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- nsa x 59,601Not seasonally adjusted
- usa x 55,444United States of America
- nation x 39,680Country Level
- monthly x 34,274
- recession indicators x 280
- academic data x 13Time series data created mainly by academia to address growing demand in understanding specific concerns in the economy that are not well modeled by ordinary statistical agencies.
- chauvet & piger x 1chauvet, m. and j. piger
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Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N)
2013-03: 0.64 Percent Last 5 Observations
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-06-03 1:46 PM CDT
| Source: | Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger |
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| Release: | U.S. Recession Probabilities |
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Notes:
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)
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