -4.82 -15.68 -0.83 6.06 1981.2 -1.67 -0.19 0.31 -1.53 2.47 -5.6 -6.38 -2.55 1981.3 2.09 2.13 3.94 0.2 16.02 -7.04 0.87 -4 1981.4 -6.36 -0.37 1.73 1.06 6.14 9.15 2.37 -5.7 1982.1 -4.94 -4.14 4.39 2.82 6.18 3.2 -2.38 4.55 1982.2 1.6 0 4.92 1.81 16.36 5.65 -6.2 -4.99 1982.3 -1.77 -1.3 2.2 -0.99 -6.56 -1.71 -11.96 4.93 1982.4 0.55 -0.84 4.03 4.73 2.4 -2.13 -10 -2.01 1983.1 2.54 3.65 1.41 8.72 20.44 11.81 10.35 -1.96 1983.2 10.89 4.73 1.47 0.23 -5.41 3.47 16.73 -3.65 1983.3 5.96 0 5.98 3.22 0.84 -8.17 -1.41 5.03 1983.4 6.87 4.49 1.15 3.73 12.16 -2.53 4.77 -1.36 1984.1 7.72 6.34 6.85 2.62 -0.02 -2.47 3.48 -0.89 1984.2 5.33 -2.85 5.24 -2.1 3.64 0.44 4.36 -1.27 1984.3 2.16 4.67 2.22 -0.42 5.98 -3.61 5.59 -4.12 1984.4 2.67 2.75 3.5 5.12 0.11 -2.34 -1.55 3.01 1985.1 2.63 -0.44 6.95 6.88 10.73 -5.3 -5.21 -3.33 1985.2 3.13 3.79 7.31 5.31 -4.25 7.53 1.01 4.62 1985.3 5.1 2.71 2.45 0.37 -2.48 12.13 8.28 2.41 1985.4 2.27 -0.17 5.61 1.71 -10.32 9.66 9.57 4.61 1986.1 5.26 2.34 -3.44 5.34 -4.96 21.67 26.7 -17.66 1986.2 -0.26 5.35 6.07 5.37 10.02 23.28 86.48 -10.33 1986.3 2.27 0.17 1.98 5.41 -3.38 14.79 47.85 -3.6 1986.4 1.31 1.87 5.43 3.71 -0.19 3.49 -9.74 -1.56 1987.1 2.97 -1.53 2.61 2.64 -9.65 2.78 -15.67 2.24 1987.2 4.96 2.64 2.34 5.37 -5.31 -0.68 -6.61 11.19 1987.3 3.9 3.97 7.4 8.21 -3.97 -1.35 -9.57 3.45 1987.4 5.81 4.1 8.72 6.69 -0.73 3.42 -1.06 -1.72 1988.1 2.58 4.22 6.68 -0.62 -0.34 2.75 10.54 -1.89 1988.2 4.25 1.23 2.99 3.57 2.37 0.46 4.22 3.87 1988.3 2.53 5.48 7.5 4.41 9.58 -2.89 0.96 1.42 1988.4 3.82 3.79 4.83 3.5 -5.28 1.51 12.72 -2.9 1989.1 2.52 4.07 4.16 0.85 -3.36 -7.24 -9.5 6.43 1989.2 1.88 4.82 0 0.8 -2.57 -2.98 -18.14 -0.98 1989.3 1.09 -0.16 9.64 2.9 6.35 5.78 0.6 -4.45 1989.4 1.16 4.84 5.27 1.5 -4.08 1.78 2.42 -1.67 1990.1 1.74 6.02 6.44 2.06 -10.09 4.55 -8.21 1.65 1990.2 1.6 2.66 5.47 3.44 9.62 7.11 -2.97 0.37 1990.3 0.24 7.78 4.52 -5.44 -4.3 -3.22 -2.96 15.59 1990.4 -3.93 3.34 2.54 -4.81 -19.78 -9.98 -40.28 1.07 1991.1 -2.56 2.65 10.73 -2.42 16.05 9.74 -7 1991.2 1.38 5.04 -1.84 8.63 0.11 1991.3 1.68 0.35 1.45 TABLE 2 WAS DONE IN LOTUS USING THE FUNCTION @VAR(...) GDP or GNP Period U.S. Germany Japan U.K. -------------------------------------------- 60:1-71:3 11 27.9 32.3 30 73:1-91:3 15.7 8.5 11.3 32.6 Rel. Val. 1.4 0.3 0.3 1.1 73:1-75:2 24.2 10.6 37.4 70.5 75:3-80:2 19.7 7.1 5.1 59.8 80:3-87:3 13.3 6.6 5.8 10.6 87:4-91:3 5.2 3.5 7.8 11 TOT Period U.S. Germany Japan