******************************************************************** * "ON THE MACROECONOMICS OF PRIVATE DEBT"...BY KEITH M. CARLSON * * JAN/FEB 1993 ST. LOUIS REVIEW... ALL SERIES ENCLOSED IN * * PARENTHESES WERE USED IN THE FIGURES * ******************************************************************** FIGURE 1 QUARTERLY DATA: 1952.1 TO 1992.3 GDP CMDPNF (CMDPNFGP) CMDHH (CMDHHGP) CMDNFB (CMDNFBGP) 343.2000 187769.0 0.547112 80302.00 0.233980 107467.0 0.313132 343.7000 194010.0 0.564475 84098.00 0.244684 109912.0 0.319791 349.6000 199377.0 0.570300 86943.00 0.248693 112434.0 0.321608 362.2000 206614.0 0.570442 91373.00 0.252272 115241.0 0.318170 369.0000 210174.0 0.569577 93601.00 0.253661 116573.0 0.315916 372.4000 216196.0 0.580548 97640.00 0.262191 118556.0 0.318357 371.8000 220458.0 0.592948 100259.0 0.269658 120199.0 0.323289 366.8000 223948.0 0.610545 103570.0 0.282361 120378.0 0.328184 366.3000 225102.0 0.614529 103599.0 0.282826 121503.0 0.331704 366.6000 229748.0 0.626699 106803.0 0.291334 122945.0 0.335366 371.2000 235001.0 0.633085 109768.0 0.295711 125233.0 0.337373 379.4000 241352.0 0.636141 114481.0 0.301742 126871.0 0.334399 392.3000 245721.0 0.626360 117504.0 0.299526 128217.0 0.326834 400.6000 255361.0 0.637446 123637.0 0.308630 131724.0 0.328817 408.9000 263569.0 0.644581 129055.0 0.315615 134514.0 0.328966 415.2000 272878.0 0.657221 134099.0 0.322974 138779.0 0.334246 417.6000 278062.0 0.665857 136545.0 0.326976 141517.0 0.338882 423.1000 287052.0 0.678450 141408.0 0.334219 145644.0 0.344231 427.8000 293584.0 0.686265 144909.0 0.338731 148675.0 0.347534 436.5000 301254.0 0.690158 149572.0 0.342662 151682.0 0.347496 444.9000 304891.0 0.685302 150790.0 0.338930 154101.0 0.346372 446.6000 313303.0 0.701529 155212.0 0.347541 158091.0 0.353988 453.9000 318914.0 0.702609 158304.0 0.348764 160610.0 0.353844 449.0000 325356.0 0.724624 161743.0 0.360229 163613.0 0.364394 441.6000 327007.0 0.740505 161363.0 0.365405 165644.0 0.375100 445.8000 332896.0 0.746738 164617.0 0.369262 168279.0 0.377476 459.1000 338083.0 0.736404 167407.0 0.364642 170676.0 0.371762 472.3000 348059.0 0.736945 172893.0 0.366066 175166.0 0.370879 483.5000 353014.0 0.730122 175327.0 0.362620 177687.0 0.367502 496.2000 365557.0 0.736713 182324.0 0.367441 183233.0 0.369272 496.4000 374343.0 0.754116 188501.0 0.379736 185842.0 0.374380 500.5000 385253.0 0.769736 195142.0 0.389894 190111.0 0.379842 514.0000 389896.0 0.758553 196170.0 0.381654 193726.0 0.376899 512.9000 400610.0 0.781068 202418.0 0.394654 198192.0 0.386414 515.8000 406561.0 0.788214 206681.0 0.400700 199880.0 0.387515 510.8000 415939.0 0.814289 211704.0 0.414456 204235.0 0.399834 515.1000 417704.0 0.810918 211614.0 0.410821 206090.0 0.400097 525.9000 427156.0 0.812238 217028.0 0.412679 210128.0 0.399559 536.6000 433765.0 0.808358 220971.0 0.411798 212794.0 0.396560 549.5000 446181.0 0.811976 227576.0 0.414151 218605.0 0.397825 561.9000 449906.0 0.800687 228661.0 0.406942 221245.0 0.393744 569.4000 463217.0 0.813518 235986.0 0.414447 227231.0 0.399071 576.2000 472136.0 0.819396 241582.0 0.419268 230554.0 0.400128 578.9000 485422.0 0.838525 248466.0 0.429204 236956.0 0.409321 588.1000 490770.0 0.834501 250448.0 0.425860 240322.0 0.408641 596.7000 505240.0 0.846724 259155.0 0.434314 246085.0 0.412410 609.4000 515289.0 0.845568 266063.0 0.436598 249226.0 0.408969 618.3000 531412.0 0.859473 274400.0 0.443798 257012.0 0.415675 634.8000 538289.0 0.847966 277828.0 0.437662 260461.0 0.410304 643.6000 554740.0 0.861933 287242.0 0.446305 267498.0 0.415628 654.1000 565653.0 0.864781 293777.0 0.449132 271876.0 0.415649 659.7000 582077.0 0.882336 302538.0 0.458599 279539.0 0.423737 679.8000 591574.0 0.870218 305471.0 0.449354 286103.0 0.420864 691.9000 610633.0 0.882545 315677.0 0.456247 294956.0 0.426299 708.3000 623381.0 0.880109 322816.0 0.455762 300565.0 0.424347 730.7000 641086.0 0.877359 331449.0 0.453605 309637.0 0.423754 753.1000 652470.0 0.866379 333877.0 0.443337 318593.0 0.423042 762.2000 673691.0 0.883877 343104.0 0.450150 330587.0 0.433727 775.3000 683486.0 0.881576 347136.0 0.447744 336350.0 0.433832 788.5000 697407.0 0.884473 353145.0 0.447869 344262.0 0.436604 797.7000 703717.0 0.882183 351888.0 0.441128 351829.0 0.441054 803.8000 721707.0 0.897869 359207.0 0.446886 362500.0 0.450983 820.5000 732478.0 0.892722 363952.0 0.443573 368526.0 0.449148 835.3000 753490.0 0.902059 373903.0 0.447627 379587.0 0.454432 859.6000 761701.0 0.886111 375094.0 0.436359 386607.0 0.449752 883.7000 784227.0 0.887436 385683.0 0.436441 398544.0 0.450995 900.3000 799094.0 0.887586 392328.0 0.435775 406766.0 0.451812 913.7000 824899.0 0.902812 404193.0 0.442369 420706.0 0.460442 937.3000 837712.0 0.893750 406337.0 0.433519 431375.0 0.460232 951.1000 865875.0 0.910393 418253.0 0.439757 447622.0 0.470636 970.7000 882717.0 0.909361 424570.0 0.437385 458147.0 0.471976 978.8000 905430.0 0.925041 434486.0 0.443897 470944.0 0.481144 989.7000 912446.0 0.921942 433467.0 0.437978 478979.0 0.483964 1003.800 937242.0 0.933694 441155.0 0.439485 496087.0 0.494209 1022.800 953389.0 0.932136 446852.0 0.436891 506537.0 0.495245 1026.400 973056.0 0.948028 455061.0 0.443356 517995.0 0.504672 1069.800 986147.0 0.921805 457469.0 0.427621 528678.0 0.494184 1088.200 1016784. 0.934372 471714.0 0.433481 545070.0 0.500891 1108.400 1040167. 0.938440 483090.0 0.435844 557077.0 0.502596 1122.300 1067544. 0.951211 498308.0 0.444006 569236.0 0.507205 1160.900 1086068. 0.935540 502917.0 0.433213 583151.0 0.502327 1192.500 1124885. 0.943300 521897.0 0.437649 602988.0 0.505650 1217.700 1152590. 0.946530 537337.0 0.441272 615253.0 0.505258 1256.800 1194688. 0.950579 556137.0 0.442502 638551.0 0.508077 1304.400 1230660. 0.943468 568365.0 0.435729 662295.0 0.507739 1334.500 1280107. 0.959241 590295.0 0.442334 689812.0 0.516907 1358.400 1319870. 0.971636 609117.0 0.448408 710753.0 0.523228 1401.200 1358100. 0.969241 626846.0 0.447364 731254.0 0.521877 1410.900 1384027. 0.980953 630867.0 0.447138 753160.0 0.533815 1444.100 1434762. 0.993534 650141.0 0.450205 784621.0 0.543329 1474.700 1470717. 0.997299 664202.0 0.450398 806515.0 0.546901 1504.800 1502909. 0.998743 674062.0 0.447941 828847.0 0.550802 1513.600 1510132. 0.997709 671582.0 0.443698 838550.0 0.554010 1552.100 1535688. 0.989426 684592.0 0.441075 851096.0 0.548351 1614.400 1556802. 0.964322 699341.0 0.433189 857461.0 0.531133 1663.300 1590313. 0.956119 719892.0 0.432809 870421.0 0.523310 1717.800 1609181. 0.936769 728695.0 0.424202 880486.0 0.512566 1746.400 1656001. 0.948237 754969.0 0.432300 901032.0 0.515937 1779.900 1696433. 0.953106 780177.0 0.438326 916256.0 0.514779 1829.600 1747268. 0.955000 808530.0 0.441916 938738.0 0.513084 1881.700 1790582. 0.951577 825635.0 0.438771 964947.0 0.512806 1952.900 1860369. 0.952619 865735.0 0.443307 994634.0 0.509311 2015.100 1924022. 0.954802 906482.0 0.449845 1017540. 0.504958 2046.800 1997593. 0.975959 945281.0 0.461834 1052312. 0.514125 2090.200 2048192. 0.979902 964947.0 0.461653 1083245. 0.518249 2213.900 2136311. 0.964954 1012520. 0.457347 1123791. 0.507607 2274.700 2210465. 0.971761 1060103. 0.466041 1150362. 0.505720 2352.000 2293093. 0.974954 1107023. 0.470673 1186070. 0.504281 2399.200 2357666. 0.982688 1134159. 0.472724 1223507. 0.509965 2453.300 2454030. 1.000298 1181192. 0.481471 1272838. 0.518827 2523.300 2542936. 1.007782 1230947. 0.487832 1311989. 0.519950 2578.800 2621668. 1.016623 1272141. 0.493307 1349527. 0.523316 2650.100 2683914. 1.012759 1291449. 0.487321 1392465. 0.525439 2643.900 2749183. 1.039821 1331131. 0.503473 1418052. 