Fourteenth Annual Missouri Economics Conference
March 21-22, 2014
University of Missouri-Columbia
The Department of Economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia
and the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis and Kansas City
- All sessions are in the Reynolds Alumni Center
- Only presenting authors are listed on this program
- Registration Table outside room 202, Reynolds Alumni Center
- Papers are posted as received at: http://research.stlouisfed.org/conferences/moconf/2014/
FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 2014
Continental Breakfast – 8:00 a.m. (Alcove next to Registration Table)
Concurrent Session I – 9:00 a. m.-11:00 a.m.
A: Room 204 – Labor I
"Gender Wage Inequality during the Privatization"
Yang Jiao (Kansas State University)
"Offshoring and Dual Labor Markets in Developing Nations"
Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
"Human Capital Dynamics and the U.S. Labor Market"
Jun Nie (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
B: Room 208A – Housing
"An Analysis of SBA Loans in Low- and Moderate-Income and Minority Neighborhoods in Detroit and Michigan"
Maude Toussaint (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
"What Drives Housing Dynamics in China? A Sign Restrictions VAR Approach"
Timothy Yang Bian (Georgetown University)
"The Cyclical Behavior of the Price Level and Inflation: A Probabilistic Approach"
Joseph H. Haslag (University of Missouri - Columbia)
C: Room 208C – Microeconomics I
"Jet Fuel Cross Hedging: A Dynamic Copula GARCH Approach"
Tengda Cheng (University of Missouri - Columbia)
"An Empirical Investigation of Carve-outs Using a Structural Econometric Model"
Tyson Thomas (Kansas State University)
"Strategic Investment and Innovation of Products: Do Monopoly Profits Really Encourage Better Products?"
Jason Walter (Kansas State University)
D: Room 208D – International Economics I
"Estimating the Exchange Market Pressure: New Approaches"
Erhan Oruc (University of Kansas)
"Effect of Bilateral Aid Heterogeneity on Taxes, Public Investment and Consumption: Evidence from Pakistan"
Suleman Abdiah (Southern Illinois University-Carbondale)
"Out-of-Sample Nominal Exchange Rate Predictability Using Taylor Rule-Predicted Interest Rate Differentials"
Amrita Dhar (University of Houston)
E: Room 211 – Monetary Policy I
"Aggregate Shocks and the Two Sides of Credit Reallocation"
Riccardo DiCecio (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
"Home Production and Sticky Price Models: Implications for Monetary Policy"
Robert Lester (University of Notre Dame)
"Is it Save to Omit Sectoral Heterogeneity of Output Elasticities in a Monetary Policy Model?"
Constantin Bürgi (George Washington University)
Refreshment Break – Coffee, Juice, Tea, Soda – 11 a.m.-11:30 a.m.
(alcove next to Registration Table)
Concurrent Session II – 11:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m.
A: Room 204 – International Economics II
"Implications of Globalization for the Output-Inflation Relationship: An Assessment"
David D. VanHoose (Baylor University)
"Buyer-Seller Relationships in International Trade: Do Your Neighbors Matter?"
Fariha Kamal (U.S. Census Bureau)
Trade with Endogenous Market Power under Asymmetric and Incomplete Information"
Manitra A. Rakotoarisoa (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)
B: Room 208A – Macroeconomic Theory
"A Minimal Econometric Interpretation for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions"
Fei Tan (Indiana University-Bloomington)
"External Public Debt Holdings, Monetary and Fiscal Policy"
Hao Jin (Indiana University-Bloomington)
"Uncertain Technological Change"
Xiaohan Ma (The George Washington University)
C: Room 208C – Macroeconomics I
"The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Inflation"
Xue (April) Li (University of Missouri - Columbia)
"Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery After Recessions"
Michael T. Owyang (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
"Business Cycles Across Space and Time"
Daniel Soques (University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill)
D: Room 208D – Econometrics
"An Equilibrium Model of Moving-average Predictability and Time-series Momentum"
Guofu Zhou (Washington University in St. Louis)
"Estimation of Longrun Variance of Continuous Time Stochastic Process Using Discrete Sample"
Ye Lu (Indiana University)
"Out-of-Sample Forecast Model Averaging with Parameter Instability"
Anwen Yin (Iowa State University)
"Foundations of Flow-of-Funds Based National Accounting: Roman Law, Historical Costs and Economic Bubbles"
Masako Tsujimura (Keio University, Tokyo, Japan)
E: Room 211 – Monetary Policy II
"Monetary Policy Regime Switches and Macroeconomic Dynamics"
Andrew T. Foerster (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
"The Health of the Payment System on Dynamics within the Economy"
Rebecca Whitworth (University of Missouri - Columbia)
"The Impact of CDS on Firm Financing and Investment: Borrowing Costs, Spillovers, and Default Risk"
Matthew Darst (George Washington University)
Lunch Break – Deli Buffet – 1:30 p.m.-2:30 p.m. (Great Room)
(Alcove next to Registration Table) Name Tag admits you to lunch.
Concurrent Session III – 2:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.
