Mike Owyang

Standard Vita

IDEAS

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of California
San Diego
2000

M.A. Economics
University of California
San Diego
1996

B.A. Economics
University of California
Berkeley
1992

B.S. Mechanical Engineering
University of California
Berkeley
1992

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 444-8558
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: Michael.T.Owyang@stls.frb.org

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442

For media inquiries contact:
Laura Girresch
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-6166
Cell: (314) 348-3639

Michael T. Owyang

Assistant Vice President

Areas of Interest

  • Time Series Econometrics
  • Bayesian Econometrics
  • Markov Switching

Events

Applied Time Series Econometrics Workshop
Upcoming: November 7, 2014

Past Workshops

Selected Publications in Refereed Journals

"A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks"
with Neville Francis, Jennifer E. Roush, and Riccardo DiCecio
FORTHCOMING: Review of Economics and Statistics.

"Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data"
with Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2013, 103(3), pp. 129-34.

"Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing
with Ivana Komunjer
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4: 1066-1080.
Online Appendix

"The Propagation of Regional Recessions"
James D. Hamilton, Michael T. Owyang
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4: 935-947.

"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2005, 87(4), pp. 604-16.

"Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle"
with Neville Francis, University of North Carolina
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, July 2005, 23(3), pp. 305-13.

"Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement"
with Garey Ramey, University of California, San Diego
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2004, 51(8), pp. 1577-98.

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Working Papers

"Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery After Recessions"
with Neville Francis and Laura E. Jackson
Working Paper 2013-032C, posted October 2013, updated July 2014.

"Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy"
with Ana B. Galvão
Working Paper 2014-020A, posted July 2014.

"How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?"
with Neville Francis and Laura E. Jackson
Working Paper 2014-019A, posted July 2014.

"Clustered Housing Cycles"
with Rubén Hernández-Murillo and Margarita Rubio
Working Paper 2013-021A, posted June 2013.

"An Endogenously Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles"
with Neville Francis and Özge Savascin
Working Paper 2012-014A, posted April 2012.

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Current Research Projects

"Defining Financial Stress: An Application of the Factor-Augmented Smooth Transition Autoregression"
with Ana Beatriz Galvao

 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review

"Okun's Law over the Business Cycle: Was the Great Recession All That Different?"
with Tatevik Sekhposyan
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, 94(5), pp. 399-418.

"Disentangling Diverse Measures: A Survey of Financial Stress Indexes"
with Kevin L. Kliesen and E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, 94(5), pp. 369-398.

"Where There’s a Smoking Ban, There’s Still Fire"
with E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2012, 94(4), pp.265-286.

"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011, 93(3), pp. 207-222.

"Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation"
with Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Leslie S. Ott, and Denise Whalen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011, 93(3), pp. 169-186.

"Forecasting with Mixed Frequencies"
with Michelle T. Armesto and Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2010, 92(6), pp. 521-36.

"Nonlinear Effects of School Quality on House Prices"
with Abbigail Chiodo and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2010, 92(3), pp. 185-204.

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Other Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Publications

"Measuring the Effect of School Choice on Economic Outcomes"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2012, Vol 20(4), pp. 5-9.

"Unconventional Oil Production: Stuck in a Rock and a Hard Place"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, July 2010, pp. 14-15.

"A Winning Combination? Economic Theory Meets Sports"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, January 2009, pp. 10-13.

"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, October 2008, 4(1), pp. 15-29.

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Recent Commentary

"Employment Revision Asymmetries"
with E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 11.

"Okun's Law in Recession and Recovery"
with E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 23.

"Using Brent and WTI Oil Prices to Predict Gasoline Prices"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 36.

"When Do Recessions Begin and End?"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 38.

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