0.536349 2705.300 2810654. 1.038944 1365936. 0.504911 1444718. 0.534032 2832.900 2890073. 1.020182 1405811. 0.496244 1484262. 0.523937 2953.500 2937266. 0.994503 1420605. 0.480990 1516661. 0.513513 2993.000 3028900. 1.011995 1458316. 0.487242 1570584. 0.524752 3079.600 3110002. 1.009872 1492686. 0.484701 1617316. 0.525171 3096.300 3171660. 1.024339 1521659. 0.491444 1650001. 0.532894 3092.900 3212748. 1.038749 1527968. 0.494024 1684780. 0.544725 3146.200 3282390. 1.043287 1552917. 0.493585 1729473. 0.549702 3164.200 3331855. 1.052985 1571216. 0.496560 1760639. 0.556425 3195.100 3375758. 1.056542 1600319. 0.500867 1775439. 0.555676 3254.900 3417873. 1.050070 1598202. 0.491014 1819671. 0.559056 3367.100 3499939. 1.039452 1646722. 0.489062 1853217. 0.550390 3450.900 3597792. 1.042566 1705086. 0.494099 1892706. 0.548467 3547.300 3712165. 1.046476 1765985. 0.497839 1946180. 0.548637 3666.900 3810808. 1.039245 1795160. 0.489558 2015648. 0.549687 3754.600 3963519. 1.055643 1864858. 0.496686 2098661. 0.558957 3818.200 4084333. 1.069701 1921864. 0.503343 2162469. 0.566358 3869.100 4242846. 1.096598 1993339. 0.515194 2249507. 0.581403 3940.000 4334116. 1.100029 2028379. 0.514817 2305737. 0.585212 3997.500 4466580. 1.117343 2097482. 0.524698 2369098. 0.592645 4076.900 4598606. 1.127966 2176914. 0.533963 2421692. 0.594003 4140.500 4783229. 1.155230 2270996. 0.548483 2512233. 0.606746 4215.700 4883679. 1.158450 2307064. 0.547255 2576615. 0.611195 4232.000 5035715. 1.189914 2389476. 0.564621 2646239. 0.625293 4290.200 5194242. 1.210723 2491378. 0.580714 2702864. 0.630009 4336.600 5390298. 1.242978 2584010. 0.595861 2806288. 0.647117 4408.300 5459374. 1.238431 2595069. 0.588678 2864305. 0.649753 4494.900 5619540. 1.250204 2698785. 0.600410 2920755. 0.649793 4573.500 5736201. 1.254226 2773980. 0.606533 2962221. 0.647692 4683.000 5895841. 1.258988 2861275. 0.610992 3034566. 0.647996 4752.400 5987300. 1.259848 2892878. 0.608719 3094422. 0.651128 4857.200 6173266. 1.270952 3003760. 0.618414 3169506. 0.652538 4947.300 6292247. 1.271855 3084557. 0.623483 3207690. 0.648372 5044.600 6458903. 1.280360 3177312. 0.629844 3281591. 0.650516 5150.000 6582548. 1.278165 3230476. 0.627277 3352072. 0.650888 5229.500 6742792. 1.289376 3313909. 0.633695 3428883. 0.655681 5278.900 6873009. 1.301978 3410535. 0.646069 3462474. 0.655908 5344.800 7020188. 1.313461 3508178. 0.656372 3512010. 0.657089 5445.200 7138309. 1.310936 3590802. 0.659443 3547507. 0.651492 5522.600 7249642. 1.312723 3662650. 0.663211 3586992. 0.649511 5559.600 7331147. 1.318646 3727452. 0.670453 3603695. 0.648193 5561.300 7398614. 1.330375 3780605. 0.679806 3618009. 0.650569 5585.800 7413470. 1.327199 3788256. 0.678194 3625214. 0.649005 5657.600 7489809. 1.323849 3848341. 0.680207 3641468. 0.643642 5713.100 7503912. 1.313457 3888661. 0.680657 3615251. 0.632800 5753.300 7531943. 1.309152 3938620. 0.684584 3593323. 0.624567 5840.200 7565713. 1.295454 3960822. 0.678200 3604891. 0.617255 FIGURE 2 QUARTERLY DATA: 1952.1 TO 1992.3 (GDP4) REPRESENTS 4-QUARTER RATE OF CHANGE(%) (CMDPNF4) REPRESENTS 4-QUARTER RATE OF CHANGE(%) GDP (GDP4) CMDPNF (CMDPNF4) 343.2000 . 187769.0 . 343.7000 . 194010.0 . 349.6000 . 199377.0 . 362.2000 . 206614.0 . 369.0000 7.517478 210174.0 11.93221 372.4000 8.350300 216196.0 11.43549 371.8000 6.350109 220458.0 10.57344 366.8000 1.270010 223948.0 8.389557 366.3000 -0.731711 225102.0 7.102686 366.6000 -1.557462 229748.0 6.268386 371.2000 -0.161371 235001.0 6.596721 379.4000 3.435116 241352.0 7.771447 392.3000 7.098007 245721.0 9.159847 400.6000 9.274413 255361.0 11.14830 408.9000 10.15624 263569.0 12.15654 415.2000 9.435957 272878.0 13.06225 417.6000 6.449151 278062.0 13.16168 423.1000 5.616575 287052.0 12.41027 427.8000 4.622156 293584.0 11.38791 436.5000 5.130055 301254.0 10.39879 444.9000 6.537354 304891.0 9.648567 446.6000 5.554243 313303.0 9.145033 453.9000 6.100983 318914.0 8.627854 449.0000 2.863688 325356.0 8.000558 441.6000 -0.741737 327007.0 7.253740 445.8000 -0.179135 332896.0 6.253691 459.1000 1.145630 338083.0 6.010711 472.3000 5.189307 348059.0 6.977895 483.5000 9.488223 353014.0 7.953041 496.2000 11.30552 365557.0 9.811172 496.4000 8.124589 374343.0 10.72518 500.5000 5.970784 385253.0 10.68612 514.0000 6.308169 389896.0 10.44774 512.9000 3.365581 400610.0 9.588928 515.8000 3.908137 406561.0 8.606545 510.8000 2.057940 415939.0 7.965156 515.1000 0.214003 417704.0 7.132158 525.9000 2.534607 427156.0 6.626395 536.6000 4.032568 433765.0 6.691247 549.5000 7.576354 446181.0 7.270778 561.9000 9.085625 449906.0 7.709287 569.4000 8.271534 463217.0 8.442115 576.2000 7.379806 472136.0 8.846034 578.9000 5.350323 485422.0 8.794861 588.1000 4.662743 490770.0 9.082787 596.7000 4.794518 505240.0 9.071990 609.4000 5.761890 515289.0 9.139951 618.3000 6.806005 531412.0 9.474231 634.8000 7.940829 538289.0 9.682540 643.6000 7.859890 554740.0 9.797324 654.1000 7.335075 565653.0 9.773932 659.7000 6.695783 582077.0 9.534034 679.8000 7.088847 591574.0 9.898957 691.9000 7.504669 610633.0 10.07553 708.3000 8.286197 623381.0 10.20555 730.7000 10.76247 641086.0 10.13766 753.1000 10.78258 652470.0 10.29389 762.2000 10.16043 673691.0 10.32666 775.3000 9.459269 683486.0 9.641776 788.5000 7.910221 697407.0 8.785249 797.7000 5.922194 703717.0 7.854308 803.8000 5.457882 721707.0 7.127303 820.5000 5.830003 732478.0 7.167960 835.3000 5.935318 753490.0 8.041646 859.6000 7.759805 761701.0 8.239676 883.7000 9.940287 784227.0 8.662795 900.3000 9.725776 799094.0 9.094607 913.7000 9.385853 824899.0 9.477099 937.3000 9.039089 837712.0 9.979113 951.1000 7.627018 865875.0 10.41127 970.7000 7.819619 882717.0 10.46473 978.8000 7.124874 905430.0 9.762528 989.7000 5.590528 912446.0 8.921205 1003.800 5.540954 937242.0 8.242183 1022.800 5.367258 953389.0 8.006190 1026.400 4.863101 973056.0 7.468937 1069.800 8.093366 986147.0 8.077300 1088.200 8.408046 1016784. 8.486815 1108.400 8.369186 1040167. 9.102056 1122.300 9.343338 1067544. 9.710438 1160.900 8.515608 1086068. 10.13247 1192.500 9.584641 1124885. 10.63166 1217.700 9.861054 1152590. 10.80817 1256.800 11.98432 1194688. 11.90995 1304.400 12.36110 1230660. 13.31335 1334.500 11.90776 1280107. 13.79892 1358.400 11.55458 1319870. 14.51340 1401.200 11.48949 1358100. 13.67822 1410.900 8.164673 1384027. 12.46217 1444.100 8.212812 1434762. 12.08141 1474.700 8.561538 1470717. 11.42893 1504.800 7.393670 1502909. 10.66262 1513.600 7.279038 1510132. 9.111455 1552.100 7.478706 1535688. 7.034338 1614.400 9.473119 1556802. 5.853268 1663.300 10.53296 1590313. 5.815655 1717.800 13.49102 1609181. 6.558963 1746.400 12.51853 1656001. 7.834469 1779.900 10.25149 1696433. 8.969091 1829.600 9.998192 1747268. 9.869441 1881.700 9.541267 1790582. 11.27288 1952.900 11.82432 1860369. 12.34105 2015.100 13.21422 1924022. 13.41574 2046.800 11.87145 1997593. 14.32665 2090.200 11.08041 2048192. 14.38694 2213.900 13.36473 2136311. 14.83265 2274.700 12.88273 2210465. 14.88772 2352.000 14.91108 2293093. 14.79280 2399.200 14.78327 2357666. 15.10962 2453.300 10.81350 2454030. 14.87232 2523.300 10.92892 2542936. 15.04077 2578.800 9.642859 2621668. 14.32890 2650.100 10.45766 2683914. 13.83775 2643.900 7.769121 2749183. 12.02728 2705.300 7.212777 2810654. 10.52791 2832.900 9.853415 2890073. 10.23795 2953.500 11.44862 2937266. 9.439647 2993.000 13.20398 3028900. 10.17455 3079.600 13.83580 3110002. 10.65047 3096.300 9.297898 3171660. 9.743249 3092.900 4.719820 3212748. 9.378858 3146.200 5.118608 3282390. 8.369045 3164.200 2.747105 3331855. 7.133533 3195.100 3.190907 3375758. 6.435053 3254.900 5.237803 3417873. 