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Research Papers
- May 30, 2012. "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance. Paper | Presentation.
- January 13, 2012. "Death of a Theory," presented in St. Louis. Paper | Executive Summary | Presentation | Press Release | Related news articles | Blog post by Noah Smith: "Filling a hole or priming the pump?"
- "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two-Block World Economy," with Eric Schaling, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2009, 41(8), pp. 1585-1912. Working Paper Version (PDF 472K).
- "When Does Determinacy Imply Expectational Stability?," February 2008, Revised January 2009, with Stefano Eusepi, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2008-007B, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 266K).
- "The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners" November 2008, Revised July 2009, with Jacek Suda, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2008-043B, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 304K).
- "Worldwide Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy Rules," with Aarti Singh, Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2008, 55(Supplement 1), pp. S34-S47. Contributions to Macroeconomics in Honor of John Taylor - Supplement issue sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, containing selected papers from an October 12-13, 2007 conference honoring John Taylor. Working Paper Version (PDF 520K).
- "Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance," with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, American Economic Review, June 2008, 98(3), pp. 1163-77. Working Paper Version (PDF 468K).
- "A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance," with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, Macroeconomic Dynamics, April 2010, 14(2), pp. 166-88. Working Paper Version (PDF 439K).
- "A Leisurely Reading of the Life Cycle Consumption Data," with James Feigenbaum, Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2007, 54(8), pp. 2305-20. Working Paper Version (PDF 510K).
- "The Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Limited Enforcement," September 2007, Revised January 2010, with Gaetano Antinolfi and Costas Azariadis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2007-037C, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 267K).
- "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," with Kaushik Mitra, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2007, 39(5), pp. 1177-212. Download Mathematica programs: Lagmsv.pdf, Forwardmsv.pdf, Lagestability.pdf, and Forwardestability.pdf. Working Paper Version (PDF 486K).
- "Learning and the Great Moderation," with Aarti Singh, International Economic Review, May 2012, 53(2), pp. 375-97. Working Paper Version (PDF 289K).
- "Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules," March 2007, with Jasmina Arifovic and Olena Kostyshyna, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2007-007A, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 333K).
- "Learning and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Data," August 2004, with J. Duffy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-016A, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 396K).
- "Escapist Policy Rules" with In-Koo Cho, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, November 2005, 29(11), pp. 1841-65. Working Paper Version (PDF 590K).
- "Near-Rational Exuberance," October 2004, Revised September 2005, with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-025B, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 584K).
- "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?" with Stefano Eusepi, Review of Economic Dynamics, April 2005, 8(2), pp. 324-59. Working Paper Version (PDF 444K).
- "Trend-Reverting Fluctuations and the Life-Cycle Model" with Costas Azariadis and Lee Ohanian, Journal of Economic Theory, December 2004, 119(2), pp. 334-56. Working Paper Version (PDF 513K).
- "The Value of Inside and Outside Money" with Bruce D. Smith, Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2003, 50(2), pp. 389-417. Working Paper Version (PDF 564K).
- "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules" with Kaushik Mitra, Journal of Monetary Economics, September 2002, 49(6), pp. 1105-29. Working Paper Version (PDF 433K).
- "Intermediaries and Payments Instruments" with Bruce D. Smith, Journal of Economic Theory, April 2003, 109(2), pp. 172-97. Working Paper Version (PDF 585K).
- "Central Bank Design in General Equilibrium" with Christopher J. Waller, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2004, 36(1), pp. 95-114. Working Paper Version (PDF 284K).
- "Public and Private Circulating Liabilities" with Costas Azariadis and Bruce D. Smith, Journal of Economic Theory, July 2001, 99(1/2), pp. 59-116. Working Paper Version (PDF 570K).
- "Learning and Excess Volatility" with John Duffy, Macroeconomic Dynamics, April 2001, 5(2), pp. 272-302. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.6M).
- "The Value of Inside and Outside Money: Expanded Version," September 2001, with Bruce D. Smith, Federal Reserve of St. Louis Working Paper 2001-011A, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 549K).
- "How Costly is Sustained Low Inflation for the US Economy?" Revised March 1998, with Steven Russell, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working Paper 1997-012B, Abstract | Full Text (PDF 3.3M).
- "An Empirically Plausible Model of Low Real Interest Rates and Unbacked Government Debt" with Steve Russell, Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1999, 44(3), pp. 477-508. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.7M).
- "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs" with John Duffy, Computational Economics, February 1999, 13(1), pp. 41-60. Working Paper Version (PDF 1.1M).
- "On Learning and the Stability of Cycles" with John Duffy, Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 1998, 2(1), pp. 22-48. Working Paper Version (PDF 4.5M).
- "A Model of Learning and Emulation with Artificial Adaptive Agents" with John Duffy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 1998, 22(2), pp. 179-207. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.6M).
- "The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach" with Jasmina Arifovic and John Duffy, Journal of Economic Growth, June 1997, 2(2), pp. 185-209. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.4M).
- "The Long-run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies" with John Keating, Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1995, 36(3), pp. 477-96. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.3M).
- "Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, December 1994, 64(2), pp. 468-85. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.1M).
- "Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions" with A. Butler, Economic Journal, July 1993, 103(419), pp. 849-65. Working Paper Version (PDF 2.0M).
- "Time-varying Parameters and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations Under Least Squares Learning," Economics Letters, October 1992, 40(2), pp, 159-66.
