The theme of this year's conference is "Projecting Potential Growth: Issues and Measurement." Several leading participants in this literature will present their research and commentary.
All events are at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Conference Center, Sixth Floor
Please note that attendance is by invitation only.
To request to attend the conference, or for information about the conference or help with hotel reservations, please contact Denise Cain at denise.a.cain@stls.frb.org, (314) 444-8567, or 1-800-333-0810, ext. 44-8567.
| Conference Program | ||
| Thursday, October 16, 2008 | ||
| "Opening Remarks" | James B. Bullard, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | |
| "What Do We Know and Not Know About Potential Growth of the United States Economy?" | ||
| Presenters: | John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Susanto Basu, Boston College | |
| Discussant: | Rodolfo E. Manuelli, Washington University in St. Louis | |
| "Potential Growth in the OECD Countries: A Comparative Study" | ||
| Presenters: | Christophe Cahn, Banque de France Arthur Saint-Guilhem, European Central Bank | |
| Discussant: | Jon Faust, Johns Hopkins University | |
| "Parsing Shocks: Real-Time Revisions to Gap and Growth Projections for Canada" | ||
| Presenters: | Russell Barnett, Sharon Kozicki, and Christopher Petrinec, Bank of Canada | |
| Discussant: | Gregor W. Smith, Queen's University | |
| Note: The next two papers will be presented consecutively, followed by discussion. | ||
| "The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time" | ||
| Presenter: | Robert W. Arnold, Congressional Budget Office | |
| "Projecting Potential Growth at Macroeconomic Advisers" | ||
| Presenter: | Ken Matheny, Macroeconomic Advisers | |
| Discussants: | Robert J. Tetlow, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ellis W. Tallman, Oberlin College | |
| Friday, October 17, 2008 | ||
| "Measuring Potential Output in a Rapidly Developing Economy: The Case of China" | ||
| Presenter: | Jinghai Zheng, University of Gothenburg | |
| Discussant: | Xiaodong Zhu, University of Toronto | |
| "Projecting U.S. Potential GDP Growth with Vintage Data in a State-Space Framework" | ||
| Presenters: | Richard G. Anderson and Charles S. Gascon, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | |
| Discussant: | Dean Croushore, University of Richmond | |
| Panel Discussion: "The Role of Potential Growth in Policymaking" | ||
| Panelists: | Mário Mesquita, Central Bank of Brazil Seppo Honkapohja, Bank of Finland James B. Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | |
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