6.384721 3367.100 7.021173 3499939. 6.627762 3450.900 9.060740 3597792. 7.981650 3547.300 11.02313 3712165. 9.965377 3666.900 12.65784 3810808. 11.49648 3754.600 11.50842 3963519. 13.24537 3818.200 10.64360 4084333. 13.52332 3869.100 9.071690 4242846. 14.29573 3940.000 7.447711 4334116. 13.73221 3997.500 6.469395 4466580. 12.69228 4076.900 6.775443 4598606. 12.59136 4140.500 7.014548 4783229. 12.73633 4215.700 6.997467 4883679. 12.67993 4232.000 5.866167 5035715. 12.74208 4290.200 5.231924 5194242. 12.95253 4336.600 4.736145 5390298. 12.69162 4408.300 4.568627 5459374. 11.78814 4494.900 6.212191 5619540. 11.59369 4573.500 6.603417 5736201. 10.43384 4683.000 7.987822 5895841. 9.378757 4752.400 7.805733 5987300. 9.670083 4857.200 8.060253 6173266. 9.853582 4947.300 8.173167 6292247. 9.693628 5044.600 7.721548 6458903. 9.550156 5150.000 8.366302 6582548. 9.941844 5229.500 7.664906 6742792. 9.225684 5278.900 6.702648 6873009. 9.229803 5344.800 5.950912 7020188. 8.690098 5445.200 5.732043 7138309. 8.442946 5522.600 5.604744 7249642. 7.516916 5559.600 5.317400 7331147. 6.665756 5561.300 4.050666 7398614. 5.390539 5585.800 2.582083 7413470. 3.854708 5657.600 2.444501 7489809. 3.312812 5713.100 2.760990 7503912. 2.356589 5753.300 3.452430 7531943. 1.802081 5840.200 4.554413 7565713. 2.053600 FIGURE 3 QUARTERLY DATA: 1952.1 TO 1992.1 (PCEDPYMA) IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE (CMDHHYMA) IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE PCE DPY PCEDPY (PCEDPYMA) CMDHH DPY CMDHHDPY 212728.0 233280.0 0.911900 . 80302.00 233280.0 0.344230 (CMDHHYMA) . 216892.0 235944.0 0.919252 . 84098.00 235944.0 0.356432 . 219344.0 242352.0 0.905064 . 86943.00 242352.0 0.358747 . 227400.0 247604.0 0.918402 0.913654 91373.00 247604.0 0.369029 0. 357109 230880.0 251308.0 0.918713 0.915358 93601.00 251308.0 0.372455 0. 364166 232696.0 255704.0 0.910021 0.913050 97640.00 255704.0 0.381848 0. 370520 233612.0 256348.0 0.911308 0.914611 100259.0 256348.0 0.391105 0. 378609 233320.0 257060.0 0.907648 0.911923 103570.0 257060.0 0.402902 0. 387078 235516.0 258516.0 0.911031 0.910002 103599.0 258516.0 0.400745 0. 394150 238188.0 257868.0 0.923682 0.913417 106803.0 257868.0 0.414177 0. 402232 240500.0 260448.0 0.923409 0.916442 109768.0 260448.0 0.421458 0. 409821 245052.0 265556.0 0.922788 0.920227 114481.0 265556.0 0.431099 0. 416870 251068.0 269568.0 0.931372 0.925313 117504.0 269568.0 0.435897 0. 425658 256076.0 275964.0 0.927933 0.926375 123637.0 275964.0 0.448019 0. 434118 260236.0 282416.0 0.921463 0.925889 129055.0 282416.0 0.456968 0. 442996 264248.0 287136.0 0.920289 0.925264 134099.0 287136.0 0.467023 0. 451977 265824.0 290500.0 0.915057 0.921185 136545.0 290500.0 0.470034 0. 460511 268384.0 295084.0 0.909517 0.916582 141408.0 295084.0 0.479213 0. 468309 271464.0 299112.0 0.907566 0.913107 144909.0 299112.0 0.484464 0. 475183 276656.0 305472.0 0.905667 0.909452 149572.0 305472.0 0.489642 0. 480838 280940.0 308708.0 0.910051 0.908201 150790.0 308708.0 0.488455 0. 485444 283160.0 312616.0 0.905776 0.907265 155212.0 312616.0 0.496494 0. 489764 287704.0 317096.0 0.907309 0.907201 158304.0 317096.0 0.499231 0. 493455 289384.0 317456.0 0.911572 0.908677 161743.0 317456.0 0.509497 0. 498419 288968.0 318056.0 0.908544 0.908300 161363.0 318056.0 0.507342 0. 503141 291868.0 320308.0 0.911210 0.909659 164617.0 320308.0 0.513933 0. 507501 296852.0 327968.0 0.905125 0.909113 167407.0 327968.0 0.510437 0. 510302 300692.0 333212.0 0.902404 0.906821 172893.0 333212.0 0.518868 0. 512645 310500.0 339600.0 0.914311 0.908263 175327.0 339600.0 0.516275 0. 514878 316400.0 346800.0 0.912341 0.908545 182324.0 346800.0 0.525732 0. 517828 321700.0 348000.0 0.924425 0.913371 188501.0 348000.0 0.541670 0. 525636 323800.0 352400.0 0.918842 0.917480 195142.0 352400.0 0.553751 0. 534357 327300.0 356700.0 0.917578 0.918297 196170.0 356700.0 0.549958 0. 542778 333400.0 360300.0 0.925340 0.921546 202418.0 360300.0 0.561804 0. 551796 333400.0 362000.0 0.920994 0.920689 206681.0 362000.0 0.570942 0. 559114 335500.0 363200.0 0.923733 0.921911 211704.0 363200.0 0.582885 0. 566397 336400.0 366800.0 0.917121 0.921797 211614.0 366800.0 0.576919 0. 573138 341400.0 372400.0 0.916756 0.919651 217028.0 372400.0 0.582782 0. 578382 344400.0 378900.0 0.908947 0.916639 220971.0 378900.0 0.583191 0. 581444 351700.0 387000.0 0.908786 0.912902 227576.0 387000.0 0.588052 0. 582736 356200.0 391400.0 0.910066 0.911139 228661.0 391400.0 0.584213 0. 584559 362200.0 397100.0 0.912113 0.909978 235986.0 397100.0 0.594274 0. 587432 366400.0 400900.0 0.913944 0.911227 241582.0 400900.0 0.602599 0. 592284 372700.0 405200.0 0.919793 0.913979 248466.0 405200.0 0.613194 0. 598570 376300.0 409400.0 0.919150 0.916250 250448.0 409400.0 0.611744 0. 605453 380600.0 414000.0 0.919324 0.918052 259155.0 414000.0 0.625978 0. 613379 387700.0 420400.0 0.922217 0.920121 266063.0 420400.0 0.632881 0. 620949 392300.0 429500.0 0.913388 0.918520 274400.0 429500.0 0.638882 0. 627371 401700.0 439600.0 0.913785 0.917178 277828.0 439600.0 0.632002 0. 632436 409400.0 452000.0 0.905752 0.913786 287242.0 452000.0 0.635491 0. 634814 418100.0 459800.0 0.909308 0.910558 293777.0 459800.0 0.638923 0. 636325 420600.0 467200.0 0.900257 0.907276 302538.0 467200.0 0.647556 0. 638493 431200.0 473600.0 0.910473 0.906448 305471.0 473600.0 0.644998 0. 641742 438200.0 482400.0 0.908375 0.907103 315677.0 482400.0 0.654388 0. 646466 447400.0 497800.0 0.898755 0.904465 322816.0 497800.0 0.648485 0. 648857 461500.0 510200.0 0.904547 0.905537 331449.0 510200.0 0.649645 0. 649379 471800.0 518100.0 0.910635 0.905578 333877.0 518100.0 0.644426 0. 649236 476800.0 523600.0 0.910619 0.906139 343104.0 523600.0 0.655279 0. 649459 486100.0 535100.0 0.908428 0.908557 347136.0 535100.0 0.648731 0. 649520 491700.0 545900.0 0.900714 0.907599 353145.0 545900.0 0.646904 0. 648835 496600.0 555100.0 0.894614 0.903594 351888.0 555100.0 0.633918 0. 646208 506100.0 562900.0 0.899094 0.900713 359207.0 562900.0 0.638136 0. 641922 513500.0 573300.0 0.895692 0.897528 363952.0 573300.0 0.634837 0. 638449 521000.0 583300.0 0.893194 0.895648 373903.0 583300.0 0.641013 0. 636976 539000.0 599200.0 0.899533 0.896878 375094.0 599200.0 0.625991 0. 634995 552600.0 615300.0 0.898098 0.896629 385683.0 615300.0 0.626821 0. 632166 568300.0 622600.0 0.912785 0.900903 392328.0 622600.0 0.630145 0. 630993 576600.0 634100.0 0.909320 0.904934 404193.0 634100.0 0.637428 0. 630096 587900.0 639600.0 0.919168 0.909843 406337.0 639600.0 0.635299 0. 632423 598500.0 653700.0 0.915558 0.914208 418253.0 653700.0 0.639824 0. 635674 608300.0 674300.0 0.902121 0.911542 424570.0 674300.0 0.629646 0. 635549 620000.0 687600.0 0.901687 0.909633 434486.0 687600.0 0.631888 0. 634164 631000.0 697700.0 0.904400 0.905941 433467.0 697700.0 0.621280 0. 630659 641100.0 716400.0 0.894891 0.900775 441155.0 716400.0 0.615794 0. 624652 653500.0 732500.0 0.892150 0.898282 446852.0 732500.0 0.610037 0. 619750 660300.0 741400.0 0.890612 0.895513 455061.0 741400.0 0.613786 0. 615224 679600.0 761900.0 0.891981 0.892409 457469.0 761900.0 0.600432 0. 610012 693600.0 780900.0 0.888206 0.890737 471714.0 780900.0 0.604065 0. 607080 706000.0 792300.0 0.891077 0.890469 483090.0 792300.0 0.609731 0. 607003 722100.0 804200.0 0.897911 0.892294 498308.0 804200.0 0.619632 0. 608465 739200.0 816100.0 0.905771 0.895741 502917.0 816100.0 0.616244 0. 612418 757100.0 828800.0 0.913489 0.902062 521897.0 828800.0 0.629702 0. 618827 775100.0 854900.0 0.906656 0.905957 537337.0 854900.0 0.628538 0. 623529 799700.0 894000.0 0.894519 0.905109 556137.0 894000.0 0.622077 0. 