U.K. -------------------------------------------- 60:1-71:3 15.5 26 23.5 25.9 73:1-91:3 92.2 92.5 390.8 62.6 Rel. Val. 5.9 3.6 16.6 2.4 73:1-75:2 202.3 285.2 237.7 197.3 75:3-80:2 60.2 52.4 431.1 40.8 80:3-87:3 61.7 78.2 388.8 31.6 87:4-91:3 71 24.8 170.8 27.6 THIS IS THE RATS PROGRAM THAT CREATES 2 TABLES (3 AND 4) FOR ALLAN MELTZER'S PAPER TITLED "REAL EXCHANGE RATES: SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE POSTWAR YEARS." NOTE - SEE DATA APPENDIX IN THE PAPER FOR DETAILED DATA DESCRIPTIONS. TABLE 3 - DATA IS FOUND IN AN ASCII FILE TITLED "ANNUAL" (IT IS ALSO FOUND BELOW) CAL 55 ALL 0 92:1 OPEN DATA A:ANNUAL DATA(ORG=OBS) / YEAR RER TWM TWCPI M1 CPI DEF NGDP RER12 VARIABLES : RER - REAL EXCHANGE RATE TWM - NOMINAL TRADE-WEIGHTED MONEY BALANCES TWCPI - TRADE-WEIGHTED CPI DEF - NOMINAL DEFENSE SPENDING NGDP - NOMINAL GDP RER12 - DECEMBER'S VALUE OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE SET RER1 = RER(T-1) (LAGGED REAL EXCHANGE RATE) SET RER121 = RER12(T-1) SET M = 100*M1(T)/CPI(T) (REAL M1) SET MSTAR = 100*TWM(T)/TWCPI(T) (REAL TRADE-WEIGHTED MONEY) SET D = 100*DEF(T)/NGDP(T) (DEFENSE SPENDING SHARE OF GDP) AR1(METHOD=HILU) RER 61:1 91:1 RESIDS1 (COLUMN 1) # CONSTANT RER1 M MSTAR D SET PRRER = RER(T)-RESIDS1(T) (PREDICTED SERIES FOR FIGURE 3) PRINT / RER PRRER AR1(METHOD=HILU) RER 71:1 91:1 (COLUMN 2) # CONSTANT RER1 M MSTAR D AR1(METHOD=HILU) RER12 61:1 91:1 (COLUMN 4) # CONSTANT RER121 M MSTAR D AR1(METHOD=HILU) RER12 71:1 91:1 (COLUMN 5) # CONSTANT RER121 M MSTAR D THIS NEXT STEP USES QUARTERLY DATA FOR COLUMN 3 OF TABLE 3 CAL 59 1 4 ALL 0 92:2 OPEN DATA A:QTRLY DATA(ORG=OBS) / DATE RER TWM TWCPI M1 CPI DEF NGDP SET RER1 = RER(T-1) SET M = 100*M1(T)/CPI(T) SET MSTAR = 100*TWM(T)/TWCPI(T) SET D = 100*DEF(T)/NGDP(T) AR1(METHOD=HILU) RER 71:1 91:4 # CONSTANT RER1 M MSTAR D TABLE 4 CAL 55 ALL 0 92:1 OPEN DATA A:ANNUAL DATA(ORG=OBS) / YEAR RER TWM TWCPI M1 CPI DEF NGDP RER12 DATA(ORG=OBS) / FD NW RGDP VARIABLES: FD - NOMINAL FEDERAL DEBT NW - NOMINAL NET WORTH (BOHN (1992)) RGDP - REAL GDP SET DRER = RER(T)-RER(T-1) SET RER1 = RER(T-1) SET DRER1 = RER1(T)-RER1(T-1) SET DMP = 100*(M1(T)-M1(T-1))/CPI(T-1) SET D = 100*DEF(T)/NGDP(T) SET DD = D(T)-D(T-1) SET M = 100*M1(T)/CPI(T) SET INFTAX = ((CPI(T)-CPI(T-1))/CPI(T-1))*100*M1(T)/CPI(T-1) SET RDEBT = FD(T)/CPI(T) SET DDEBT = RDEBT(T)-RDEBT(T-1) SET RNW = 100*NW(T)/CPI(T) SET DNW = RNW(T)-RNW(T-1) SET DRGDP = RGDP(T)-RGDP(T-1) AR1(METHOD=HILU) DRER 71:1 90:1 (COLUMN 1) # CONSTANT DRER1 DMP DD INFTAX DDEBT DRGDP AR1(METHOD=HILU) DRER 71:1 89:1 RESIDS2 (COLUMN 2) # CONSTANT DRER1 DMP DD INFTAX DNW DRGDP SET PRDRER = DRER(T)-RESIDS2(T) (PREDICTED SERIES FOR FIGURE 4) PRINT / DRER PRDRER DATA SET 'ANNUAL' YEAR RER TWM TWCPI M1 CPI DEF GDP RER12 1955 NA NA NA 134.8 NA NA NA NA 1956 NA NA NA 133.5 NA NA NA NA 1957 NA NA NA 132.5 NA NA NA NA 1958 NA NA NA 137.7 NA NA NA NA 1959 NA NA NA 140 25.6 46.4 494.2 NA 1960 139.8 7.420309 21 140.7 26 45.3 513.4 139.7 1961 137 8.23617 21.5 145.7 26.3 47.9 531.8 135.1 1962 133.8 8.99954 22.3 147.9 26.6 52.1 571.6 132.5 1963 130.4 10.1572 23.2 153.4 26.9 51.5 603.1 129.5 1964 127.6 11.32375 24 160.4 27.3 50.4 648 126.2 1965 124.4 12.67701 25.1 167.9 27.8 51 702.7 123.2 1966 123.5 13.98301 26.1 172.1 28.5 62 769.8 123.5 1967 123.6 15.56056 26.8 183.3 29.4 73.4 814.3 125.7 1968 127 17.45669 27.6 197.5 30.6 79.1 889.3 127.5 1969 128.8 19.28427 28.8 204 32.3 78.9 959.5 129.4 1970 128.4 21.32485 30.3 214.5 34.2 76.8 1010.3 128.4 1971 123.1 24.51348 32.1 228.4 35.6 74.1 1096.8 116.4 1972 111.1 28.94827 33.9 249.3 36.8 77.4 1206.5 110.6 1973 98.9 33.1611 36.8 262.9 39.1 77.5 1349 100.5 1974 99.4 36.66641 41.7 274.4 43.4 82.6 1457.9 96.1 1975 94.1 41.13518 46.7 287.6 47.4 89.6 1584.8 98 1976 97.6 45.73535 51 306.4 50.1 93.4 1767.1 95.6 1977 93.3 50.73678 55.5 331.3 53.4 100.9 1974.1 88.6 1978 84.4 57.12348 59 358.5 57.4 108.9 2232.7 82 1979 83.2 62.27343 63.4 382.9 63.9 121.9 2488.6 82.9 1980 84.9 67.28232 70.1 408.9 72.5 142.7 2708 89.2 1981 100.9 75.75129 76.9 436.5 80 167.5 3030.6 102.4 1982 111.8 81.36378 83.1 474.5 85 193.8 3149.6 112.8 1983 117.4 86.12143 87.8 521.2 87.7 214.4 3405 123.9 1984 128.8 92.3046 92.1 552.1 91.5 233.1 3777.2 138.6 1985 132.4 100.01 96.1 620.1 94.7 258.6 4038.7 116.9 1986 103.7 109.2495 98 724.7 96.5 276.7 4268.6 96.9 1987 90.2 119.0296 100 750.4 100 292.1 4539.9 81.5 1988 88.2 130.6692 102.6 787.5 104.1 295.6 4900.4 89 1989 94.4 142.8225 106.6 794.8 109.1 300 5250.8 89.9 1990 86 159.2409 111.3 825.5 115.1 313.4 5522.2 81.5 1991 86.5 168.3566 NA 898.1 119.9 323.4 5677.5 NA 1992 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA FD NW RGDP NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 208657 2.5 1931.3 210317 -6 1973.2 211104 -7 2025.6 218347 -16.9 2129.8 221951 -20.6 2218 222055 -26.5 2343.3 221678 -27.3 2473.5 