A: Room 204 – Macroeconomics II
"Equilibrium Shirking, Access to Credit, and Endogenous TFP Fluctuations"
Milton Marquis (Florida State University)
"Productivity and Nationalization: Early Evidence and A Macroeconomic Analysis"
Nida Çakir Melek (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
"Asymmetric Effects of Tax Changes"
Samreen Malik (New York University)
"Government Investment and the Business Cycle in Oil-Exporting Countries"
Juan F. Guerra-Salas (Fordham University)
B: Room 208A – Economic Growth
"Marginal Product of Capital, the Business Cycle, and Forecasting Economic Growth" Teodora A. Stoica (Quinnipiac University)
"International Knowledge Flows and Technological Advance: The Role of Migration"
Kacey N. Douglas (University of Nebraska–Lincoln)
"Borrowers from a Different Shore: Asian Mortgage Market Outcomes"
Rajeev Darolia (University of Missouri - Columbia)
C: Room 208C – Labor II
"Endogenous Retirement and Pay-as-you-go Pensions"
Pan Liu (Iowa State University)
"Do Employers Prefer Workers who Attended For-Profit Colleges? Evidence from a Field Experiment"
Cory Koedel (University of Missouri-Columbia)
"The Link Between Retirement Wealth and Retirement Timing of Faculty"
Ioana Sofia Pacurar (University of Memphis)
"How do Workers Respond to Pension Enhancements"
P. Brett Xiang (University of Missouri-Columbia) D: Room 208D – Financial Crisis
"Which Hedge Fund Styles Hedge Against Bad Times?"
David E. Rapach (Saint Louis University)
"Macro-Financial Crisis in a Bankruptcy Framework"
Suchan Chae (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)
"An Open-Economy Model with Financial Frictions in Both the Real and the Financial Sectors"
Jorge Bravo (Georgetown University) E: Room 211 – Interest Rate Forecasting
"Predictability of Corporate Bond Returns: A Comprehensive Study"
Guofu Zhou (Washington University in St. Louis)
"Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks"
Olesya V. Grishchenko (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
"Forecasting Bond Excess Returns and Bond Yields"
Daniel L. Thornton (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
F: Room 212 – Health and Welfare
"The Effect of Kinship Placement on Foster Children’s Well-Being"
Iryna Hayduk (University of Houston)
"The Impact of State-level Anti-immigrant Laws on Immigrant Welfare Participation"
Qinping Feng (University of Illinois)
"Poverty and the Optimality of Family Planning Programs"
Xiying Liu (Iowa State University)
Refreshment Break – Coffee, Tea, Soda – 4:30 p.m.-5:00 p.m. (alcove next to Registration Table)
Plenary Session I – 5:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. (Room 208C)
"Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone"
Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Reception – 6:00 p.m. (Reynolds Alumni Center, Great Room)
Dinner – 7:30 p.m. (Reynolds Alumni Center, Great Room) Entrée card in holder with your name badge
SATURDAY, March 22, 2014
Continental Breakfast – 8:30 a.m. (alcove next to Registration Table)
Plenary Session II– 8:45 a.m.-9:45 a.m. (Room 208C)
"Linear Social Interactions Models"
Steven N. Durlauf, Kenneth J. Arrow Professor of Economics
(University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Concurrent Session IV – 10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.
A: Room 204 – Monetary Policy II
"Interest Rates, Money Supply and Unemployment: VECM Evidence with Markov-Switching Regimes"
Max Gillman (University of Missouri-St. Louis)
"Divisia Monetary Aggregate for the European Monetary Union"
Neepa Gaekwad-Babulal (University of Kansas)
"Nonlinear Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy"
Richard Anderson (Lindenwood University)
"The Bear Bond Market of May – August 2013: An Autopsy of the Taper Tantrum"
Christopher Neely (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
B: Room 208A – Trade and Growth
"Temporary Loss for the Long-run Growth"
Zhizhuang Ge (Arizona State University)
"Investigating the Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa"
Yusufu Unisa Kamara (University of Kansas)
"The Settlement of the United States, 1800 to 2000: The Long Transition Towards Gibrat’s Law"
Jordan Rappaport (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
C: Room 208C – Macroeconomics III
"How Did the Financial Crisis Alter the Correlations of U.S. Yield Spreads?"
Silvio Contessi (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
"Experimental Markets Comparing Risk Allocation of Arrow-Debreu Securities with Swaps"
Ron Harstad (University of Missouri-Columbia)
"Did High Treasury Bill Rates Affect Economic Growth?-The Case of Jamaica"
Prudence Serju (Michigan State University)
D: Room 208D – Economic Issues
"The Impact of Monetary Policy and Firm Characteristics on Firms’ Short-term Assets, Liabilities, Term Structure
of Debt and Liquidity Ratios: Evidence from U.S. Industrial Firms"
Gaurango Banerjee (Lindenwood University)
"Growth Dynamics of Neoclassical Open Economies"
Li Li (Georgetown University)
"How do Business Cycles Become Global? Common Shocks or Spillovers?"
Chris Otrok (University of Missouri - Columbia)
E: Room 211 – Macroeconomic Policy
"Does U.S. Labor Market Exist?"
Jaya Dey (St. Louis University)
"Asymmetric Effects of Government Purchases in Different Economic Environments"
Christopher Biolsi (University of Houston)
"A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law"
Ruben Hernandez-Murillo (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
"Information Asymmetry around Operational Risk Announcement"
Anna Chernobai (Syracuse University)
F: Room 212 – Microeconomics II
"Election Times Are Different: Bureaucratic Institutions and Political Budget Cycles in American State Governments"
David Bostashvilli (University of Houston)
"Influence of Level of Corruption on Individual Subjective Well-Being on the Example of Russia"
Daria Milakhina (University of Kansas)
"Market Reputation, Information Sharing and Boardroom Collusion: Theory"
Zhenhua Wu (Arizona State University)