************************************************************************** *** "The Feds Monetary Policy Rule" *** William Poole *** Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January-February 2006, 88(1) *** *** This article was originally presented as a speech at *** the Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., October 14, 2005. *** *** This file contains the data and the program to create Figures 3 and 4. ************************************************************************** cal 1939 1 12 all 2005:8 *Monthly Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All Employees *From FRED database, Series ID:PAYEMS, as of August 2005 data(unit=input) / payemp 29923 30100 30280 30094 30300 30502 30419 30662 31032 31408 31469 31539 31603 31715 31826 31699 31880 31978 31942 32352 32810 33265 33668 34172 34480 34844 35094 35468 36182 36651 37137 37544 37836 37948 38024 38104 38348 38513 38936 39351 39772 40028 40470 40988 41254 41514 41673 41915 42174 42395 42553 42646 42596 42781 42701 42546 42484 42675 42819 42747 42661 42543 42291 42062 41985 41947 41904 41848 41671 41708 41711 41861 41903 41903 41795 41443 41304 41148 40873 40466 38500 38598 38996 39111 39839 39250 40192 40908 41348 41732 42153 42642 42908 43094 43396 43379 43545 43563 43605 43491 43637 43808 43742 43958 44201 44415 44486 44578 44686 44537 44680 44369 44795 45032 45160 45175 45294 45250 45194 45028 44675 44500 44238 44230 43982 43739 43530 43621 43784 42950 43244 43516 43530 43298 43952 44376 44717 45084 45453 46187 46442 46712 46778 46855 47289 47577 47871 47856 47952 48067 48061 48008 47955 48009 48149 48308 48299 48522 48504 48616 48645 48286 48144 48922 49319 49598 49816 50164 50145 50339 50474 50432 50491 50522 50536 50487 50365 50242 49906 49702 49467 49381 49158 49177 48965 48896 48834 48825 48881 48944 49179 49331 49497 49644 49963 50246 50512 50790 50985 51112 51262 51431 51592 51805 51975 52167 52295 52375 52506 52583 51954 52632 52600 52781 52822 52930 52888 53098 53156 53238 53149 53066 53122 53128 52932 52765 52557 52385 52077 51576 51300 51026 50913 50912 51037 51233 51506 51485 51943 52088 52481 52687 53016 53320 53549 53678 53803 53337 53428 53359 53635 54175 54274 54513 54458 54812 54472 54347 54303 54272 54228 54144 53962 53743 53683 53556 53662 53626 53783 53977 54124 54299 54387 54521 54743 54871 54891 55187 55276 55601 55626 55644 55746 55838 55977 56041 56055 56027 56116 56231 56322 56580 56616 56658 56795 56910 57078 57284 57255 57360 57487 57752 57898 57923 58089 58221 58412 58620 58903 58794 59217 59420 59583 59800 60003 60258 60492 60690 60963 61228 61490 61718 61997 62321 62528 62796 63191 63436 63711 64110 64301 64507 64645 64854 65019 65199 65407 65427 65530 65467 65618 65750 65887 66142 66163 66225 66703 66900 66805 67214 67296 67555 67652 67904 68126 68328 68487 68720 68985 69245 69438 69698 69906 70072 70328 70636 70730 71005 70918 71119 71088 71240 71176 71302 71453 71348 71122 71028 71055 70932 70949 70519 70409 70790 70866 70805 70859 71037 71247 71253 71316 71368 71620 71642 71844 72108 72445 72652 72945 73163 73467 73760 73709 74137 74268 74672 74965 75270 75620 76017 76286 76456 76646 76886 76911 77166 77281 77605 77909 78035 78104 78253 78295 78384 78547 78602 78634 78619 78614 78627 78259 77657 77297 76919 76649 76463 76623 76519 76768 77154 77232 77535 77679 78017 78506 78817 79049 79293 79311 79376 79546 79704 79892 79905 80237 80448 80692 80987 81391 81730 82089 82488 82836 83074 83532 83794 84173 84408 84595 84948 85461 86163 86509 86951 87205 87481 87618 87954 88391 88674 88811 89054 89480 89418 89790 90108 90214 90296 90323 90480 90574 90669 90800 90879 90991 90846 90415 90095 89832 90092 90205 90485 90741 90936 91031 91098 91202 91276 91286 91482 91594 91558 91471 91371 91162 90884 90557 90551 90422 90141 90096 89853 89510 89352 89171 88894 88770 88756 88981 88903 89076 89352 89629 90007 90425 90117 91231 91502 91854 92210 92657 93136 93411 93774 94082 94461 94773 95014 95325 95611 95960 96087 96353 96477 96823 97018 97292 97437 97626 97819 98023 98210 98419 98587 98710 98817 98910 99098 99223 99130 99448 99561 99907 100094 100280 100484 100655 100887 101136 101474 101701 101872 102218 102388 102617 103109 103340 103634 103728 104180 104456 104701 104928 105291 105514 105635 105975 106243 106582 106871 107133 107391 107583 107756 107874 107991 108030 108077 108326 108437 108714 108809 109144 109397 109618 109652 109801 109820 109773 109569 109485 109321 109175 109118 108998 108698 108542 108325 108203 108283 108233 108252 108285 108293 108235 108261 108313 108242 108301 108457 108584 108640 108714 108851 108888 109061 109205 109418 109725 109962 109916 110223 110496 110660 110960 111119 111359 111638 111901 112203 112473 112665 113133 113490 113829 114139 114498 114801 115155 115361 115786 116056 116377 116588 116808 116971 116962 117189 117260 117538 117777 117926 118070 118210 118192 118627 118882 119047 119376 119647 119875 120078 120296 120534 120826 121003 121232 121526 121843 122134 122396 122642 122918 122911 123417 123756 124063 124361 124629 124814 124962 125240 125641 125846 125967 126322 126543 126735 127020 127364 127477 127873 127997 128379 128593 128850 129145 129338 129525 129947 130242 130536 130781 130901 131377 131662 131882 131839 132015 132004 132122 132110 132326 132484 132454 132546 132511 132214 132187 132029 131941 131803 131549 131172 130879 130705 130581 130478 130441 130335 130326 130377 130277 130295 130250 130309 130315 130161 130247 130125 129907 129853 129827 129854 129857 129859 129953 130076 130172 130255 130372 130466 130786 131123 131373 131479 131562 131750 131880 132162 132294 132449 132573 132873 132995 133287 133413 133588 133830 133999 graph 1 #payemp set difemp / = payemp - payemp{1} graph 1 #difemp smpl 1947:1 2005:8 graph(header='Figure 3: Monthly Changes in Nonfarm Payroll Employment',subhead='Jan-1947 -- Aug-2005') 1 #difemp set anndifemp / = payemp - payemp{12} graph(header='Year-over-Year Changes in Nonfarm Payroll Employment') 1 #anndifemp corr(number=12) difemp / autocor graph(style=bar,header='Figure 4: Autocorrelations of Monthly Payroll Employment Changes',subhead='Jan-1947 -- Aug-2005',number=1,max=1,min=0,hlabel='Lag') 1 #autocor 2 13 boxjenk(ar=1,ma=1) difemp / resid corr(number=12) resid / autocor graph(style=bar,min=-1,max=1,number=1) 1 #autocor 2 13