221545 -30.3 2622.3 219907 -39.5 2690.3 237315 -46 2801 224013 -44.5 2877.1 225484 -92.6 2875.8 237519 -126 2965.1 250951 -160 3107.1 265729 -157.3 3268.6 263051 -100.9 3248.1 309707 -188.9 3221.7 382690 -248.7 3380.8 444099 -258.7 3533.2 491645 -240.4 3703.5 524167 -133.9 3796.8 588445 -41.8 3776.3 660325 -9.7 3843.1 784741 -182.4 3760.3 975522 -360 3906.6 1144829 -568.8 4148.5 1329556 -819.1 4279.8 1545308 -1210.5 4404.5 1676094 -1229.4 4540 1821034 -1474.9 4718.6 1970236 -1681.6 4838 2176021 NA 4877.5 NA NA 4821 NA NA 4917.42 DATA SET 'QTRLY' YEAR.Q RER TWM TWCPI M1 CPI DEF GDP 1959.1 NA NA NA 139.8 NA 46.9 483.5 1959.2 NA NA NA 141.2 NA 46.3 496.2 1959.3 NA NA NA 141 NA 46.3 496.4 1959.4 NA NA NA 140 NA 45.9 500.5 1960.1 NA NA NA 139.8 NA 44.7 514 1960.2 NA NA NA 139.6 NA 44.6 512.9 1960.3 NA NA NA 141.2 NA 45.6 515.8 1960.4 NA NA NA 140.7 NA 46.2 510.8 1961.1 137.64 NA NA 141.9 68.82 46.9 515.1 1961.2 136.53 NA 59.88 142.9 68.82 47.6 525.9 1961.3 136.84 NA 60.34 143.8 69.28 47.8 536.6 1961.4 135.11 NA 61.14 145.2 69.28 49.4 549.5 1962.1 134.36 NA 61.73 146 69.52 51.9 561.9 1962.2 133.2 NA 62.64 146.6 69.75 52.3 569.4 1962.3 134.21 NA 62.51 146.3 70.21 52.1 576.2 1962.4 132.51 NA 63.28 147.9 70.21 52 578.9 1963.1 130.52 NA 64.5 149.2 70.44 51.3 588.1 1963.2 130.09 NA 64.99 150.5 70.67 51.6 596.7 1963.3 130.16 NA 65.18 152 70.9 51.4 609.4 1963.4 129.55 NA 65.9 153.4 71.36 51.6 618.3 1964.1 128.59 NA 66.38 154.5 71.36 51.2 634.8 1964.2 127.87 NA 67.01 155.7 71.59 50.9 643.6 1964.3 126.94 NA 67.66 158.8 71.82 50.3 654.1 1964.4 126.18 NA 68.18 160.4 72.06 49.4 659.7 1965.1 125.22 NA 69.02 161.5 72.29 48.6 679.8 1965.2 124.79 NA 70.06 162.3 72.98 49.7 691.9 1965.3 123.9 NA 70.56 164.9 72.98 50.9 708.3 1965.4 123.25 NA 71.3 167.9 73.44 54.7 730.7 1966.1 123.25 NA 72.11 170.5 74.13 56.8 753.1 1966.2 123.06 NA 72.88 171.6 74.83 60.1 762.2 1966.3 123.87 NA 73.07 172 75.52 64.4 775.3 1966.4 123.45 NA 73.82 172.1 75.98 66.8 788.5 1967.1 123.03 NA 74.22 174.9 76.21 71.3 797.7 1967.2 123.47 NA 74.54 177.1 76.91 72.4 803.8 1967.3 123.75 NA 75.09 180.7 77.6 74.5 820.5 1967.4 125.72 NA 75.85 183.3 78.29 75.5 835.3 1968.1 126.19 NA 76.59 185.5 79.21 78.3 859.6 1968.2 127.25 NA 76.97 189.5 80.14 79.4 883.7 1968.3 127.78 NA 77.38 192.8 81.06 79.1 900.3 1968.4 127.46 NA 78.46 197.5 81.99 79.8 913.7 1969.1 127.96 NA 79.69 200.1 83.37 77.8 937.3 1969.2 128.54 NA 80.46 201.4 84.53 78.2 951.1 