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Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities    
Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted1967-06 to 2013-02 (May 1)
usa United States of America nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly recession indicators chauvet & piger chauvet, m. and j. piger academic data Time series data created mainly by academia to address growing demand in understanding specific concerns in the economy that are not well modeled by ordinary statistical agencies.
 
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1854-12 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Quarterly 1854:Q4 to 2012:Q4 (Feb 1)
Daily 1854-12-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
usa United States of America nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) nber National Bureau of Economic Research recession indicators peak trough quarterly daily
 
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1854-12 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Quarterly 1854:Q4 to 2012:Q4 (Feb 1)
Daily 1854-12-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
usa United States of America nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) nber National Bureau of Economic Research recession indicators trough peak quarterly daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1949-10 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1949-10-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
usa United States of America nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Germany from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1960-11 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1960-11-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development germany recession indicators peak trough daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for China from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1979-01 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1979-01-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development china recession indicators peak trough daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Japan from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1961-12 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1961-12-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development japan recession indicators peak trough daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Canada from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Daily 1961-03-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
Monthly 1961-03 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted daily frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators canada peak trough monthly
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Brazil from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1997-09 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1997-09-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough brazil daily
 
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1854-12 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1854-12-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
Quarterly 1854:Q4 to 2012:Q4 (Feb 1)
usa United States of America nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) nber National Bureau of Economic Research recession indicators peak trough daily quarterly
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Daily 1955-09-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
Monthly 1955-09 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted daily frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development united kingdom recession indicators trough peak monthly
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Spain from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1963-03 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1963-03-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough spain daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Sweden from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1961-02 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1961-02-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators trough peak sweden daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1997-08 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1997-08-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough india daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Korea from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1972-07 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1972-07-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators south korea trough peak daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Italy from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Daily 1960-10-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
Monthly 1960-10 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted daily frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators italy peak trough monthly
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Japan from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1961-12 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1961-12-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development japan recession indicators trough peak daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for South Africa from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1960-07 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1960-07-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough south africa daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Norway from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1961-07 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1961-07-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators trough peak norway daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for South Africa from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1960-07 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1960-07-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough south africa daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for China from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1979-01 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1979-01-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development china recession indicators peak trough daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for France from the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1960-12 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1960-12-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators france peak trough daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for Greece from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1961-05 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1961-05-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough greece daily
 
OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough    
+1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1949-10 to 2013-03 (Apr 2)
Daily 1949-10-01 to 2013-03-31 (Apr 2)
usa United States of America nation Country Level nsa Not seasonally adjusted monthly frb stl Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source) oecd Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recession indicators peak trough daily
 

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