624140 824000.0 918500.0 0.897115 0.902945 568365.0 918500.0 0.618797 0. 624779 838800.0 941800.0 0.890635 0.897231 590295.0 941800.0 0.626773 0. 624046 857300.0 966600.0 0.886923 0.892298 609117.0 966600.0 0.630165 0. 624453 872600.0 1005600. 0.867741 0.885603 626846.0 1005600. 0.623355 0. 624772 891000.0 1014400. 0.878352 0.880913 630867.0 1014400. 0.621911 0. 625551 919000.0 1028600. 0.893447 0.881616 650141.0 1028600. 0.632064 0. 626874 946700.0 1061000. 0.892271 0.882953 664202.0 1061000. 0.626015 0. 625836 954200.0 1082300. 0.881641 0.886428 674062.0 1082300. 0.622805 0. 625699 978900.0 1089000. 0.898898 0.891564 671582.0 1089000. 0.616696 0. 624395 1008300. 1154900. 0.873063 0.886468 684592.0 1154900. 0.592772 0. 614572 1042100. 1162800. 0.896199 0.887450 699341.0 1162800. 0.601428 0. 608425 1070300. 1196800. 0.894301 0.890615 719892.0 1196800. 0.601514 0. 603103 1104800. 1229200. 0.898796 0.890590 728695.0 1229200. 0.592821 0. 597134 1124500. 1247600. 0.901331 0.897657 754969.0 1247600. 0.605137 0. 600225 1153900. 1274700. 0.905233 0.899915 780177.0 1274700. 0.612048 0. 602880 1189100. 1304400. 0.911607 0.904242 808530.0 1304400. 0.619848 0. 607463 1225500. 1328900. 0.922191 0.910090 825635.0 1328900. 0.621292 0. 614581 1253500. 1368600. 0.915899 0.913733 865735.0 1368600. 0.632570 0. 621439 1284700. 1417700. 0.906186 0.913971 906482.0 1417700. 0.639403 0. 628278 1322400. 1449900. 0.912063 0.914085 945281.0 1449900. 0.651963 0. 636307 1351700. 1490000. 0.907181 0.910332 964947.0 1490000. 0.647615 0. 642888 1410100. 1550200. 0.909625 0.908764 1012520. 1550200. 0.653154 0. 648034 1442700. 1592000. 0.906219 0.908772 1060103. 1592000. 0.665894 0. 654657 1480300. 1638800. 0.903283 0.906577 1107023. 1638800. 0.675508 0. 660543 1520400. 1683300. 0.903226 0.905588 1134159. 1683300. 0.673771 0. 667082 1554800. 1722100. 0.902851 0.903895 1181192. 1722100. 0.685902 0. 675269 1607100. 1777800. 0.903982 0.903336 1230947. 1777800. 0.692399 0. 681895 1652500. 1828600. 0.903697 0.903439 1272141. 1828600. 0.695691 0. 686941 1701500. 1893700. 0.898506 0.902259 1291449. 1893700. 0.681971 0. 688991 1704900. 1901100. 0.896797 0.900745 1331131. 1901100. 0.700190 0. 692563 1762300. 1966100. 0.896343 0.898835 1365936. 1966100. 0.694744 0. 693149 1823600. 2051000. 0.889127 0.895193 1405811. 2051000. 0.685427 0. 690583 1876000. 2109500. 0.889310 0.892894 1420605. 2109500. 0.673432 0. 688448 1908900. 2140600. 0.891759 0.891635 1458316. 2140600. 0.681265 0. 683717 1952100. 2208500. 0.883903 0.888525 1492686. 2208500. 0.675882 0. 679002 1968000. 2239200. 0.878885 0.885965 1521659. 2239200. 0.679555 0. 677534 2005400. 2256500. 0.888721 0.885817 1527968. 2256500. 0.677141 0. 678461 2029400. 2303500. 0.881007 0.883129 1552917. 2303500. 0.674155 0. 676683 2073100. 2343500. 0.884617 0.883308 1571216. 2343500. 0.670457 0. 675327 2128700. 2374700. 0.896408 0.887688 1600319. 2374700. 0.673904 0. 673914 2162900. 2405800. 0.899036 0.890267 1598202. 2405800. 0.664312 0. 670707 2231900. 2457300. 0.908273 0.897084 1646722. 2457300. 0.670135 0. 669702 2288700. 2517600. 0.909080 0.903199 1705086. 2517600. 0.677266 0. 671404 2346800. 2594200. 0.904633 0.905256 1765985. 2594200. 0.680744 0. 673114 2392400. 2683900. 0.891389 0.903344 1795160. 2683900. 0.668862 0. 674252 2444500. 2734200. 0.894046 0.899787 1864858. 2734200. 0.682049 0. 677230 2477800. 2790900. 0.887814 0.894471 1921864. 2790900. 0.688618 0. 680068 2526400. 2829100. 0.893005 0.891563 1993339. 2829100. 0.704584 0. 686028 2589200. 2862900. 0.904398 0.894816 2028379. 2862900. 0.708505 0. 695939 2636400. 2950900. 0.893422 0.894660 2097482. 2950900. 0.710794 0. 703125 2704200. 2950200. 0.916616 0.901860 2176914. 2950200. 0.737887 0. 715443 2739800. 3007900. 0.910868 0.906326 2270996. 3007900. 0.755010 0. 728049 2784800. 3075500. 0.905479 0.906596 2307064. 3075500. 0.750143 0. 738459 2812300. 3130500. 0.898355 0.907829 2389476. 3130500. 0.763289 0. 751582 2882000. 3150600. 0.914746 0.907362 2491378. 3150600. 0.790763 0. 764801 2923100. 3169300. 0.922317 0.910224 2584010. 3169300. 0.815325 0. 779880 2962800. 3241900. 0.913908 0.912332 2595069. 3241900. 0.800478 0. 792464 3030100. 3224000. 0.939857 0.922707 2698785. 3224000. 0.837092 0. 810915 3091400. 3302400. 0.936107 0.928048 2773980. 3302400. 0.839989 0. 823221 3124600. 3389900. 0.921738 0.927903 2861275. 3389900. 0.844059 0. 830404 3199100. 3456800. 0.925451 0.930788 2892878. 3456800. 0.836866 0. 839502 3260500. 3507500. 0.929579 0.928219 3003760. 3507500. 0.856382 0. 844324 3326600. 3575200. 0.930465 0.926809 3084557. 3575200. 0.862765 0. 850018 3398200. 3653200. 0.930198 0.928924 3177312. 3653200. 0.869734 0. 856437 3440800. 3730000. 0.922467 0.928177 3230476. 3730000. 0.866079 0. 863740 3499100. 3758300. 0.931033 0.928541 3313909. 3758300. 0.881757 0. 870084 3553300. 3795400. 0.936212 0.929977 3410535. 3795400. 0.898597 0. 879042 3599100. 3864300. 0.931372 0.930271 3508178. 3864300. 0.907843 0. 888569 3672400. 3962200. 0.926859 0.931369 3590802. 3962200. 0.906265 0. 898616 3715300. 4015900. 0.925148 0.929898 3662650. 4015900. 0.912037 0. 906186 3787800. 4065300. 0.931739 0.928779 3727452. 4065300. 0.916895 0. 910760 3818200. 4128100. 0.924929 0.927169 3780605. 4128100. 0.915822 0. 912755 3821700. 4136000. 0.924009 0.926456 3788256. 4136000. 0.915923 0. 915169 3871900. 4189700. 0.924147 0.926206 3848341. 4189700. 0.918524 0. 916791 3914200. 4227600. 0.925868 0.924738 3888661. 4227600. 0.919827 0. 917524 3942900. 4284900. 0.920185 0.923552 3938620. 4284900. 0.919186 0. 918365 4022800. 4361000. 0.922449 0.923162 3960822. 4361000. 0.908237 0. 916444 FIGURE 4 QUARTERLY DATA: 1952.1 TO 1992.1 CMDHHDPY IS CONS. INCOME RATIO CMDHHYMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE DRCIC IS D.R. CONS. INST. CREDIT DRCICMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE DRM IS D.R. MORTGAGE CREDIT DRMMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE CMDHH DPY CMDHHDPY (CMDHHYMA) DRCIC (DRCICMA) DRM 80302.00 233280.0 0.344230 . 1.570000 . . (DRMMA) . 84098.00 235944.0 0.356432 . 1.770000 . . . 86943.00 242352.0 0.358747 . 1.870000 . . . 91373.00 247604.0 0.369029 0.357109 1.730000 1.735000 . . 93601.00 251308.0 0.372455 0.364166 1.680000 1.762500 . . 97640.00 255704.0 0.381848 0.370520 1.750000 1.757500 . . 100259.0 256348.0 0.391105 0.378609 1.880000 1.760000 0.340000 . 103570.0 257060.0 0.402902 0.387078 1.890000 1.800000 0.340000 . 103599.0 258516.0 0.400745 0.394150 2.040000 1.890000 0.360000 . 106803.0 257868.0 0.414177 0.402232 1.870000 1.920000 0.370000 0. 352500 109768.0 260448.0 0.421458 0.409821 1.780000 1.895000 0.370000 0. 360000 114481.0 265556.0 0.431099 0.416870 1.690000 1.845000 0.360000 0. 365000 117504.0 269568.0 0.435897 0.425658 1.630000 1.742500 0.310000 0. 352500 123637.0 275964.0 0.448019 0.434118 1.520000 1.655000 0.300000 0. 335000 129055.0 282416.0 0.456968 0.442996 1.460000 1.575000 0.290000 0. 315000 134099.0 287136.0 0.467023 0.451977 1.500000 1.527500 0.300000 0. 300000 136545.0 290500.0 0.470034 0.460511 1.410000 1.472500 0.320000 0. 302500 141408.0 295084.0 0.479213 0.468309 1.510000 1.470000 0.330000 0. 310000 144909.0 299112.0 0.484464 0.475183 1.520000 1.485000 0.330000 0. 320000 149572.0 305472.0 0.489642 0.480838 1.500000 1.485000 0.320000 0. 325000 150790.0 308708.0 0.488455 0.485444 1.500000 1.507500 0.300000 0. 320000 155212.0 312616.0 0.496494 0.489764 1.520000 1.510000 0.290000 0. 310000 158304.0 317096.0 0.499231 0.493455 1.470000 1.497500 0.300000 0. 