1969.3 130.85 NA 81.09 202.2 85.68 79.9 970.7 1969.4 129.39 NA 81.93 204 87.07 79.9 978.8 1970.1 128.4 20.66867 83.57 205.8 88.22 78.8 989.5 1970.2 128.55 21.63195 84.35 207.6 89.61 76 1003.4 1970.3 128.44 22.04403 85.04 211 90.53 76.1 1022.4 1970.4 128.39 23.54616 86.39 214.5 91.92 76.2 1026.1 1971.1 126.07 23.0807 88.08 218.9 92.38 75.6 1069.4 1971.2 125.02 24.33628 89.48 223.6 93.76 73.8 1087.8 1971.3 120.35 25.27133 90.66 226.6 94.23 72.9 1108 1971.4 116.36 26.95813 91.6 228.4 94.92 74 1122 1972.1 111.36 26.9731 93.01 234.4 95.61 78.3 1160.5 1972.2 110.49 28.83475 94.36 236.8 96.3 78.6 1192.1 1972.3 110.43 29.56163 96.03 243.2 97.23 76.1 1217.3 1972.4 110.55 31.79022 97.73 249.3 98.15 76.7 1256.2 1973.1 100.12 31.55738 100 251.7 100 78 1303.8 1973.2 96.08 32.31133 102.5 256.8 102.08 77.6 1333.9 1973.3 94.97 32.59827 104.53 257.9 104.39 75.8 1357.8 1973.4 100.51 35.11662 107.71 262.9 106.7 78.5 1400.7 1974.1 99.97 34.51288 112.15 266.8 110.39 79.1 1410.4 1974.2 97.67 36.16508 115.87 268.6 113.16 82 1443.5 1974.3 100.85 36.94224 119.23 271.2 116.86 82.9 1473.9 1974.4 96.08 39.55097 122.96 274.4 119.86 86.5 1504 1975.1 90.5 39.01843 126.28 276.7 121.71 87.7 1512.7 1975.2 89.86 41.02118 130.53 282.7 123.79 88.3 1551.2 1975.3 97.71 42.23816 132.94 285.7 126.1 89.9 1613.3 1975.4 98.03 44.83329 135.32 287.6 128.18 92.5 1662.1 1976.1 97.68 43.99002 138.9 292.4 129.1 91.4 1716.5 1976.2 98.75 46.62915 142.16 296 131.18 92.3 1745.1 1976.3 97.08 47.11749 144.78 299.6 133.03 93.8 1778.5 1976.4 95.56 48.90593 148.07 306.4 134.41 96.2 1828.1 1977.1 95.26 48.55051 151.68 313.7 137.41 98.1 1881.7 1977.2 94.08 50.83128 155.43 318.3 140.18 100.7 1952.9 1977.3 93.41 51.85077 157.46 324.4 141.8 101.7 2015.1 1977.4 88.59 54.66952 159.15 331.3 143.42 103 2046.8 1978.1 85.63 54.89952 162 337.1 146.42 104.3 2090.2 1978.2 86.58 57.63912 164.66 345.8 150.58 108.1 2213.9 1978.3 82.5 58.73041 166.51 353.3 153.58 110.1 2274.7 1978.4 81.98 62.70186 168.71 358.4 156.35 113 2352 1979.1 82.61 61.69733 172.36 362.9 161.2 116 2399.2 1979.2 84.81 64.14817 176.22 372.8 166.97 118.5 2453.3 1979.3 82.7 64.69085 180.56 381.1 172.29 122.9 2523.3 1979.4 82.88 67.90172 184.37 382.8 177.14 130 2578.8 1980.1 87.62 66.71917 190.47 389.3 184.99 136.3 2650.1 1980.2 83.37 69.24071 195.27 388.4 190.99 139.8 2643.9 1980.3 83.15 69.77606 199.33 405.6 194 142.5 2705.3 1980.4 89.16 73.69899 203.27 408.8 199.31 152.2 2832.9 