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2009, No. 1: Is There Less Agreement About Inflation? (PDF 89k)
“Agreement about current-year CPI inflation for 2008 began to deteriorate about midyear.”
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-01-05
2009, No. 2: A Perspective on the Current Recession: It’s Not the “Worst Case” Yet (PDF 119k)
“The current recession actually looks relatively mild, so far, when we look at the decline in industrial production.”
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-01-06
2009, No. 3: Gross Credit Flows of U.S. Commercial Banks until 2008:Q3 (PDF 119k)
“The first two quarters of 2008 show sharply decreased expansion and increased contraction, followed by a third-quarter rebound.”
by Silvio Contessi and Johanna Francis
posted on 2009-01-07
2009, No. 4: The Current Recession: How Bad Is It? (PDF 119k)
“In a recession, the severity of the decline is just as relevant as the duration of the recession.”
by Charles S. Gascon
posted on 2009-01-08
2009, No. 5: Bankers’ Acceptances: Yesterday’s Instrument to Restart Today’s Credit Markets? (PDF 129k)
“A bankers’ acceptance is created when a bank agrees to ‘accept,’ or guarantee, a future payment between two firms.”
by Richard G. Anderson
posted on 2009-01-09
2009, No. 6: The Fed’s Response to the Credit Crunch (PDF 78k)
“The Federal Reserve Board has used Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to create several new lending facilities to address the ongoing strains in the credit market.”
by Craig P. Aubuchon
posted on 2009-01-15
2009, No. 7: Bagehot on the Financial Crises of 1825…and 2008 (PDF 86k)
“Bagehot’s principal message is that the first task of a central bank during a financial panic is to end the panic.”
by Richard G. Anderson
posted on 2009-01-23
2009, No. 8: Markets Worry More about Sovereign Debt (PDF 116k)
"Market perceptions of sovereign
default risk have risen recently."
by Christopher J. Neely
posted on 2009-01-26
2009, No. 9: How Accurate Are Forecasts in a Recession? (PDF 94k)
“On average, professional forecasters have tended to be less accurate when the U.S. economy was in recession.”
by Michael W. McCracken
posted on 2009-02-06
2009, No. 10: Resolving a Banking Crisis, the Nordic Way (PDF 81k)
“The Nordic bank resolution is widely regarded as among the most successful in history.”
by Richard G. Anderson
posted on 2009-02-18
2009, No. 11: Putting the Financial Crisis and Lending Activity in a Broader Context (PDF 95k)
“Banks typically tighten credit standards and/or loan terms as the economy weakens and nonperforming loans increase. But an adverse shock from outside the financial sector can be just as important—such as a sharp increase in oil prices or a plunge in house prices.”
by Kevin L. Kliesen
posted on 2009-02-19
2009, No. 12: Recent Movements in the Baltic Dry Index (PDF 88k)
“The BDI can be viewed as the equilibrium price of shipping raw materials, determined by the supply of
cargo ships and the demand for
transporting raw materials by ship.”
by Rajdeep Sengupta and Yu Man Tam
posted on 2009-03-06
2009, No. 13: Federal Reserve Assets: Understanding the Pieces of the Pie (PDF 113k)
“One way to examine the composition
of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet is to group them according to the objectives of the programs used to acquire them.”
by Charles S. Gascon
posted on 2009-03-10
2009, No. 14: Bankers Acceptances and Unconventional Monetary Policy: FAQs (PDF 74k)
“Here, I answer selected questions asked by readers of my earlier essay.”
by Richard G. Anderson
posted on 2009-03-18
2009, No. 15: Recession or Depression? (PDF 90k)
“Although the current recession may…
be the longest in the postwar period,
it is by no means certain that it will
be the deepest, but it’s increasingly
looking that way.”
by Kevin L. Kliesen
posted on 2009-03-23
2009, No. 16: British Banking in Crisis (PDF 86k)
“The root of the problems of the British banks is the same as that of American banks: shaky mortgage-backed securities.”
by Richard G. Anderson and Andrew W. Mullineux
posted on 2009-04-03
2009, No. 17: Household Retrenchment (PDF 84k)
“Economic misfortunes have caused many to reassess their finances, triggering sharp reversals in borrowing and spending habits.”
by Riccardo DiCecio and Charles S. Gascon
posted on 2009-04-06
2009, No. 18: The Success of the CPFF? (PDF 102k)
“The CPFF is regarded as a hallmark of
success among credit-easing policies.”
by Richard G. Anderson
posted on 2009-04-07
2009, No. 19: Recession or Depression? Part II (PDF 70k)
“The economic performance during
the current recession is sharply
different from the 1929-33 episode
in most key respects, but not in all...”
by Kevin L. Kliesen
posted on 2009-04-14
2009, No. 20: What’s Under the TARP? (PDF 93k)
The Financial Stability Plan,
initiated under the belief that
“[t]here is more risk and greater cost
in gradualism than in aggressive
action,” has several features.
by Craig P. Aubuchon
posted on 2009-04-15
2009, No. 21: Can Monetary Policy Affect GDP Growth? (PDF 81k)
We merely want to see whether,
historically, fast growth of the
monetary base has been associated
with faster growth of real output.
by Yi Wen
posted on 2009-04-24
2009, No. 22: The Global Recession (PDF 86k)
...an unusually high percentage
of the world’s large countries and
major U.S. trading partners are
currently experiencing a recession.
by Craig P. Aubuchon and David C. Wheelock
posted on 2009-05-05
2009, No. 23: Lending Standards in Mortgage Markets (PDF 75k)
While the data seem to suggest
that lenders did the right thing
by tightening standards and
increasing denials...the ongoing
financial crisis suggests that they
did not tighten them enough.
by Carlos Garriga
posted on 2009-05-06
2009, No. 24: What the Libor-OIS Spread Says (PDF 137k)
“Libor-OIS remains a barometer of fears of bank insolvency.”