302500 161743.0 317456.0 0.509497 0.498419 1.560000 1.512500 0.310000 0. 300000 161363.0 318056.0 0.507342 0.503141 1.640000 1.547500 0.350000 0. 312500 164617.0 320308.0 0.513933 0.507501 1.710000 1.595000 0.360000 0. 330000 167407.0 327968.0 0.510437 0.510302 1.750000 1.665000 0.360000 0. 345000 172893.0 333212.0 0.518868 0.512645 1.520000 1.655000 0.380000 0. 362500 175327.0 339600.0 0.516275 0.514878 1.510000 1.622500 0.340000 0. 360000 182324.0 346800.0 0.525732 0.517828 1.400000 1.545000 0.330000 0. 352500 188501.0 348000.0 0.541670 0.525636 1.470000 1.475000 0.360000 0. 352500 195142.0 352400.0 0.553751 0.534357 1.610000 1.497500 0.320000 0. 337500 196170.0 356700.0 0.549958 0.542778 1.560000 1.510000 0.340000 0. 337500 202418.0 360300.0 0.561804 0.551796 1.620000 1.565000 0.370000 0. 347500 206681.0 362000.0 0.570942 0.559114 1.650000 1.610000 0.380000 0. 352500 211704.0 363200.0 0.582885 0.566397 1.750000 1.645000 0.430000 0. 380000 211614.0 366800.0 0.576919 0.573138 1.800000 1.705000 0.450000 0. 407500 217028.0 372400.0 0.582782 0.578382 1.750000 1.737500 0.450000 0. 427500 220971.0 378900.0 0.583191 0.581444 1.690000 1.747500 0.480000 0. 452500 227576.0 387000.0 0.588052 0.582736 1.630000 1.717500 0.480000 0. 465000 228661.0 391400.0 0.584213 0.584559 1.610000 1.670000 0.460000 0. 467500 235986.0 397100.0 0.594274 0.587432 1.540000 1.617500 0.460000 0. 470000 241582.0 400900.0 0.602599 0.592284 1.550000 1.582500 0.480000 0. 470000 248466.0 405200.0 0.613194 0.598570 1.570000 1.567500 0.480000 0. 470000 250448.0 409400.0 0.611744 0.605453 1.560000 1.555000 0.530000 0. 487500 259155.0 414000.0 0.625978 0.613379 1.590000 1.567500 0.550000 0. 510000 266063.0 420400.0 0.632881 0.620949 1.660000 1.595000 0.570000 0. 532500 274400.0 429500.0 0.638882 0.627371 1.650000 1.615000 0.570000 0. 555000 277828.0 439600.0 0.632002 0.632436 1.600000 1.625000 0.540000 0. 557500 287242.0 452000.0 0.635491 0.634814 1.510000 1.605000 0.520000 0. 550000 293777.0 459800.0 0.638923 0.636325 1.670000 1.607500 0.520000 0. 537500 302538.0 467200.0 0.647556 0.638493 1.650000 1.607500 0.530000 0. 527500 305471.0 473600.0 0.644998 0.641742 1.660000 1.622500 0.520000 0. 522500 315677.0 482400.0 0.654388 0.646466 1.600000 1.645000 0.570000 0. 535000 322816.0 497800.0 0.648485 0.648857 1.740000 1.662500 0.550000 0. 542500 331449.0 510200.0 0.649645 0.649379 1.700000 1.675000 0.520000 0. 540000 333877.0 518100.0 0.644426 0.649236 1.680000 1.680000 0.530000 0. 542500 343104.0 523600.0 0.655279 0.649459 1.670000 1.697500 0.540000 0. 535000 347136.0 535100.0 0.648731 0.649520 1.730000 1.695000 0.510000 0. 525000 353145.0 545900.0 0.646904 0.648835 1.750000 1.707500 0.510000 0. 522500 351888.0 555100.0 0.633918 0.646208 1.780000 1.732500 0.540000 0. 525000 359207.0 562900.0 0.638136 0.641922 1.690000 1.737500 0.500000 0. 515000 363952.0 573300.0 0.634837 0.638449 1.600000 1.705000 0.520000 0. 517500 373903.0 583300.0 0.641013 0.636976 1.700000 1.692500 0.510000 0. 517500 375094.0 599200.0 0.625991 0.634995 1.400000 1.597500 0.480000 0. 502500 385683.0 615300.0 0.626821 0.632166 1.500000 1.550000 0.490000 0. 500000 392328.0 622600.0 0.630145 0.630993 1.560000 1.540000 0.480000 0. 490000 404193.0 634100.0 0.637428 0.630096 1.590000 1.512500 0.470000 0. 480000 406337.0 639600.0 0.635299 0.632423 1.470000 1.530000 0.480000 0. 480000 418253.0 653700.0 0.639824 0.635674 1.590000 1.552500 0.460000 0. 472500 424570.0 674300.0 0.629646 0.635549 1.710000 1.590000 0.470000 0. 470000 434486.0 687600.0 0.631888 0.634164 1.810000 1.645000 0.480000 0. 472500 433467.0 697700.0 0.621280 0.630659 1.720000 1.707500 0.530000 0. 485000 441155.0 716400.0 0.615794 0.624652 1.760000 1.750000 0.510000 0. 497500 446852.0 732500.0 0.610037 0.619750 1.920000 1.802500 0.520000 0. 510000 455061.0 741400.0 0.613786 0.615224 1.960000 1.840000 0.550000 0. 527500 457469.0 761900.0 0.600432 0.610012 1.710000 1.837500 0.570000 0. 537500 471714.0 780900.0 0.604065 0.607080 1.720000 1.827500 0.600000 0. 560000 483090.0 792300.0 0.609731 0.607003 1.790000 1.795000 0.600000 0. 580000 498308.0 804200.0 0.619632 0.608465 1.840000 1.765000 0.590000 0. 590000 502917.0 816100.0 0.616244 0.612418 1.680000 1.757500 0.580000 0. 592500 521897.0 828800.0 0.629702 0.618827 1.760000 1.767500 0.600000 0. 592500 537337.0 854900.0 0.628538 0.623529 1.960000 1.810000 0.630000 0. 600000 556137.0 894000.0 0.622077 0.624140 2.020000 1.855000 0.720000 0. 632500 568365.0 918500.0 0.618797 0.624779 1.900000 1.910000 0.680000 0. 657500 590295.0 941800.0 0.626773 0.624046 1.940000 1.955000 0.720000 0. 687500 609117.0 966600.0 0.630165 0.624453 2.050000 1.977500 0.760000 0. 720000 626846.0 1005600. 0.623355 0.624772 2.310000 2.050000 0.720000 0. 720000 630867.0 1014400. 0.621911 0.625551 2.410000 2.177500 0.770000 0. 742500 650141.0 1028600. 0.632064 0.626874 2.530000 2.325000 0.750000 0. 750000 664202.0 1061000. 0.626015 0.625836 2.660000 2.477500 0.750000 0. 747500 674062.0 1082300. 0.622805 0.625699 2.730000 2.582500 0.780000 0. 762500 671582.0 1089000. 0.616696 0.624395 2.750000 2.667500 0.820000 0. 775000 684592.0 1154900. 0.592772 0.614572 2.670000 2.702500 0.780000 0. 782500 699341.0 1162800. 0.601428 0.608425 2.610000 2.690000 0.780000 0. 790000 719892.0 1196800. 0.601514 0.603103 2.410000 2.610000 0.760000 0. 785000 728695.0 1229200. 0.592821 0.597134 2.470000 2.540000 0.730000 0. 762500 754969.0 1247600. 0.605137 0.600225 2.380000 2.467500 0.800000 0. 767500 780177.0 1274700. 0.612048 0.602880 2.380000 2.410000 0.780000 0. 767500 808530.0 1304400. 0.619848 0.607463 2.370000 2.400000 0.790000 0. 775000 825635.0 1328900. 0.621292 0.614581 2.370000 2.375000 0.760000 0. 782500 865735.0 1368600. 0.632570 0.621439 2.400000 2.380000 0.780000 0. 777500 906482.0 1417700. 0.639403 0.628278 2.370000 2.377500 0.750000 0. 770000 945281.0 1449900. 0.651963 0.636307 2.340000 2.370000 0.760000 0. 762500 964947.0 1490000. 0.647615 0.642888 2.470000 2.395000 0.780000 0. 767500 1012520. 1550200. 0.653154 0.648034 2.390000 2.392500 0.760000 0. 762500 1060103. 1592000. 0.665894 0.654657 2.400000 2.400000 0.760000 0. 765000 1107023. 1638800. 0.675508 0.660543 2.380000 2.410000 0.760000 0. 765000 1134159. 1683300. 0.673771 0.667082 2.250000 2.355000 0.730000 0. 752500 1181192. 1722100. 0.685902 0.675269 2.420000 2.362500 0.730000 0. 745000 1230947. 1777800. 0.692399 0.681895 2.500000 2.387500 0.780000 0. 750000 1272141. 1828600. 0.695691 0.686941 2.530000 2.425000 0.790000 0. 757500 1291449. 1893700. 0.681971 0.688991 2.410000 2.465000 0.830000 0. 782500 1331131. 1901100. 0.700190 0.692563 2.640000 2.520000 0.840000 0. 810000 1365936. 1966100. 0.694744 0.693149 2.800000 2.595000 0.850000 0. 827500 1405811. 2051000. 0.685427 0.690583 2.590000 2.610000 0.860000 0. 845000 1420605. 2109500. 0.673432 0.688448 2.490000 2.630000 0.860000 0. 852500 1458316. 2140600. 0.681265 0.683717 2.360000 2.560000 0.890000 0. 865000 1492686. 2208500. 0.675882 0.679002 2.280000 2.430000 0.900000 0. 877500 1521659. 2239200. 0.679555 0.677534 2.390000 2.380000 0.880000 0. 882500 1527968. 2256500. 0.677141 0.678461 2.370000 2.350000 0.890000 0. 890000 1552917. 2303500. 0.674155 0.676683 2.190000 2.307500 0.970000 0. 910000 1571216. 2343500. 0.670457 0.675327 2.200000 2.287500 0.950000 0. 922500 1600319. 2374700. 0.673904 0.673914 2.220000 2.245000 0.960000 0. 942500 1598202. 2405800. 0.664312 0.670707 2.230000 2.210000 0.960000 0. 960000 1646722. 2457300. 0.670135 0.669702 2.000000 2.162500 0.950000 0. 955000 1705086. 2517600. 0.677266 0.671404 1.910000 2.090000 0.890000 0. 940000 1765985. 2594200. 