1981.1 94 71.87255 209.14 419.2 204.39 157.3 2953.5 1981.2 104.36 74.97255 214.17 424.2 209.24 165.4 2993 1981.3 106.19 75.55177 218.86 428.1 215.24 169 3079.6 1981.4 102.41 79.51289 222.92 434.6 217.09 178.1 3096.3 1982.1 108.03 77.86785 227.09 442.5 218.24 182.5 3092.9 1982.2 112.8 81.09918 232.31 447.2 224.02 190.7 3146.2 1982.3 116.05 81.68656 235.51 457.5 226.1 196.6 3164.2 1982.4 112.78 85.64844 238.18 474.4 225.4 205.5 3195.1 1983.1 113.06 85.56074 241.29 490.1 226.1 206.3 3254.9 1983.2 117.44 88.16693 244.78 503.5 229.79 212.9 3367.1 1983.3 121.46 88.10141 248.32 512.9 232.56 215.8 3450.9 1983.4 123.87 91.38365 250.77 521.2 233.95 222.8 3547.3 1984.1 119.23 90.00557 254.42 531.1 236.95 227.2 3666.9 1984.2 125.12 92.50316 257.01 540.4 239.49 231 3754.6 1984.3 136.36 93.25816 259.06 544.4 242.49 231.4 3818.2 1984.4 138.58 98.758 261.77 552.2 243.19 242.9 3869.1 1985.1 146.09 96.58494 266.03 566.8 245.73 246.3 3940 1985.2 136.44 98.26279 268.93 583.6 248.5 253.5 3997.5 1985.3 129.13 99.41152 269.66 604.3 250.12 265.9 4076.9 1985.4 116.87 105.6607 271.57 619.9 252.42 268.6 4140.5 1986.1 106.94 104.968 272.56 634 251.27 264.6 4215.7 1986.2 105.05 108.4673 273.74 661.3 252.89 275.1 4232 1986.3 98.9 110.0412 274.29 687.8 254.5 288.5 4290.2 1986.4 96.89 116.3547 275.34 724.3 255.2 278.6 4336.6 1987.1 90.79 114.6521 277.07 734 258.89 283.8 4408.3 1987.2 92.37 120.0777 279.26 743.4 262.12 291.6 4494.9 1987.3 92.99 121.0145 280.73 748.5 265.59 296.9 4573.5 1987.4 81.47 126.5687 281.59 749.7 266.51 295.8 4683 1988.1 83.98 126.4164 283.56 762.4 269.05 296.7 4752.4 1988.2 91.03 132.4273 286.1 779.4 272.52 294.8 4857.2 1988.3 94.18 134.2358 288.37 783.9 276.67 294 4947.3 1988.4 88.96 141.2831 290.32 786.4 278.29 296.8 5044.6 1989.1 94.26 140.679 293.72 784.7 282.45 293.9 5139.9 1989.2 98.3 143.8965 297.97 774.3 286.61 298.5 5218.5 1989.3 94.57 145.4734 300.05 781.8 288.68 305.8 5277.3 1989.4 89.93 154.5513 302.41 793.6 291.22 301.6 5340.4 1990.1 90.85 151.5915 306.49 804.7 297.23 309.3 5422.4 1990.2 88.63 162.4514 310.01 811.5 300 312.7 5504.7 1990.3 83.69 166.5719 314.27 821.8 306.47 311.1 5570.5 1990.4 81.46 177.7975 316.33 825.4 309.01 320.6 5557.5 1991.1 NA 174.208 NA 843 NA 332.3 5589 1991.2 NA 176.8045 NA 858.4 NA 328.4 5657.6 1991.3 NA 178.3748 NA 872 NA 322.3 5709.2 1991.4 NA 186.98 NA 898.1 NA 310.7 5739.7 1992.1 NA NA NA 939 NA NA 5840.2 1992.2 NA NA NA 951.8 NA NA 5902.2