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-05-11
2009, No. 25: The Effect of the Fed’s Purchase of Long-Term Treasuries on the Yield Curve (PDF 86k)
Chairman Bernanke seems to suggest
that the purchase of a large quantity of
longer-term government securities
might reduce longer-term rates.
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-05-18
2009, No. 26: Taming the Long-Term Spreads (PDF 86k)
Given the size of the underlying
markets, cutting the cost of capital
to firms and households by reducing
the yields required on long-term
corporate bonds and mortgages
is a key policy objective.
by Massimo Guidolin and Yu Man Tam
posted on 2009-05-22
2009, No. 27: The U.S. Financial Sector's Value Added: Trends Now and Then (PDF 88k)
The U.S. financial growth between
1995 and 2006 certainly translated
into record-high shareholder returns.
Labor compensation returns were
also dramatically high at the onset
of the current crisis.
by Chanont Banternghansa and Adrian Peralta-Alva
posted on 2009-06-10
2009, No. 28: Dating the End of the Recession: Evaluating the Economic Indicators (PDF 96k)
Economists focus on certain indicators
that might signal when one business
expansion ends and the next one begins.
by Kevin L. Kliesen
posted on 2009-06-12
2009, No. 29: Uncertainty About When the Fed Will Raise Interest Rates (PDF 80k)
It’s hard to make a firm prediction as to
when the Fed will raise interest rates.
by Michael W. McCracken
posted on 2009-06-18
2009, No. 30: Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs (PDF 71k)
The sale of typical securities
would force the Fed to contract
its lending programs, whereas
the sale of Fed bills would not.
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-07-01
2009, No. 31: Asset Prices and Their Effect on the U.S. Trade Balance (PDF 90k)
Pronounced cycles and booms in asset prices have usually accompanied widening trade deficits.
by Luciana Juvenal
posted on 2009-07-06
2009, No. 32: What Caused Long-Term Rates to Rise? (PDF 107k)
The marked rise in longer-term rates is reflected in a rise in both real rates and expectations for inflation.
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-07-08
2009, No. 33: U.S. Migration Over the Life Cycle (PDF 83k)
Migration incentives for working-age and retired individuals are quite different and are sensitive to the level of human capital within the family.
by Rubén Hernández-Murillo
posted on 2009-07-09
2009, No. 34: Examining the Housing Crisis by Home Price Tier (PDF 87k)
When broken down by price level—high-priced, mid-priced, and lower-priced homes—the housing boom and subsequent implosion affected each tier differently.
by Michelle T. Armesto and Carlos Garriga
posted on 2009-08-03
2009, No. 35: World Trade: Pirated by the Downturn (PDF 86k)
A post-World War II record decline in world trade is likely in 2009.
by Cletus C. Coughlin
posted on 2009-08-04
2009, No. 36: Commercial Bank Lending Data during the Crisis: Handle with Care (PDF 118k)
Caution is necessary when making inferences based solely on aggregate loans data.
by Silvio Contessi and Hoda El-Ghazaly
posted on 2009-08-06
2009, No. 37: Would Quantitative Easing Sooner Have Tempered the Financial Crisis and Economic Recession? (PDF 69k)
Would financial markets and the economy have been better off if the Fed pursued a policy of quantitative easing sooner?
by Daniel L. Thornton
posted on 2009-08-17
2009, No. 38: How Not to Reduce Excess Reserves (PDF 88k)
Experience demonstrates that raising
reserve requirements is surely not the
best way to eliminate excess reserves.
by David C. Wheelock
posted on 2009-08-26
2009, No. 39: The Financial Services Sector: Boom and Recession (PDF 84k)
The fluctuations in home construction
(and prices) have been widely discussed,
but swings in the financial services
sector also are important elements of
economic activity within U.S. states.
by Richard G. Anderson
posted on 2009-09-14
2009, No. 40: Is the Financial Crisis Over? A Yield Spread Perspective (PDF 123k)
Our finding is consistent with some
recent, substantial volatility in the U.S. corporate bond market and leaves open a possibility that additional, future shocks to default premia may have long-lived effects.
by Massimo Guidolin and Yu Man Tam
posted on 2009-09-21
2009, No. 41: Monetary Policy Stance: The View from Consumption Spending (PDF 76k)
We should expect a third business cycle in succession in which the real federal funds rate reaches its trough well after the economy begins to recover.
by William T. Gavin
posted on 2009-10-22
2009, No. 42: Home Prices: A Case for Cautious Optimism (PDF 86k)
Many analysts are cautiously optimistic that the house price decline has ended, citing that house prices increased in June and July. There are several reasons for being cautious.
by Rajdeep Sengupta and Yu Man Tam
posted on 2009-10-29
2009, No. 43: International Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization (PDF 87k)
The changes in international trade
and finance are linked to the changes
in business cycle correlations.
by Luciana Juvenal
posted on 2009-10-30
2009, No. 44: Vacancies and Unemployment (PDF 87k)
Expansions are usually associated with plentiful vacancies and a low number of unemployed workers. During recessions the unemployment pool swells while employers seek to fill fewer job openings.
by Riccardo DiCecio and Charles S. Gascon
posted on 2009-11-12
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