0.680744 0.673114 1.900000 2.010000 0.930000 0. 932500 1795160. 2683900. 0.668862 0.674252 1.820000 1.907500 0.900000 0. 917500 1864858. 2734200. 0.682049 0.677230 2.010000 1.910000 0.890000 0. 902500 1921864. 2790900. 0.688618 0.680068 2.000000 1.932500 0.950000 0. 917500 1993339. 2829100. 0.704584 0.686028 1.990000 1.955000 0.950000 0. 922500 2028379. 2862900. 0.708505 0.695939 2.270000 2.067500 1.000000 0. 947500 2097482. 2950900. 0.710794 0.703125 2.320000 2.145000 0.950000 0. 962500 2176914. 2950200. 0.737887 0.715443 2.340000 2.230000 0.970000 0. 967500 2270996. 3007900. 0.755010 0.728049 2.300000 2.307500 0.940000 0. 965000 2307064. 3075500. 0.750143 0.738459 2.320000 2.320000 0.960000 0. 955000 2389476. 3130500. 0.763289 0.751582 2.500000 2.365000 0.950000 0. 955000 2491378. 3150600. 0.790763 0.764801 2.260000 2.345000 0.900000 0. 937500 2584010. 3169300. 0.815325 0.779880 2.280000 2.340000 0.890000 0. 925000 2595069. 3241900. 0.800478 0.792464 2.370000 2.352500 0.830000 0. 892500 2698785. 3224000. 0.837092 0.810915 2.380000 2.322500 0.830000 0. 862500 2773980. 3302400. 0.839989 0.823221 2.350000 2.345000 0.740000 0. 822500 2861275. 3389900. 0.844059 0.830404 2.560000 2.415000 0.800000 0. 800000 2892878. 3456800. 0.836866 0.839502 2.320000 2.402500 0.740000 0. 777500 3003760. 3507500. 0.856382 0.844324 2.320000 2.387500 0.800000 0. 770000 3084557. 3575200. 0.862765 0.850018 2.420000 2.405000 0.750000 0. 772500 3177312. 3653200. 0.869734 0.856437 2.530000 2.397500 0.750000 0. 760000 3230476. 3730000. 0.866079 0.863740 2.380000 2.412500 0.740000 0. 760000 3313909. 3758300. 0.881757 0.870084 2.330000 2.415000 0.740000 0. 745000 3410535. 3795400. 0.898597 0.879042 2.820000 2.515000 0.780000 0. 752500 3508178. 3864300. 0.907843 0.888569 2.660000 2.547500 0.760000 0. 755000 3590802. 3962200. 0.906265 0.898616 2.440000 2.562500 0.700000 0. 745000 3662650. 4015900. 0.912037 0.906186 2.570000 2.622500 0.700000 0. 735000 3727452. 4065300. 0.916895 0.910760 2.510000 2.545000 0.780000 0. 735000 3780605. 4128100. 0.915822 0.912755 2.500000 2.505000 0.750000 0. 732500 3788256. 4136000. 0.915923 0.915169 2.580000 2.540000 0.790000 0. 755000 3848341. 4189700. 0.918524 0.916791 2.680000 2.567500 0.860000 0. 795000 3888661. 4227600. 0.919827 0.917524 2.770000 2.632500 0.820000 0. 805000 3938620. 4284900. 0.919186 0.918365 2.590000 2.655000 0.760000 0. 807500 3960822. 4361000. 0.908237 0.916444 2.740000 2.695000 0.700000 0. 785000 FIGURE 5 QUARTERLY DATA: 1952.1 TO 1992.1 CENFB IS CAP EXP.(INVESTMENT) OF NONFINANCIAL BUSINESS CENFGPMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE CMDNFB IS CREDIT MARKET DEBT FOR NONFINANCIAL BUSINESS YNFB IS NET INCOME FOR NONFINANCIAL BUSINESS CDYNFBMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE CENFB GDP CENFBGDP (CENFGPMA) CMDNFB YNFB (CDYNFBMA) 38868.00 343.2000 0.113252 . 107467.0 83280.00 . 31328.00 343.7000 0.091149 . 109912.0 81924.00 . 34156.00 349.6000 0.097700 . 112434.0 83652.00 . 37952.00 362.2000 0.104782 0.101721 115241.0 85064.00 1.332722 36924.00 369.0000 0.100065 0.098424 116573.0 86948.00 1.345295 38136.00 372.4000 0.102406 0.101238 118556.0 86520.00 1.352455 35888.00 371.8000 0.096525 0.100944 120199.0 85232.00 1.369002 30320.00 366.8000 0.082661 0.095414 120378.0 76676.00 1.422802 31532.00 366.3000 0.086082 0.091919 121503.0 78848.00 1.472866 32476.00 366.6000 0.088587 0.088464 122945.0 78872.00 1.519996 33808.00 371.2000 0.091078 0.087102 125233.0 81956.00 1.549444 36172.00 379.4000 0.095340 0.090272 126871.0 84892.00 1.530580 40920.00 392.3000 0.104308 0.094828 128217.0 90636.00 1.498995 43784.00 400.6000 0.109296 0.100005 131724.0 91856.00 1.467804 45328.00 408.9000 0.110854 0.104949 134514.0 93500.00 1.445454 47156.00 415.2000 0.113574 0.109508 138779.0 96180.00 1.432556 47252.00 417.6000 0.113151 0.111719 141517.0 93880.00 1.455753 47312.00 423.1000 0.111822 0.112350 145644.0 95080.00 1.480198 47788.00 427.8000 0.111706 0.112564 148675.0 93136.00 1.519615 47860.00 436.5000 0.109645 0.111581 151682.0 96476.00 1.551944 47792.00 444.9000 0.107422 0.110149 154101.0 97164.00 1.571585 48316.00 446.6000 0.108186 0.109240 158091.0 95572.00 1.602173 50828.00 453.9000 0.111981 0.109308 160610.0 95616.00 1.623027 44004.00 449.0000 0.098004 0.106398 163613.0 91336.00 1.677804 37100.00 441.6000 0.084013 0.100546 165644.0 87336.00 1.755464 36040.00 445.8000 0.080843 0.093710 168279.0 87932.00 1.820360 41420.00 459.1000 0.090220 0.088270 170676.0 92796.00 1.860240 48032.00 472.3000 0.101698 0.089194 175166.0 99344.00 1.853214 46760.00 483.5000 0.096711 0.092368 177687.0 101968.0 1.814701 51788.00 496.2000 0.104369 0.098250 183233.0 107092.0 1.764013 45728.00 496.4000 0.092119 0.098725 185842.0 100124.0 1.768227 49460.00 500.5000 0.098821 0.098005 190111.0 99048.00 1.807266 58328.00 514.0000 0.113479 0.102197 193726.0 102944.0 1.842087 50592.00 512.9000 0.098639 0.100765 198192.0 99320.00 1.913212 50376.00 515.8000 0.097666 0.102151 199880.0 97372.00 1.962369 40404.00 510.8000 0.079099 0.097221 204235.0 95504.00 2.017148 42708.00 515.1000 0.082912 0.089579 206090.0 95220.00 2.087772 47988.00 525.9000 0.091249 0.087732 210128.0 98840.00 2.120385 53472.00 536.6000 0.099650 0.088228 212794.0 102512.0 2.126148 54340.00 549.5000 0.098890 0.093175 218605.0 108232.0 2.096469 58840.00 561.9000 0.104716 0.098626 221245.0 107228.0 2.071208 56368.00 569.4000 0.098995 0.100563 227231.0 106632.0 2.072469 57512.00 576.2000 0.099813 0.100604 230554.0 108720.0 2.083675 54152.00 578.9000 0.093543 0.099267 236956.0 110000.0 2.117266 58308.00 588.1000 0.099146 0.097874 240322.0 109736.0 2.148938 58172.00 596.7000 0.097490 0.097498 246085.0 113512.0 2.158172 60844.00 609.4000 0.099842 0.097505 249226.0 115792.0 2.166107 61280.00 618.3000 0.099110 0.098897 257012.0 118880.0 2.168056 63256.00 634.8000 0.099647 0.099022 260461.0 121968.0 2.154428 64008.00 643.6000 0.099453 0.099513 267498.0 122720.0 2.157383 65236.00 654.1000 0.099734 0.099486 271876.0 125064.0 2.162767 67880.00 659.7000 0.102895 0.100432 279539.0 125404.0 2.179558 78936.00 679.8000 0.116117 0.104550 286103.0 133280.0 2.182344 78332.00 691.9000 0.113213 0.107990 294956.0 137208.0 2.174833 81536.00 708.3000 0.115115 0.111835 300565.0 139432.0 2.170269 83492.00 730.7000 0.114263 0.114677 309637.0 145428.0 2.145278 92608.00 753.1000 0.122969 0.116390 318593.0 150320.0 2.138478 93388.00 762.2000 0.122524 0.118718 330587.0 148216.0 2.158664 93960.00 775.3000 0.121192 0.120237 336350.0 147936.0 2.188159 98824.00 788.5000 0.125332 0.123004 344262.0 147096.0 2.240970 93972.00 797.7000 0.117804 0.121713 351829.0 144208.0 2.321045 86864.00 803.8000 0.108067 0.118098 362500.0 144552.0 2.390372 92596.00 820.5000 0.112853 0.116014 368526.0 147384.0 2.447080 94940.00 835.3000 0.113660 0.113096 379587.0 151440.0 2.488611 98812.00 859.6000 0.114951 0.112383 386607.0 153420.0 2.508660 103848.0 883.7000 0.117515 0.114745 398544.0 155564.0 2.522205 102264.0 900.3000 0.113589 0.114929 406766.0 157376.0 2.543262 102036.0 913.7000 0.111673 0.114432 420706.0 160952.0 2.570098 111896.0 937.3000 0.119381 0.115540 431375.0 159964.0 2.614292 111492.0 951.1000 0.117224 0.115467 447622.0 159104.0 2.677157 116700.0 970.7000 0.120223 0.117125 458147.0 156532.0 2.762703 113024.0 978.8000 0.115472 0.118075 470944.0 155580.0 2.865993 108444.0 989.7000 0.109573 0.115623 478979.0 147104.0 3.005832 110952.0 1003.800 0.110532 0.113950 496087.0 145440.0 3.155219 114276.0 1022.800 0.111729 0.111826 506537.0 147536.0 3.281832 105088.0 1026.400 0.102385 0.108555 517995.0 145104.0 3.417531 124252.0 1069.800 0.116145 0.110198 528678.0 154896.0 3.456796 122468.0 1088.200 0.112542 0.110700 545070.0 158612.0 3.463186 124236.0 1108.400 0.112086 0.110789 557077.0 162712.0 3.460783 119176.0 1122.300 0.106189 0.111740 569236.0 169508.0 3.407870 128668.0 1160.900 0.110835 0.110413 583151.0 174120.0 3.391874 138252.0 1192.500 0.115935 0.111261 602988.0 173072.0 3.403757 143424.0 1217.700 0.117783 0.112685 615253.0 186188.0 3.373950 149484.0 1256.800 0.118940 0.115873 638551.0 203300.0 3.319641 162344.0 1304.400 0.124459 0.119279 662295.0 215240.0 3.251610 169156.0 1334.500 0.126756 0.121984 689812.0 218104.0 3.171294 171656.0 1358.400 0.126366 0.124130 710753.0 220724.0 3.150200 187460.0 1401.200 0.133785 0.127842 731254.0 242336.0 3.119348 176568.0 1410.900 0.125146 0.128013 753160.0 232756.0 3.159055 193236.0 1444.100 0.133811 0.129777 784621.0 226556.0 3.234177 174928.0 1474.700 0.118619 0.127840 806515.0 243652.0 3.256680 191052.0 1504.800 0.126962 0.126134 828847.0 232160.0 3.394838 149044.0 1513.600 0.098470 0.119465 838550.0 209552.0 3.586288 145608.0 1552.100 0.093814 0.109466 851096.0 222168.0 3.678191 165952.0 1614.400 0.102795 0.105510 857461.0 257904.0 3.681846 171200.0 1663.300 0.102928 0.099502 870421.0 267624.0 3.602408 192700.0 1717.800 0.112178 0.102929 880486.0 280216.0 3.387542 200188.0 1746.400 0.114629 0.108133 901032.0 277544.0 3.241437 206048.0 1779.900 0.115764 0.111375 916256.0 278048.0 3.234084 202408.0 1829.600 0.110630 0.113300 938738.0 280668.0 3.257147 217588.0 1881.700 0.115634 0.114164 964947.0 297900.0 3.281396 240332.0 1952.900 0.123064 0.116273 994634.0 311788.0 3.267308 263668.0 2015.100 0.130846 0.120043 1017540. 327200.0 3.220940 252440.0 2046.800 0.123334 0.123219 1052312. 324428.0 3.195673 260708.0 2090.200 0.124729 0.125493 1083245. 322168.0 3.226473 290076.0 2213.900 0.131025 0.127483 1123791. 367564.0 3.193299 298604.0 2274.700 0.131272 0.127590 1150362. 372404.0 3.188093 316784.0 2352.000 0.134687 0.130428 1186070. 384940.0 3.147490 323716.0 2399.200 0.134927 0.132978 1223507. 386420.0 3.098465 328916.0 2453.300 0.134071 0.133739 1272838. 389424.0 3.151244 333900.0 2523.300 0.132327 0.134003 1311989. 394616.0 3.210170 336148.0 2578.800 0.130351 0.132919 1349527. 386420.0 3.312971 352008.0 2650.100 0.132828 0.132394 1392465. 393524.0 3.406018 326004.0 2643.900 0.123304 0.129702 1418052. 328404.0 3.668392 303636.0 2705.300 0.112237 0.124680 1444718. 359320.0 3.842386 350040.0 2832.900 0.123562 0.122983 1484262. 393344.0 3.912652 383684.0 2953.500 0.129908 0.122253 1516661. 410076.0 3.952661 394924.0 2993.000 0.131949 0.124414 1570584. 381164.0 3.903282 441076.0 3079.600 0.143225 0.132161 1617316. 388336.0 3.939290 432360.0 3096.300 0.139638 0.136180 1650001. 358220.0 4.147456 390980.0 3092.900 0.126412 0.135306 1684780. 325652.0 4.516224 393476.0 3146.200 0.125064 0.133585 1729473. 335484.0 4.774890 379112.0 3164.200 0.119813 0.127732 1760639. 332952.0 5.055698 334136.0 3195.100 0.104578 0.118967 1775439. 325780.0 5.266623 316676.0 3254.900 0.097292 0.111687 1819671. 328164.0 5.359485 369500.0 3367.100 0.109738 0.107855 1853217. 372376.0 5.314879 372892.0 3450.900 0.108056 0.104916 1892706. 387744.0 5.213220 414980.0 3547.300 0.116985 0.108018 1946180. 398812.0 5.070753 485580.0 3666.900 0.132422 0.116801 2015648. 473304.0 4.749171 507580.0 3754.600 0.135189 0.123163 2098661. 465536.0 4.632000 524780.0 3818.200 0.137442 0.130509 2162469. 450228.0 4.612431 506876.0 3869.100 0.131006 0.134015 2249507. 445316.0 4.655316 477460.0 3940.000 0.121183 0.131205 2305737. 458160.0 4.848798 493316.0 3997.500 0.123406 0.128259 2369098. 453788.0 5.026964 484928.0 4076.900 0.118945 0.123635 2421692. 461244.0 5.138788 502160.0 4140.500 0.121280 0.121204 2512233. 469608.0 5.213326 504264.0 4215.700 0.119616 0.120812 2576615. 443264.0 5.408381 469712.0 4232.000 0.110991 0.117708 2646239. 465064.0 5.525716 432692.0 4290.200 0.100856 0.113186 2702864. 463652.0 5.670506 429652.0 4336.600 0.099076 0.107634 2806288. 481088.0 5.791399 451760.0 4408.300 0.102479 0.103350 2864305. 518740.0 5.718608 455456.0 4494.900 0.101327 0.100935 2920755. 542948.0 5.640954 457660.0 4573.500 0.100068 0.100738 2962221. 560536.0 5.504733 515312.0 4683.000 0.110039 0.103478 3034566. 583228.0 5.347193 483544.0 4752.400 0.101747 0.103295 3094422. 596072.0 5.264617 497584.0 4857.200 0.102443 0.103574 3169506. 608340.0 5.222280 501744.0 4947.300 0.101418 0.103912 3207690. 604920.0 5.226791 509816.0 5044.600 0.101062 0.101667 3281591. 640740.0 5.206419 538012.0 5150.000 0.104468 0.102348 3352072. 652992.0 5.191932 534112.0 5229.500 0.102134 0.102271 3428883. 622720.0 5.265984 516580.0 5278.900 0.097858 0.101381 3462474. 583232.0 5.424492 525360.0 5344.800 0.098294 0.100688 3512010. 591304.0 5.628959 516276.0 5445.200 0.094813 0.098275 3547507. 622608.0 5.770062 538972.0 5522.600 0.097594 0.097140 3586992. 634184.0 5.807507 520560.0 5559.600 0.093633 0.096083 3603695. 643564.0 5.723229 467344.0 5561.300 0.084035 0.092519 3618009. 635516.0 5.661627 443316.0 5585.800 0.079365 0.088657 3625214. 596152.0 5.757428 445300.0 5657.600 0.078708 0.083935 3641468. 617360.0 5.818023 460536.0 5713.100 0.080611 0.080680 3615251. 618236.0 5.880047 459620.0 5753.300 0.079888 0.079643 3593323. 618488.0 5.909253 444528.0 5840.200 0.076115 0.078831 3604891. 641352.0 5.794189 FIGURE 6 QUARTERLY DATA: 1952.1 TO 1992.1 BFNOSA IS NUMBER OF BUSINESS FAILURES(QUARTERLY AVERAGE OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY DATA) BFNOMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE CDYNFBMA IS 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE BFNOSA (BFNOMA) CMDNFB YNFB CMDYNFB (CDYNFBMA) 634.7627 . 107467.0 83280.00 1.290430 . 661.8187 . 109912.0 81924.00 1.341634 . 610.2076 . 112434.0 83652.00 1.344068 . 625.2680 633.0143 115241.0 85064.00 1.354756 1.332722 656.6713 638.4914 116573.0 86948.00 1.340721 1.345295 702.4300 648.6442 118556.0 86520.00 1.370273 1.352455 754.3557 684.6813 120199.0 85232.00 1.410257 1.369002 853.3116 741.6921 120378.0 76676.00 1.569957 1.422802 908.0403 804.5344 121503.0 78848.00 1.540978 1.472866 922.7336 859.6103 122945.0 78872.00 1.558792 1.519996 925.2717 902.3393 125233.0 81956.00 1.528052 1.549444 941.8300 924.4689 126871.0 84892.00 1.494499 1.530580 891.5833 920.3547 128217.0 90636.00 1.414637 1.498995 891.4167 912.5255 131724.0 91856.00 1.434027 1.467804 918.8533 910.9208 134514.0 93500.00 1.438652 1.445454 959.6100 915.3658 138779.0 96180.00 1.442909 1.432556 1010.660 945.1350 141517.0 93880.00 1.507424 1.455753 1050.127 984.8126 145644.0 95080.00 1.531805 1.480198 1084.590 1026.247 148675.0 93136.00 1.596321 1.519615 1088.977 1058.589 151682.0 96476.00 1.572225 1.551944 1129.500 1088.298 154101.0 97164.00 1.585989 1.571585 1117.940 1105.252 158091.0 95572.00 1.654156 1.602173 1164.137 1125.138 160610.0 95616.00 1.679740 1.623027 1174.757 1146.583 163613.0 91336.00 1.791331 1.677804 1281.990 1184.706 165644.0 87336.00 1.896629 1.755464 1282.920 1225.951 168279.0 87932.00 1.913740 1.820360 1213.513 1238.295 170676.0 92796.00 1.839260 1.860240 1200.473 1244.724 175166.0 99344.00 1.763227 1.853214 1183.200 1220.026 177687.0 101968.0 1.742576 1.814701 1162.827 1190.003 183233.0 107092.0 1.710987 1.764013 1188.660 1183.790 185842.0 100124.0 1.856118 1.768227 1153.517 1172.051 190111.0 99048.00 1.919383 1.807266 1190.277 1173.820 193726.0 102944.0 1.881858 1.842087 1264.343 1199.199 198192.0 99320.00 1.995489 1.913212 1319.883 1232.005 199880.0 97372.00 2.052746 1.962369 1387.257 1290.440 204235.0 95504.00 2.138497 2.017148 1420.843 1348.082 206090.0 95220.00 2.164356 2.087772 1402.307 1382.573 210128.0 98840.00 2.125941 2.120385 1464.523 1418.732 212794.0 102512.0 2.075796 2.126148 1406.867 1423.635 218605.0 108232.0 2.019782 2.096469 1359.643 1408.335 221245.0 107228.0 2.063314 2.071208 1336.157 1391.797 227231.0 106632.0 2.130983 2.072469 1260.047 1340.678 230554.0 108720.0 2.120622 2.083675 1294.867 1312.678 236956.0 110000.0 2.154145 2.117266 1219.003 1277.519 240322.0 109736.0 2.190001 2.148938 1229.783 1250.925 246085.0 113512.0 2.167921 2.158172 1162.800 1226.613 249226.0 115792.0 2.152359 2.166107 1177.623 1197.302 257012.0 118880.0 2.161945 2.168056 1189.010 1189.804 260461.0 121968.0 2.135486 2.154428 1115.387 1161.205 267498.0 122720.0 2.179743 2.157383 1138.773 1155.198 271876.0 125064.0 2.173895 2.162767 1050.300 1123.367 279539.0 125404.0 2.229108 2.179558 1126.367 1107.707 286103.0 133280.0 2.146631 2.182344 1127.050 1110.623 294956.0 137208.0 2.149700 2.174833 1135.947 1109.916 300565.0 139432.0 2.155639 2.170269 1116.733 1126.524 309637.0 145428.0 2.129143 2.145278 1024.857 1101.147 318593.0 150320.0 2.119432 2.138478 1036.670 1078.552 330587.0 148216.0 2.230441 2.158664 1131.143 1077.351 336350.0 147936.0 2.273618 2.188159 1162.643 1088.828 344262.0 147096.0 2.340390 2.240970 1154.240 1121.174 351829.0 144208.0 2.439733 2.321045 1075.693 1130.930 362500.0 144552.0 2.507748 2.390372 949.8267 1085.601 368526.0 147384.0 2.500448 2.447080 929.0800 1027.210 379587.0 151440.0 2.506517 2.488611 857.0367 952.9091 386607.0 153420.0 2.519926 2.508660 861.7767 899.4301 398544.0 155564.0 2.561929 2.522205 775.5833 855.8691 406766.0 157376.0 2.584676 2.543262 703.4626 799.4648 420706.0 160952.0 2.613860 2.570098 745.1500 771.4932 431375.0 159964.0 2.696701 2.614292 764.7900 747.2465 447622.0 159104.0 2.813392 2.677157 741.8590 738.8154 458147.0 156532.0 2.926858 2.762703 801.7733 763.3931 470944.0 155580.0 3.027021 2.865993 802.8583 777.8201 478979.0 147104.0 3.256057 3.005832 882.3410 807.2079 496087.0 145440.0 3.410939 3.155219 956.3450 860.8294 506537.0 147536.0 3.433311 3.281832 951.4683 898.2532 517995.0 145104.0 3.569819 3.417531 907.0173 924.2929 528678.0 154896.0 3.413116 3.456796 900.6577 928.8721 545070.0 158612.0 3.436499 3.463186 827.9520 896.7738 557077.0 162712.0 3.423700 3.460783 804.6003 860.0568 569236.0 169508.0 3.358166 3.407870 835.8160 842.2565 583151.0 174120.0 3.349133 3.391874 761.5883 807.4891 602988.0 173072.0 3.484030 3.403757 800.7874 800.6980 615253.0 186188.0 3.304472 3.373950 796.3943 798.6465 638551.0 203300.0 3.140930 3.319641 757.5483 779.0796 662295.0 215240.0 3.077007 3.251610 793.5280 787.0645 689812.0 218104.0 3.162766 3.171294 792.3893 784.9650 710753.0 220724.0 3.220098 3.150200 779.1830 780.6621 731254.0 242336.0 3.017521 3.119348 802.6800 791.9451 753160.0 232756.0 3.235835 3.159055 803.0034 794.3139 784621.0 226556.0 3.463254 3.234177 823.0067 801.9683 806515.0 243652.0 3.310110 3.256680 881.3766 827.5167 828847.0 232160.0 3.570154 3.394838 1000.867 877.0634 838550.0 209552.0 4.001632 3.586288 966.6433 917.9734 851096.0 222168.0 3.830867 3.678191 936.8633 946.4376 857461.0 257904.0 3.324729 3.681846 894.5003 949.7185 870421.0 267624.0 3.252403 3.602408 859.5163 914.3808 880486.0 280216.0 3.142169 3.387542 788.9240 869.9510 901032.0 277544.0 3.246447 3.241437 778.3573 830.3245 916256.0 278048.0 3.295316 3.234084 780.9417 801.9348 938738.0 280668.0 3.344656 3.257147 699.5450 761.9420 964947.0 297900.0 3.239164 3.281396 712.3957 742.8099 994634.0 311788.0 3.190097 3.267308 618.6683 702.8877 1017540. 327200.0 3.109841 3.220940 593.6563 656.0663 1052312. 324428.0 3.243592 3.195673 551.0703 618.9476 1083245. 322168.0 3.362361 3.226473 530.8653 573.5651 1123791. 367564.0 3.057402 3.193299 554.5577 557.5374 1150362. 372404.0 3.089016 3.188093 567.0500 550.8858 1186070. 384940.0 3.081182 3.147490 614.8833 566.8391 1223507. 386420.0 3.166262 3.098465 636.6567 593.2869 1272838. 389424.0 3.268515 3.151244 632.2033 612.6983 1311989. 394616.0 3.324723 3.210170 637.7000 630.3608 1349527. 386420.0 3.492384 3.312971 771.4700 669.5075 1392465. 393524.0 3.538450 3.406018 971.1000 753.1183 1418052. 328404.0 4.318011 3.668392 1038.817 854.7717 1444718. 359320.0 4.020700 3.842386 1144.000 981.3467 1484262. 393344.0 3.773445 3.912652 1133.733 1071.912 1516661. 410076.0 3.698488 3.952661 1382.093 1174.661 1570584. 381164.0 4.120494 3.903282 1489.053 1287.220 1617316. 388336.0 4.164733 3.939290 1644.030 1412.227 1650001. 358220.0 4.606111 4.147456 1755.687 1567.716 1684780. 325652.0 5.173560 4.516224 1972.133 1715.226 1729473. 335484.0 5.155158 4.774890 2236.897 1902.187 1760639. 332952.0 5.287966 5.055698 2382.303 2086.755 1775439. 325780.0 5.449810 5.266623 2434.983 2256.579 1819671. 328164.0 5.545005 5.359485 2351.240 2351.356 1853217. 372376.0 4.976736 5.314879 2719.867 2472.098 1892706. 387744.0 4.881329 5.213220 2995.293 2625.346 1946180. 398812.0 4.879943 5.070753 4462.697 3132.274 2015648. 473304.0 4.258675 4.749171 4244.053 3605.478 2098661. 465536.0 4.508053 4.632000 4219.060 3980.276 2162469. 450228.0 4.803053 4.612431 4401.610 4331.855 2249507. 445316.0 5.051485 4.655316 4199.073 4265.949 2305737. 458160.0 5.032602 4.848798 4796.037 4403.945 2369098. 453788.0 5.220716 5.026964 4815.860 4553.145 2421692. 461244.0 5.250349 5.138788 5264.144 4768.778 2512233. 469608.0 5.349638 5.213326 4838.263 4928.576 2576615. 443264.0 5.812823 5.408381 5047.874 4991.535 2646239. 465064.0 5.690053 5.525716 5135.950 5071.558 2702864. 463652.0 5.829510 5.670506 5595.336 5154.356 2806288. 481088.0 5.833211 5.791399 5264.760 5260.980 2864305. 518740.0 5.521658 5.718608 5312.910 5327.239 2920755. 542948.0 5.379438 5.640954 5046.737 5304.936 2962221. 560536.0 5.284622 5.504733 4707.600 5083.002 3034566. 583228.0 5.203053 5.347193 5006.593 5018.460 3094422. 596072.0 5.191356 5.264617 4760.520 4880.362 3169506. 608340.0 5.210090 5.222280 4874.783 4837.374 3207690. 604920.0 5.302668 5.226791 4369.303 4752.800 3281591. 640740.0 5.121564 5.206419 4343.187 4586.948 3352072. 652992.0 5.133404 5.191932 4085.277 4418.138 3428883. 622720.0 5.506300 5.265984 4060.860 4214.657 3462474. 583232.0 5.936701 5.424492 4291.317 4195.160 3512010. 591304.0 5.939432 5.628959 4268.980 4176.608 3547507. 622608.0 5.697818 5.770062 4858.090 4369.812 3586992. 634184.0 5.656075 5.807507 5227.633 4661.505 3603695. 643564.0 5.599591 5.723229 5906.067 5065.192 3618009. 635516.0 5.693026 5.661627 6631.313 5655.775 3625214. 596152.0 6.081023 5.757428 7182.520 6236.883 3641468. 617360.0 5.898451 5.818023 7609.020 6832.230 3615251. 618236.0 5.847688 5.880047 7829.233 7313.021 3593323. 618488.0 5.809851 5.909253 8010.540 7657.828 3604891. 641352.0 5.620769 5.794189 DATA FOR TABLE 2: Growth Rates of Credit Market Debt and Tangible Assets Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Balance Sheets for the U.S. Economy (C.9 release) Billions of Dollars DEBT 1991 1981 1971 1961 Households 1860.8 602.2 246.7 156.0 Businesses (nonfinancial) 3593.2 1650.0 569.3 218.6 Farm 138.8 177.8 51.6 21.6 Nonfarm noncorporate 1180.6 492.2 121.6 29.6 Nonfinancial corporate 2273.8 980.0 396.1 167.4 TANGIBLE ASSETS 1991 1981 1971 1961 Households 9256.2 5115.9 1483.4 761.2 Businesses (nonfinancial) 8534.1 6309.5 1791.0 884.3 Farm 858.8 1047.1 303.4 185.0 Nonfarm noncorporate 2625.4 1587.9 430.3 208.8 Nonfinancial corporate 5049.9 3674.5 1057.3 490.5 Example of growth rate (compounded annual rate) of household debt 1981 to 1991: Growth Rate(%) = 11.9 = (((1860.8/602.2)**1/10)-1)*100